“Mo’adim L’Simcha” is the traditional greeting for the intermediate days of Pesach: May you have joy on these days.
There IS joy, much joy – as people now reflect on their seders and the coming together of family.
But the joy is intermixed with pain because of soldiers lost or injured in the fighting in Gaza and the hostages who remain in captivity, and because of the concern about what is still to come as we complete the fight in Gaza and confront Hezbollah in the north.
It is a struggle to balance everything in our hearts at one time – but we must.
Please! Make sure you go to the end of this posting for a magnificent musical video which is essentially a prayer that takes in the pain and the hope.
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I want to begin with the good news, particularly as I am writing during Hol Hamo’ed – the intermediate days.
By last Friday, information had been made public regarding our attack on Iran that was not available earlier. And so, I revise the picture I had provided earlier. That revision is positive:
The original impression was one of an attack by drones on Shekari Air Base right outside of Isfahan in the center of Iran. Iranian reports spoke of the need to respond to a UAV (drone) attack, making very light of it. The impression given was that it had been launched within Iran.
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The updated version of what took place is considerably more worrisome for Iran, which is making no official direct acknowledgement of Israeli involvement.
What happened is that the IDF launched the Rampage – a long-range supersonic air-to-ground precision strike missile designed by Elbit Systems – from outside of Iran (but not from Israel).
Its sophistication was such that it avoided detection and was able to take out the S-300 air defense system at the air base. An impressive feat. Satellite imagery confirmed the damage.
Israel did not damage the air base itself, which harbors Iranian fighter planes, nor the associated nuclear facility nearby at Natanz – both of which had been presumed protected by the S-300 system. Had we done so, the Iranians would have been compelled to respond. This was a warning of a most potent sort: Look what we are capable of doing.
The embarrassment and the sense of vulnerability experienced by those in charge in Iran were clearly considerable. I wrote previously about the Muslim shame/honor culture: Within this culture, the exposure of weakness is a serious matter indeed, leading to obfuscation and lying. And here we see a stunning instance of this behavior:
“New satellite images reveal how Iran covered up the extent of the damage caused to the aerial defense system at the Natanz nuclear complex (pictured)…by Israel’s retaliatory strike last week.”
“The Economist, citing imagery analyst Chris Biggers, reported that Israel appeared to have directly struck a 30n6e2 ‘Tombstone’ radar, designed to track incoming air and missile threats, allowing interceptor missiles to take them out.
“The rest of the aerial defense battery had been moved away, presumably in case Israel were to strike again.
“Images shared by Biggers…show that by the day after the attack, Iran had swapped out the Tombstone radar for a different 96l6e ‘Cheeseboard’ radar, placing it on the same spot. It also kept the launcher canisters, which fire interceptors, in an upright position…
“…the site is almost certainly not operational [as] the two radars are not interchangeable and the aerial defense system will not work with a damaged Tombstone.”
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/389002
From our perspective here in Israel, it is a comfort to know that Iran’s military is not as cutting-edge, as ferocious, as it had been made out to be. I have read reports put out now alluding to the fact that much of the Iranian military equipment is dated and aging. (A fair percentage of the missiles and drones launched against Israel failed before approaching Israel.)
I thought the Israeli action was brilliant. We retaliated for the missile and drone attack, sending a powerful message and diminishing the image of Iranian ferocity, without stimulating a reprisal attack.
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There are reports that Russia will be delivering cutting-edge Su-35 fighter planes to Iran very soon, shifting the situation in Iran’s favor.
This is not a certainty, however: Iran has been requesting these jets for two years now and Russia has not been in a hurry to deliver. The current reports regarding this are via Iranian and Arab media sources, with official confirmation neither by Russia nor Iran.
It occurs to me that Iran may have simply leaked this report as a counter intended to intimidate Israel. My not-unreasonable speculation.
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/bjqxsigwc
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I celebrate the fact that the IDF is moving along in its plans to take out the last Hamas battalions in Rafah in the south of Gaza, along the border with Egypt. However, although plans are being finalized, we are not quite there yet.
A full week ago, the IDF announced the return of two reserve brigades, the 2nd Reserve Brigade of the 146th Division and the 679th Reserve Brigade of the 210th Division, from the Lebanon border to Gaza, where they will be available for the invasion of Rafah. They have been receiving training.
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/r1perjib0
And yesterday, Wednesday, a senior IDF official said that the IDF has conducted all necessary preparations to take Rafah and can launch an operation the moment it gets government approval. The key is that final government approval. The fact that we have not seen this yet is a bit unsettling.
The IDF has made several plans for this operation in an attempt to satisfy American concerns. But no major operation in Rafah is going to satisfy the Biden administration, which wants to see Hamas taken out by “some other means.”
According to the current IDF plan, the city will be divided into defined areas and the operation will move forward in stages according to that division. At each stage, the IDF will inform the local population before advancing into a targeted area so that there will be time to evacuate. This plan prevents the need to evacuate everyone at once – there are some million plus civilians in Rafah. Some 250,000 have already independently relocated to housing north of Rafah, primarily in Khan Yunis and Nuseirat, both still in the southern portion of Gaza.
Israel ordered 40,000 tents some weeks ago. I am reading now that they are being set up by international aid organizations. Accompanying tent enclaves there would be food distribution and medical service facilities.
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According to some reports, evacuation from Rafah should begin in the next four to five weeks. But there is apparently a push by the US to move a great deal more slowly.
As we have seen, the IDF is on board for proceeding; within the War Cabinet, it is reportedly Defense Minister Gallant who is pushing the hardest for the operation to begin.
