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The situation is so very dynamic that it would be foolish for me to focus on a great many details of our war with Iran. We might blink our eyes and find the situation had shifted.
We have been hitting Iran very hard, and our attack will now intensify. For early this morning (Thursday) the Iranians launched a direct attack on Soroka Hospital in Be’ersheva, the major medical center in southern Israel.
The damage was extensive; patients have been transferred to a number of other hospitals. At the same time there were hits in Tel Aviv, Ramat Gan and Holon. Over six have been seriously wounded as a result of this barrage and many more lightly wounded.
The rage within the government is considerable: deliberate targeting of civilians, hospitalized civilians at that, is a war crime of major dimensions.
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As result of this, I suspect the likelihood that we will take out Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran since 1989, may have increased.
His circle of some 15 – 20 advisors has already been severely diminished as we have take out one after another: From the Revolutionary Guards elite, the political echelon, clerics and nuclear and aerospace scientists. Taking out the nuclear scientists has great significance because without their know-how rebuilding what we destroy would be exceedingly difficult. Across the board I’m seeing this: the thought that the IDF devotes to attacks and what would have the greatest impact.
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The question of whether or not to eliminate Khamenei is being intensely debated with regard to possible consequences. Some believe that it would intensify the war.
Bibi has said this would end the war and a good case can be made for his position: certainly taking down Khamenei would weaken the regime of the Islamic Republic and it might well bring it down.
And then, there are those who believe the regime should be taken out, while others say we should focus simply on removing their nuclear capacity and their ballistic missiles.
https://www.jns.org/iran-needs-regime-change-but-that-cant-be-the-goal/
Myself, I would love to see that regime come down!! But that is perhaps a visceral position.
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The major question with regard to a possible regime change is whether there is resistance within the population that is sufficiently organized to carry it off. A discontented populace – and it is VERY discontented – cannot pull it off without leadership and some sort of organization or plan.
Reza Pahlavi, son of the last Shah of Iran, and the exiled crown prince, has been waiting for many years to claim his place as his father’s successor. Now he is saying this is the time for regime change and claims there are plans in place. But it is not at all clear that this would be what the people want. The Shah was light years better than the current regime, and friendly to Israel. But he ruled his people with a heavy and repressive hand and his son may very well not be the first choice of the people now.
Maryam Rajavi, president of the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), who lives in exile, told a press conference at the European Parliament that, “The only viable solution remains the overthrow of this regime by the people of Iran and the Iranian Resistance.” She maintains that her movement is the best option to lead the change.
“The issue of the day in Iran — and the war that has been waged over it — is the nuclear question,” she said. “Yet the issue of Iran in its entirety goes far beyond this regime’s nuclear program. At its core, the conflict is between the people of Iran and the Iranian Resistance on one side, and religious tyranny on the other.”
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Everyone, but everyone, I would imagine, is waiting to learn what Trump will do with regard to joining Israel in the war on Iran. He is being vague, and I suspect he enjoys this. But underlying it – for all his apparent posturing – I believe he is bent on making Iran nervous. See:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B5XjMC1QN3g
For all Trump’s stated preference for resolving conflicts peacefully – something he has demonstrated little success in actually achieving – he must surely understand that a meaningful deal with Iran is not possible. Surely he cannot believe, even if he has little understanding of the jihadi mentality, that Iran is about to agree to the “unconditional surrender” he is now demanding.
It made front page today that Iran says they are willing to negotiate with the US, but Israel must “cool it” first. There is only one rational response to this:
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Having said this, however, I must note that news is breaking of communication that Steve Witkoff had, or is having, direct phone communication with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.
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There have been multiple reports regarding a division within the Trump administration regarding involvement in the war. I have been unsettled by reports of Republican anti-Israel isolationists – most notably Tucker Carleson, former Fox News commentator – who have influence with Trump.
https://www.jns.org/why-does-tucker-carlson-want-to-appease-tehran/
But of late, it has become apparent that the influence of Carleson and his cronies is negligible at best. Trump has made dismissive comments that make this clear.
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Essentially, Trump has two options: To continue to assist Israel indirectly by supplying weaponry and intelligence or by actively joining the fight.
Considerable information has been released on US preparations to go to war. The Pentagon has supplied the president with attack options. This does not mean Trump has decided yet, but rather that the US military will be prepared to move forward if he does give the word.
I have encountered two basic positions from analysts regarding why Trump might join forces with Israel.
The first is because he likes a winner. And as Israel is very obviously doing enormous damage to the Iranian infrastructure, weaponry, military, etc., he might be prepared to ally himself with this effort. His major role, should he join, would be to finish the nuclear installation at Fordow, an essential factor in eliminating Iran’s nuclear capability.
At present, only the US possess the huge bunker busters – Massive Ordnance Penetrators — that would make this possible. I have read that Trump understands the importance of doing this but reportedly seeks assurance that the MOP would do the job.
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/syb27nrqll#autoplay
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The second reason is because Trump recognized that he could not control Israel. He might pressure Israel to hold off because he was trying to reach a deal, but if Bibi decided to attack he would anyway.
“US intelligence officials monitoring Israeli military preparations and political deliberations concluded that Netanyahu had moved past his historical pattern of yielding to American pressure.”
https://www.israelhayom.com/2025/06/18/how-israel-convinced-us-to-follow-its-lead/
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The implications here are huge. And so I want to end with an excellent op-ed by Avi Abelow on this subject:
“For decades, many around the world—including Jews and Israelis—have clung to a dangerous myth: that Israel cannot act alone. That we depend on American permission, American firepower, and American protection.
“This war with Iran has shattered that illusion—permanently.
“Some are troubled. They ask why the United States isn’t leading the charge against Iran’s nuclear program and why President Trump left Israel out of the deal with the Houthis. After all, Iran has long called America the ‘Great Satan,’ alongside Israel, which it call the ‘Little Satan.’ They interpret Trump’s restraint as abandonment.
“But those critics are missing the point—and the greatest gift of this war.
“Israel is not being abandoned. Israel is being empowered. (Emphasis in the original.)
“We are doing what no other nation dared: confronting and dismantling the Islamic Republic of Iran’s axis of evil and its nuclear threat. And we are doing it alone.
“That is not a failure of alliance. It is a triumph of sovereignty.
“It is a declaration to the world that the Jewish state is no one’s client. No one’s charity project. We are a free nation with the courage, clarity, and capability to defend not only ourselves, but the values the West no longer has the will to protect.
“This is not just a military operation—it is a reawakening of Jewish destiny. For the first time in modern history, Israel is not merely reacting to terror or defending its borders. We are leading. Morally. Strategically. Spiritually.
“This war may end the genocidal Islamic Iranian regime. But more than that, it signals the beginning of something greater: the strategic and spiritual rebirth of Jewish sovereignty…
“…Israel is no longer…the dependent child of Western powers. We are a sovereign nation fulfilling our biblical destiny—rising with moral clarity where others hesitate. (Emphasis added here and above.)
This is the greatest gift of this war.
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/410294
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I ask for prayers for Israel’s success in our war with Iran. Pray for the wisdom and courage of our leaders.
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©Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by independent journalist Arlene Kushner. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution.
