I refer to the shift in the Middle East in the last 14 months. In our wildest dreams we could not have imagined the way in which Israel would rally following the massacre of October 7.
It stunned us at first: the heartless cruelty and the ugliness. Some 1,200 dead, others wounded, over 200 taken hostage. But we learned our painful and bitter lesson, recognizing the existential moment for what it was. We pulled ourselves together and moved forward with confidence in the righteousness of our path and with solid determination to win (with solid understanding of the absolute necessity of winning).
Our achievements have been possible because we have the most marvelous and devoted soldiers.
And because we have had a strong and determined Binyamin Netanyahu at our helm.
We have demonstrated great ingenuity and boldness. We have relied upon superb intelligence and utilized cutting-edge, precision weaponry.
But we must never, ever forget that our achievements have been possible because we have help from Above.
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I am not suggesting that we are, metaphorically speaking, home free now. A host of problems continue to confront us, and we must continue to deal with them. I will, of course, continue to write about them. But I believe it’s time to take a look at what has been gained to date, even as we look at all that is still to be dealt with.
As a nation, we came to a place (finally, finally, thank Heaven!) of understanding that offering goodwill and compromise to ruthless enemies is a lethal mistake. As many commentators put it, we took off our gloves.
We did this while facing a most horrendous onslaught of international hatred plus reluctance among many of our putative friends to fully support us. In many quarters the world fashioned us as the bad guys so that the world seemed upside down: libels about our actions were quickly swallowed as truth. The most “popular” charge was that Israel, which fights with the greatest level of care for enemy civilians, was committing genocide.
See here: https://worldisraelnews.com/gaza-civilian-death-toll-massively-inflated-report/
But we didn’t cave. We took our own counsel.
Biden said we shouldn’t go into Rafah, and we went, cutting off the routes Hamas utilized for smuggling weapons. We agreed to a “ceasefire” in Lebanon (under duress from Biden, it should be noted) but insisted that we would enforce its strictures – and we are doing just that, hitting Hezbollah when there are violations.
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Prior to October 7, Israel was surrounded by Iranian proxies that constituted a “circle of fire” envisioned by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC) as ultimately being able to take Israel down: In Gaza, on our southwest, the Iranian proxy Hamas; in Lebanon, to our north, the powerfully armed Hezbollah, a key Iranian proxy that possessed a huge arsenal including a number of precision-guided missiles. In Syria, to our northeast, the despot Assad, who permitted the establishment on Syrian territory of Iranian bases and weapon production sites and allowed Iranian weapons to be smuggled across the Syrian border to Hezbollah. At a secondary level, Iranian forces in Iraq, and the Houthis, an Iranian proxy in Yemen
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The war against Hamas began immediately following the massacre. Within a week, the ground operation had begun, and continues to this day, at a reduced pace.
As a result, Hamas, is now a mere shadow of what it once was: Not absolutely defeated, but close. All formal battalions have been taken out by the IDF, while bands of terrorists, seeking ways to reinvigorate themselves, remain. Their activities will require consistent monitoring. A fair percentage of Hamas tunnels and command centers (hardly all of them) have been discovered and destroyed. The number of tunnels has seemed endless – another and another and another, calling attention to the years of effort and the billions of dollars Hamas invested in this project. Hamas’s arsenal of weapons has been close to depleted and cannot be replenished via smuggling from the Sinai because Israel controls the Philadelphi Corridor.
Hamas’s major leaders have been taken out. Among them: Ismail Haniyeh, head of the political bureau, in July; he was killed while on an official visit in Tehran. Mohammed Deif, head of Hamas’s military wing Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades – who seemed indestructible, so many times had he evaded attacks; he was killed in an airstrike in August. And finally, after much searching, Yahya Sinwar (pictured), head of Hamas in Gaza and mastermind of the massacre, was located in an abandoned house in Rafah and shot dead in October.
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The original plan for the October 7 massacre involved Hezbollah, which was to act simultaneously with Hamas, generating a two-prong attack. But Hamas acted ahead of schedule and the element of surprise was no longer available to Hezbollah. This group then began launching barrages of rockets at Israel’s north – according to the IDF, over 8,000 were launched, starting on October 8, 2023 – as a sign of support for Hamas. It was what we might call a low-intensity war, or a prelude to a war, with Israel responding to the rocket attacks. Close to 100,000 residents of northern Israel fled south because they were at risk. Large swaths of agricultural land and nature reserves were severely damaged. In September we began seriously degrading Hezbollah, beginning with the exploding beepers – an amazing operation.
