These are historic times, with enormous changes taking place in the Middle East. And so, this is my second look at what is happening in Syria and how it affects Israel. It is likely that there will be a third look and perhaps a fourth over time, as we watch this scenario unfold. Complicated, hardly describes it.
Alma – an Israeli organization that monitors Israeli security issues – describes the rebel forces as including four main organizations.
“Each umbrella organization encompasses numerous sub-organizations (often with other organizations under them), representing a diverse range of ideologies, thereby highlighting the intricacy and vulnerability of the alliances in Syria. Power struggles will continue to accompany the dynamic situation in Syria…” (Emphasis added)
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Syria is a mix of Sunni Muslim (which predominates), Shi’ite Muslim, Alawite (a minority group that is a spin-off of Shi’ite), and Christian. Additionally, there are various ethnic groups, such as Kurdish, Druze, Armenian and Assyrian. And so, one major question now is whether Syria will (is even able to) come together as one state or will exist as a coalition of different canons and ethnicities. Currently different areas are in the hands of different groups, and outside forces—notably Turkey—have influence as well.
Caroline Glick, in a recent podcast, makes an important observation about this situation. At the end of WWI and the fall of the Ottoman Empire, the UK and France struck an agreement, called Sykes-Picot, to determine the spheres of control of each of these two nations. In order to do this, they drew borders, fashioning nominal nation-states out of areas that had been merely a coalescence of tribal groups without a national identity.
Syria, along with Iraq and Lebanon, came into being in this fashion, under the influence of France. Lacking a genuine national identity, these new states were held together by repressive means – in the case of Syria, by the Alawites for over 50 years by the Assad family.
The current situation in Syria is the legacy of Sykes-Picot.
https://www.jns.org/assads-downfall-israels-opportunity-to-think-big/
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The first and most significant of the four main umbrella organizations that Alma describes is Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS), led by Abu Muhammed al Jolani (sometimes referred to as Ahmed Hussein al-Shara’a); this group leads the coalition of rebel forces. Formerly associated with Al Qaeda/Al-Nusra Front, Jolani now disavows this connection but appears to be an Islamist still.
The Syrian National Army (SNA), backed by Turkey, is acting against the Kurdish-led, US-supported Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
Lastly, there is the Southern Operation Command, comprised of local rebel groups—predominantly Sunni and Druze. But this hardly exhausts the list of various groups operating in Syria.
Jonathan Schanzer, Senior Vice President of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, writes:
“Some analysts believe that a consolidated Syrian state under Sunni control, after more than half a century of dominance by the country’s Alawite minority, could portend stability. Still others believe that sectarian cantons could emerge. Still others see the eventual Balkanization of the country. It’s obviously too soon to predict, but it certainly seems as if the Sunni rebels will dominate most if not, all of the country when the guns fall silent.
https://www.commentary.org/jonathan-schanzer/assad-end-in-syria/
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Within this mélange of different groups, there are certainly issues of competition – some big issues – which create a potential for instability. At this point, however, there are indications that the rebels in control, that is HTS, are cognizant of the dangers of unrest and are working to promote stability.
Mohammed al-Bashir has been appointed as the interim prime minister until March 1.
He has already held a cabinet meeting and is working to transfer files and institutions to the caretaker government. Institutions such as banks are already open and operating and Al-Bashir has gone on TV calling for calm. Actually, he said it’s time for the people to enjoy the new situation.
Al-Bashir was head of the rebel-led Salvation Government in the region of Idlib, in northwest Syria. For a period of time it functioned as a state, with some four million people living under its rule. The rebels now pride themselves on being able to call upon the technocrats from the Salvation Government to help in the governance of Syria.
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A word of caution however: stability and the ability to manage governance are not indicators of moderation. The Salvation Government was run according to Islamic law. Al-Bashir, who was trained and worked as an engineer, also has a degree in Sharia law.
It did not pass notice that when Al-Jolani gave an interview for CNN, the interviewer wore a hijab.
Was this done voluntarily as a courtesy, asked one uneasy commentator, or did Al-Jolani require this?
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One aspect of the situation that might be seen as positive is the eagerness with which Syrian refugees who fled the vicious reign of Assad by the hundreds of thousands are preparing to return to their homeland. It is certainly positive for the European states where these refugees have been living. But does it tell us anything about the moderation of the rebels running Syria now? These refugees are, in the main, Sunnis who fled the violence of the Alawites. And some of them, surely, are themselves Islamists.
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What we are looking at then – as we ponder the various aspects of the situation – is one of the over-riding issues of concern for Israel: How much have Al-Jolani and HTS truly moderated, all declarations aside.
