Dear friends, I don’t remember when I last referred to our situation as hopeful, but I am grateful to be able to do so before Pesach.
~~~~~~~~~~
Please!! Continue to the bottom of this posting for recommendations for making donations before Pesach. Giving is traditional but especially important this year.
Keep in mind that we have soldiers – both those doing their regular service in the army and those called in for reserve duty – in Gaza, at the border of Gaza, and in the north near Hezbollah in Lebanon. There are also thousands of people displaced from their homes in the north because of the threat of Hezbollah.
~~~~~~~~~~
While now we are able to see a hopeful situation going forward, after Iran attacked Israel late last Saturday night, we here in Israel coped with confusion and, indeed, a good measure of anger. The bulk of the information that came to us was via unverified “reports” and rumors that often presented different pictures. Nor was any stability evident: the situation was complex and shifted in the blink of an eye.
~~~~~~~~~~
What I did perceive that was positive, following Iran’s attack, was that the international community, and Biden in particular, were not focusing on our “sins” committed in Gaza or on the purported starvation of the poor civilians there. A great relief. Instead, they were talking about applying sanctions on Iran.
Nu! I wanted to yell at them: for years you ignored the warnings of our prime minister and preferred to enable the mullahs to move towards nuclear capability.
Remember this, from 2012? Obama mocked Netanyahu’s warning.
Obama was a horror with regard to being pro-Iran, and Biden is his protégé. But now, now there was attention being paid to punitive diplomatic measures to be taken against Iran for its attack on Israel.
~~~~~~~~~~
Yet there was a catch. The Western world was telling Israel that they would take care of Iran with sanctions. We should not think of attacking Iran, as this might cause an escalation that would involve them.
In my last posting I made the case for an Israeli reprisal attack. The scope of the Iranian attack necessitated a response.
https://arlenefromisrael.info/21096-2/
A handful of ballistic missiles – some five, out of 110 that were headed towards our border – did make their way into Israeli airspace. I knew they were very large: the overwhelming sound of their being taken down over Jerusalem rendered me keenly aware of this. WOW!
But it wasn’t until this week when I saw a picture of a ballistic missile that had landed in the Dead Sea after being attacked that I realized quite how large. And this, 36 feet long, was only 70% of the missile, the fuel tank; the warhead (weighing an estimated 1,100 pounds) and engine were destroyed during interception.
That is IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari standing next to the rocket. He said: “Iran knew that when she was firing over 110 ballistic missiles — besides the cruise missiles, the rockets, the drones — firing 110 ballistic missiles is an escalation to the region… a dangerous escalation.”
“We will respond the way that we will choose at the time that we will choose. We don’t just have defensive capabilities — that were proven on Saturday night — We have offensive capabilities. We will know what to do and when to do and how to do.”
https://www.timesofisrael.com/idf-shows-remains-of-iranian-ballistic-missile-that-fell-in-dead-sea/
What he was saying was obvious on the face of it. The claims that were made, that Iran did not intend a serious attack, were nonsense. This was the biggest attack in modern warfare.
I add here that there were another 200-300 projectiles that had been launched by Iran that night, which fell short and landed elsewhere.
THIS, as Admiral Hagari indicated, was the escalation, not something Israel might now do.
For Israel to fail to respond to such a massive attack by Iran, would be to allow the Islamic Republic to believe that the international community would restrain Israel and that they would have immunity to attack again.
~~~~~~~~~~
Last Sunday, there were extensive debates in Israel’s War Cabinet; then the Security Cabinet arrived at a decision to hit Iran in a significant manner.
The War Cabinet was charged with deciding on the precise nature of that attack. The timing and manner of that attack were, of course, not revealed, but it was believed that it would happen soon.
We braced for it.
Yet the international community was still pumping for Israel to refrain from that attack. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin spoke to Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant on Tuesday, urging Israel to “uphold regional stability.”
https://www.jns.org/us-defense-chief-urges-israel-to-uphold-regional-stability/
The gall of this. Regional stability had been up ended by the Iranian attack.
A day later Blinken told Gantz that the US did not want any further escalation in the Mid East.
https://www.jns.org/blinken-to-gantz-us-does-not-want-to-see-escalation-with-iran/
~~~~~~~~~~
By mid-week news broke that the War Cabinet had decided on a major attack on Iran that was to take place on Monday (actually attacks were planned twice).
At first, it was said by Israeli sources that that attack was cancelled for “operational” reasons.
“Operational”? The information soon emerged that Biden had gotten on the phone with Netanyahu and reinforced in strong terms the US objections to an Israeli response to Iran.
It is one thing to voice objections; it is another to threaten. And it would be reasonable to see Biden’s refusal not only to support a reprisal attack on Iran but also a refusal to help protect Israel once again if there were additional Iranian attacks on Israel as a threat. This is particularly the case because of veiled hints that aid Israel needs might not be forthcoming if Israel caused an escalation.