This October, the IDF entered south Lebanon and began to act seriously against Hezbollah. Weapons caches were destroyed, and terrorists were killed. Most of the commanders at the upper echelons were taken out, but the greatest achievement was getting leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, in an airstrike in September.
Hezbollah has not been definitively taken out but has been seriously weakened and demoralized. This terror group no longer looms as the threat it once was. Needless to say, like Hamas, it seeks to strengthen as it can – recruiting and acquiring new weapons. At the end of November, a ceasefire was put in place that requires Hezbollah to move back behind the Litani River – as stipulated by UNSC resolution 1701 – over the course of 60 days and ultimately disarm. Israel has insisted on monitoring and responding to violations, as there is no other entity capable of doing this, not the Lebanese army and not UNIFIL. The outcome here remains sketchy, but even if the ceasefire falls apart, Iran’s path to sending new weapons to Hezbollah via Syria has been cut off, as has Iran’s ability to produce new rockets. (see below).
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Then there is Iran, which is at the heart of the terrorist activities described above.
In April of this year, Israel took out IRGC officer Mohammed Zahedi. Within two weeks, Iran responded by launching 300 missiles and drones toward Israel. Israel, working with a coalition of other nations – primarily the US and France, took out most of the projectiles before they reached Israeli air space. Damage was absolutely minimal and the fact that the Iranian weapons were not of superior quality was exposed. Israel then retaliated by destroying part of an S-300 long-range air defense system in Isfahan, Iran. It was a low-key response designed to demonstrate what we were capable of without creating an escalation.
At the end of July, the IDF took out Haniyeh of Hamas; he was in Tehran at the time, which the Iranians viewed as an insult. In late September, the IDF then took out Nasrallah, a linchpin of Iran’s proxy Hezbollah. Now Iran responded again, launching 180 ballistic missiles towards Israel in two intensive waves, at the beginning of October. The majority of missiles – which were aimed at military installations – were intercepted; some damage was reported.
On October 25, Israel responded again, in what was a brilliantly planned and executed attack. Over 100 planes, including F-35 “Adir” stealth fighters, traveled some 2,000 kilometers (roughly 1,243 miles) to reach Iran. On the way to Iran, we took out radar installations in Syria positioned to pick up an attack on Iran that was on the way. In this sense, Iran was “blinded.” Radar and air defense systems within Iran itself were subsequently attacked. Among the air defense systems taken out were S-300s, which had been supplied by Russia. Israel now has an increased range of freedom of movement in the Iranian skies. The IAF then moved on to attack military sites. The attacks did major damage, and we managed with no losses. Our planes returned intact.
Oil fields, refineries, and nuclear development sites were not hit. The attack was intended to cripple the Iranian regime, not bring it down. The attacks on some 20 military sites were executed in three waves, seriously compromising Iran’s military capabilities and hindering Iran’s ability to further attack Israel. Fuel mixing facilities at Parchin and elsewhere were attacked. This was a major accomplishment as solid fuel is utilized in ballistic missiles. Estimates are that it will likely take the Iranians two years to replace the destroyed mixers – if at all they can.
There were expectations that Iran would retaliate for this attack, but it has not. Word is that the supreme leader of Iran Ali Hosseini Khamenei is frightened.
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And last, we come to Syria, which is in enormous flux since Assad was overthrown. Israel was not directly responsible for his overthrow, but certainly created the conditions that made it possible: Assad’s allies, Iran and Hezbollah, were in no position to come to his aid because they had been weakened by Israel.
Predictions that Abu Mohammed al-Julani, who heads the coalition that overthrew the Syrian dictator, would turn out not to be a moderate, despite his claims, have turned out to be accurate. Last Saturday, he declared that the new Syrian regime would operate according to Sharia Law and spoke about morality police who would ensure that the public adheres to that law.
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/400727
Morality police rings bells loud and clear – it certainly does not signal a regime that will be moderate. But at this point at least, Al-Julani is making all the right noises in terms of wanting peace, good relations with Israel, etc. But it’s just talk until he proves himself. His goal now is to get Israel to go back behind the demilitarized zone and completely out of Syria.
Israel, however, is adamant about not pulling back until there is certainty that matters are calm and there is no danger of an Islamist movement against Israel. Within two days of Assad’s downfall, Israel had eliminated 85% of the Syrian military equipment, including planes, ships and weaponry. This was to ensure that no radical group would be able to use that equipment against Israel. And we have acted additionally since. On Sunday night there were heavy Israeli airstrikes in Syria’s coastal Tartus region, apparently targeting military sites. Israel has total air superiority over Syria.
https://worldisraelnews.com/israeli-air-force-declares-total-air-superiority-over-syria/
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On Sunday, the Cabinet had approved funds to encourage demographic growth on the Israeli side of the Golan. “Strengthening the Golan is the strengthening of the State of Israel, and is especially important at this time,” said Netanyahu.