Apparently, Netanyahu may still be wavering, which is problematic, if true. We will know it is not true when he gives the go-ahead. It is no surprise that Minister Benny Gantz, the third voting party in War Cabinet, is reportedly not enthusiastic about moving ahead.
https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-798390
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Because of Egyptian concerns of a mass exodus of residents of Rafah into the Sinai, Egypt is involved in consultations with Israel as well. As the Egyptians are opposed to the operation, they are pushing for a hostage deal with a ceasefire. This is the subject for another posting.
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The movement into Rafah is important for several reasons.
The most obvious is because we must take out Hamas. After the October 7 massacre and their threat to do this again, their capacity to inflict evil upon Israel must be cut off.
But there is also a message to Iran in this regard: We will be eliminating the military effectiveness of an Iranian proxy and undercutting the Iranian plan to surround Israel on three sides with Islamist terror entities (Hamas to our west, the PLO to our east, and Hezbollah to our north)H.
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Biden had agreed not to block this operation if Israel either refrained from retaliating for the Iranian missile attack or did so in a way that did not generate an escalation.
https://www.jns.org/us-to-back-idf-rafah-op-in-exchange-for-dropping-major-strike-on-iran-report/
Now there are reports that he denies this, but I believe he did make this commitment. The report about this came from Egyptian officials, not Israelis. At the time he made this commitment, his priority was preventing Israel from a major attack on Iran that would cause a military escalation. Now that he is no longer worried about this, it’s easy to back off from his promise.
My trust in Biden’s word is non-existent.
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That said, I segue to what I consider the most disturbing situation to have emanated from the Biden administration recently:
Five days ago, Secretary of State Blinken was reported to be on the verge of applying sanctions on the Netzah Yehuda battalion because of human rights violations in Judea & Samaria (or the “occupied west bank,” as he would have it). This is a battalion for haredi (ultra-Orthodox) men.
The primary charge was that members of the battalion caused the death of an 80-year-old Palestinian American in 2022. He was stopped at a checkpoint somewhere in Judea/Samaria and refused to be checked. Subsequent to his refusal, he was handcuffed and gagged and left. He was found dead some hours later.
The IDF did an investigation of this incident; one soldier was dismissed and two were reprimanded. There had been negligence, but no violence, and so no criminal charges were brought.
Application of sanctions would mean that no American aid or training would be available to the battalion or any of its members.
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Prime Minister Netanyahu responded with rage, writing on X that the intention to impose the measures as the IDF fights Hamas is the “height of absurdity and a moral low” and that his government would “act by all means against these moves.” (emphasis added)
Indeed, it was exactly as Netanyahu described, and I, along with many others, felt infuriated. To say I was angry would not sufficiently describe my response.
The US is supposed to be our ally, and on alternate days Biden is fond of telling us how he has our back. But they would have cut us off at the knees while we are at war. For not only are we at war, we are enduring an incredible and hateful spate of international criticism in the course of fighting it. The application of sanctions against an Israeli battalion for human rights violations would have further fueled and legitimized this criticism.
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There are several other reasons as well why this was a thoroughly wrong-headed and highly politicized decision:
The US these days is fond of micromanaging what goes on here when, in point of fact, it is none of their damn business. The incident with the Arab was investigated by the IDF and handled.
What is more, if a soldier or a handful of soldiers in a unit is found to have behaved improperly, it is improper to sanction the entire unit.
Further exacerbating the fury was the fact while the US seeks to micromanage alleged human rights offenses by Israelis, they turn away when Palestinian Arabs regularly commit human rights atrocities. At this moment, the US is providing military training in Jordan for Palestinian Arabs who are slated to serve the “Palestinian State” in one security capacity or another.
There is documented evidence of members of PA security forces committing terror attacks. But have we heard the US declare it can no longer provide this training? Certainly not.
Think hard on this my friends.
There is a great deal more to say about this topic, but I will leave it for future postings. What I want to clarify here is that while I consider the Biden Administration – and progressives in government – to be totally untrustworthy with regard to responding to Israel, I know that there are many Americans in positions of responsibility who are our friends. I will speak out with full voice (as a tax-paying and voting American citizen) against a Democrat in the White House come 2025.
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The good news is that Blinken has reconsidered and will not be applying sanctions against the Battalion. This was announced yesterday.
I hope and trust that this was as the result of fierce pressure from a number of Israeli officials and that nothing has been held over our heads. The bottom line, however, is that damage has been done, for there are those who will remember Blinken’s charges even as he withdrew them.
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Let me take one moment to speak on behalf of the Netzah Yehuda battalion, because they have been maligned.
The IDF recently put out a statement that: Netzach Yehuda soldiers are currently fighting Hamas terrorists in the Gaza Strip “with courage and professionalism while upholding the values and spirit of the IDF and the principles of international law.”
“About a month ago, following the IDF’s satisfaction with the fighters and as the battalion was moved up to the front in the Gaza Envelope, the commander of the ground forces decided to turn the battalion into a maneuvering combat unit for the first time.
“In the last twelve months, the battalion eliminated more than 30 terrorists in about 450 operations beyond the enemy lines in the three sectors, destroyed 69 terrorist structures, including Hamas sites from which terrorists launched rockets at Israeli citizens, arrested more than a hundred wanted terrorists, and located 3 underground sites in the Gaza Strip.”
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Tomorrow night is Shabbat, and then Sunday night, the final holiday of Pesach begins.
I wish all observing a Shabbat Shalom and Chag Sameach. I will return to the “normal” routine of writing as possible.
Here I offer the beautiful song I referred to above. It touches on our pain and lifts us via faith.
Click on this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TGhRq2P36Qg
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© Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by independent journalist Arlene Kushner. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution.