The defense against Iranians projectiles cost Israel roughly one billion dollars.
https://www.jns.org/israel-shelved-iran-strike-plans-due-to-us-pressure-report/
Netanyahu had met with British Foreign Secretary David Cameron and German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock at the Prime Minister’s Office and subsequently reported that he had told them that their advice was appreciated, but that Israel was a sovereign nation and would make her own decisions.
But they don’t have the leverage that Biden has. As much as I would love to see our prime minister speak to the US president this way, it is clear why it would have been very difficult and likely counterproductive for him to have done so.
What is most enraging is the Biden’s duplicity: embracing Israel with a hug of unlimited support one moment, and on a dime turning to refuse all support the next.
I have given thought to the damage done by Biden and the international community – effectively signaling Iran that Israel will be restrained.
~~~~~~~~~~
What further emerged in the news, however, was a deal reached between Netanyahu and Biden that if Israel either did not attack at all or attacked very moderately, so as to not stimulate an escalation, Biden would allow Israel to move militarily into Rafah in the south of Gaza – a move essential for defeat of Hamas.
That Biden wields this sort of control with regard to Gaza is itself infuriating. He has blocked us in numerous ways. But if, in fact, we can move south in Gaza without US interference, this is very good news.
https://worldisraelnews.com/us-agrees-to-rafah-invasion-for-small-iranian-strike-egyptian/
The best information I have is that Netanyahu maneuvered this deal with Biden, and Kol Hakavod to him for this – it was a clever move.
I surmise that Biden was so eager to stop a major Israeli reprisal on Iran that he agreed to something he would not have considered otherwise.
~~~~~~~~~~
News reports led us to believe that if Israel did attack Iran in moderate fashion, it would not happen until after Pesach.
But our nation awoke this morning to reports that we had indeed attacked with UAVs (activated inside of Iran, I believe) on a military base in Isfahan province in the center of Iran. There was also attack on a site in Syria.
https://www.jns.org/report-israel-attacks-iran/
The purpose of the attack, as I understand it, is to let the Iranians know with clarity that we have the capacity to attack in the center of their country. Both this warning and the act of retaliation were important here – not the scope of damage done.
The Iranians are denying they have been attacked, which is typical. In denying, they are saving face but also indicating that there is no intention to retaliate.
~~~~~~~~~~
I am hopeful because we did strike Iran in a manner that provides a warning and did so without stimulating a reprisal. The Western world, which should be content now, must follow through on its commitments.
One, of course, is to apply sanctions on Iran. They must be tough.
The other is to sit back and allow us to do what we need to do in Rafah in order to take out Hamas.
Effective sanctions can weaken Iran. More significantly, taking out its proxy Hamas in Gaza will be a major blow. Iran, as I have written, seeks to surround Israel with Islamist terror groups.
Additionally, there is the cooperation between Gulf states and Israel in the face of the Iranian attack. This may lead us in the direction of strengthened connections with these states and possibly normalization with the Saudis, who fear and deplore Iran. This is for another posting.
It is possible that mullahs will yet rue the day they attacked us. Of course, it is also possible that the situation will shift again in ways that we cannot predict now. But I will not go there.
~~~~~~~~~~
As promised above, the recommendations for donations prior to Pesach:
Israel Independence Fund (IIF)
The Fund, which works in many spheres, has now taken on a special project in cooperation with the command structure of the 9255 Division of the IDF’s Paratroop Brigade. The project involves providing support for needy families of IDF reservists who have been on call for at least 190 days. These are families left in difficult economic circumstances while the reservists are away serving the nation. In the course of this project, needy families will be identified and provided with cash cards for the SuperSol supermarket chain.
https://www.fundisrael.org/ (donate button is at top right)
__________
Koby Mandel Foundation
For over 20 years, this Foundation has lent assistance to those who have lost loved ones through an act of terror or other tragedy. It provides a variety of support groups and healing retreats, as well as a children’s camp and bereavement training for mental health professionals. Since October 7, the Foundation has been working with bereaved and severely traumatized survivors from the communities at the border with Gaza – an enormous and critically important undertaking.
https://www.kobymandell.org/donate
__________
ZAKA
This is a Search and Rescue humanitarian volunteer organization that provides a rapid response to mass casualty disasters. Since October 7, their volunteers have worked selflessly and with enormous dedication. Now they are seeking funds for safety equipment, medical supplies, and more.
https://give.zakaworld.org/campaign/israel-needs-stronger-zaka/
On behalf of all those who will benefit from your generous gifts, I thank you.
~~~~~~~~~~
Pesach begins on Monday night. It is unlikely that I will write again before next Wednesday. And so I end with wishes for all who will celebrate Pesach for a joyous and meaningful holiday.
It is traditional for me to include a version of Vehi She’amda before Pesach – a different version this year.
The words are from the Pesach Haggadah, the music was written by Yonatan Razel, who is at the piano.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qR_T2lCLODE
So very appropriate. One translation:
“That which stood for our ancestors applies to us as well.
“For it was not only one individual who stood up against us to destroy us.
“Rather, in every generation they rise up against us to destroy us.
“But the Holy One, Blessed Be He, redeems us from their hands.”
~~~~~~~~~~
© Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by independent journalist Arlene Kushner. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution.