Our prime minister has made it clear we have no permanent designs on Syria and are amenable to good relations with the new regime. But Al-Julani has yet to consolidate various rebel groups into one coherent regime. What is more a menacing Turkey, which already has control over one area of Syria, has troops at the Syrian border. At threat is the Kurdish population, supported by the US.
So much have matters shifted that a handful of Druze villages in the Syrian Golan – seeking safety from the Islamists – have asked to be annexed to Israel. Have no idea what will become of this, but it is certainly a sign of the times.
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And so there we are, to date: The face of the Middle East has changed radically, and Israel is at the heart of these changes!
Israel is the military power in the Middle East and has achieved new recognition internationally.
It is up to us now to stay strong and determined and to fashion a future that enhances our situation. Israel’s role is, and will continue to be, a blessing for the region.
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A quick look then, at what we can see going forward.
It is important to note that in less than five weeks Donald Trump returns to the White House. We have solid reason to believe that this will bring about positive changes in Israel’s relationship with the US. Trump, for example, will not slow down delivery of weapons that Israel has paid for, as Biden has done.
The most significant shift may be concerning Iran. While Biden had tried to hold Israel back with regard to how hard we hit Iran, there are now hints (hints, not officially enunciated policy) that Trump is considering either attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities or giving Israel the equipment to do so.
It should be noted that Israel took out warning radar when attacking Iran with an eye towards making it easier to accomplish additional attacks. This was understood at the time.
Iran is devastated by the undoing of its proxies. It reportedly sees moving quickly on development of nuclear weapons as its best option. Thus, taking out Iran’s ability to proceed here is of critical importance. There is no time for delay.
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There is concern about increased Islamist terrorism in Judea & Samaria – as Iran seeks to build this area up as an Islamist front. There are issues with regard to the role of the PA in some of these areas. Israel must remain exceedingly vigilant and active on this front.
The flip side of the situation here is increased Israeli development in Judea & Samaria. I will be following this. Just as demographic strength is important in Golan, so is it here.
https://worldisraelnews.com/idf-order-could-kick-off-big-expansion-of-judea-and-samaria-cities/
Similarly, there is concern about radicals overthrowing King Abdullah in Jordan. Israeli and Jordanian officials are consulting on this.
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As a mark of our increased vigilance post Oct. 7, there is announcement now of the establishment of five new light infantry brigades for reservists to carry out defensive missions along the various borders, according to the operational needs.
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There are two outstanding issues of major significance that remain with regard to Hamas and IDF activity in Gaza.
The first is the painful, the obscene, behavior of Hamas with regard to hostages. They abducted 251 hostages on October 7, including women, children, and elderly and have been subjecting them to horrendous conditions. Of these, 117 have been returned alive to Israel, with 105 released in a prisoner exchange deal, four released by Hamas unilaterally and eight rescued by the IDF. The bodies of additional hostages have been retrieved.
It is estimated that Hamas now holds 100 hostages, of whom about 30 are thought to be alive. At present negotiations are going on that seem to have a chance of success. The fact that Hamas is said to be agreeing to certain parameters is an indication that they are hurting badly. Until now, Hamas has insisted hostages would only be released if the war terminated and the IDF pulled out.
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And then there is the “day after” issue. Israel will insist on a presence at the Philadelphi Corridor, at the border with the Sinai, and at the Netzarim Corridor, which divides north and south Gaza, as well as a right to act inside Gaza.
Defense Minister Katz had this to say yesterday: “…my position regarding Gaza is clear. After we defeat Hamas’s military and governing power in Gaza, Israel will maintain security control in Gaza with full freedom of action, just as in Judea and Samaria. We will not allow any terrorist group to organize against Israeli communities and citizens from Gaza. We will not allow a return to the reality that existed before Oct. 7.”
https://www.jns.org/katz-israel-to-maintain-security-control-in-gaza-after-war/
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Please, pray with a full heart…
[] for the safety of the Jewish People everywhere,
[] for the continued strength and courage of Israel’s leaders as they make the hard decisions,
[] for the safety of our soldiers in battle as they fight a righteous war,
[] and for the rescue of the hostages.
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©Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by independent journalist Arlene Kushner. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution.