Returning to Schanzer’s observations, we see that he is convinced that what we are watching unfold is a bad scene in spite of positive aspects (emphasis added):
“…There is no reason to believe that this group (HTS) is moderate, let alone pragmatic. Some might point to the patronage of nominal American allies Qatar and Turkey as reason to hold out hope. But it is worth remembering that Qatar, even though it is a ‘Major Non-NATO ally’ of the United States, is a sponsor of Hamas, Al-Qaeda, the Taliban and even the Islamic State. Turkey, an actual NATO member, has also served as a patron of Hamas, Al-Qaeda, and the Islamic State. Ankara helped Iran launder more than $20 billion in cash and gold, right at the height of the U.S. sanctions campaign designed to hinder its nuclear advances between 2012 and 2016. Both regimes and their leaders are avowed supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood and its associated Islamist movements. To put it mildly, this is not a recipe for regional peace…
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Dr. Moti Kedar, a scholar of Arabic culture who served for 25 years in IDF military intelligence, put it thus: “There are no good guys. We have to find out who the bad guys are and who is worst.” Thus the title of this posting. Listen to Moti’s comments:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=BS55VzZKkr8
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And then there is another area of Israeli concern: the desire of President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who is definitely one of the very bad guys, to violently impose himself in Syria. Turkey already controls territory in the north of Syria adjacent to the Turkish border and has been attacking Kurdish forces of the SDF.
Schanzer describes it well (emphasis added):
“Whatever the map ultimately looks like, we are watching the return of a competition between two storied Middle East empires. The Iranian aspirations for a resurrected Persian empire experienced a massive setback yesterday. But those in Turkey seeking a neo-Ottoman order in the Middle East are elated. [The Ottoman Empire was Turkish.] In other words, Syria has flipped from an Iranian satrap to an Ottoman sanjak overnight.”
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Analyst Seth Frantzman is among those who have expressed concern and provides a clue as to how ugly the situation might get (emphasis added):
“The attacks by the SNA once again show how Turkey is exploiting the situation in Syria to target the SDF. This is catastrophic for civilians because the SNA has a terrible track record of human rights abuses in the areas it controls…The fall of the Assad regime should not lead to a new conflict.”
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So, do we celebrate the fact that Assad has been taken down when we know that there are “bad guys” vying for control in Syria, and that we may see instability in the region?
I continue to believe we should.
First, because the forces currently at work in Syria, malign though they may be, have not nearly the might of Iran, which was behind Assad. Syria is no longer a part of the “circle of fire” being envisioned by Iran to encircle Israel. This is huge.
And then because Israeli leaders, governmental and military alike, are savvy and prepared to act for Israeli security. No, we ARE acting, decisively. We are showing strength at the border with Syria and in the demilitarized zone, in order to ensure that jihadist forces don’t enter Israel. Additionally, we are going into Syria and taking out weapons that belonged to the Assad regime so that the new regime cannot turn them against us.
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Defense Minister Yisrael Katz said yesterday (Tuesday), emphasis added:
“The IDF has been operating in Syria in recent days to destroy strategic capabilities that threaten the State of Israel. The Navy operated last night to destroy the Syrian fleet with great success.”
“I warn the rebel leaders in Syria: Whoever follows Assad’s path will end up like Assad.
“We will not allow an extremist Islamic terrorist entity to act against Israel across its border and at the risk of its citizens. We will do everything necessary to remove this threat…
“Again, I warn and emphasize – we will not allow anyone to threaten the residents of the Golan, the citizens of the State of Israel, and we will act with a strong hand against any organization.”
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Since Assad fell on Sunday, Israel has hit 250 military targets in Syria; at least three major army air bases that housed helicopters and jets were among the targets. Strikes also hit advanced missile storage sites, air defense systems, weapon production facilities, and chemical weapons sites that were part of the Assad regime.
“…officials believe the Syrian Air Force will be all but destroyed in a matter of days, ensuring that the rebel groups, and any future government, will not be able to threaten Israel from the air.”
Israel’s Ambassador to the UN Danny Dannon wrote a letter to the UN Security Council, “It is important to emphasize…that Israel is not intervening in the ongoing conflict between Syrian armed groups; our actions are solely focused on safeguarding our security.” He additionally indicated that Israel remained committed to the framework of a 1974 Separation of Forces Agreement.
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(A note about Assad: I had previously written that there were reports he had gone down in a plane crash when fleeing Syria, but this appears to not be the case. Reports now are that he is in Russia.)
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Please, pray with a full heart…
[] for the safety of the Jewish People everywhere,
[] for the continued strength and courage of Israel’s leaders as they make the hard decisions,
[] for the safety of our soldiers in battle as they fight a righteous war,
[] and for the rescue of the hostages.
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©Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by independent journalist Arlene Kushner. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution.
