I will do my best here, my friends, to summarize the key events of the last 24 – 48 hours. But I caution that there is a good deal of ambiguity, with various interpretations afloat.
Before I begin this summary, I state the obvious: Under no circumstances are the rulers of Iran to be trusted, neither with regard to their words nor their actions. The mullahs, as long as they continue to rule, will do all in their ability to further their jihadist intentions – which constitute a religious obligation for them – of destroying Israel. Everything must be measured according to this understanding.
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On Sunday, Netanyahu said: “We are very close to completing the two objectives of the operation… When we achieve them, we will not continue beyond what is necessary, but we will not end too soon.”
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/410483
He was alluding to the removal of Iran’s ability to develop nuclear weapons and the existence of Iranian ballistic missiles and launchers that could be utilized to attack Israel.
As to the former, the goal has been achieved in good measure thanks to the attack by the US on key Iranian sites. There is disagreement as to whether Iran’s ability has been totally knocked out – Trump and company referred to “obliteration” – or set back for several years. Only on-site examination of the facilities at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan might provide an answer.
The Isfahan facility before being hit:
But what is clear is that Iran is no longer mere weeks from becoming a nuclear power. At a minimum they have been set back 2 – 5 years.
There are unconfirmed reports of Iran having smuggled enriched uranium out of Fordow before the US attack. My best understanding is that even if they did, the uranium would require further enrichment before it could be used militarily, and the conversion facilities are not available to them.
Additionally, Israel has taken other actions to stymie Iran’s sworn intention of rebuilding their facilities in order to further their goals. A good number of Iran’s scientists – many of those with the necessary know-how regarding weapons development and uranium enrichment – have been eliminated. The IDF also recently struck the site where the backup copy of Iran’s nuclear archive, containing extensive documentation of the regime’s knowledge and progress in developing nuclear weapons, was held.
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/410128
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As to the ballistic missiles, it was my impression that a good number of the missiles as well as a considerable percentage of the launchers had been taken out, but there was still work to be done. The broad impression is that there was another week or two of work to do.
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Removal of the regime in Iran had not been set as one of Israel’s goals in the war. Achieving this is no simple matter, even with speculation that assassinating Khamenei might bring down the regime. There are several over-riding concerns. The first is the fact that in the end this must be accomplished from inside of Iran and it’s not clear that there is sufficient organization within the country to achieve this. The major movements for removal of the government are in exile – in the UK and US.
The second is the concern that if the regime were to fall, there is no guarantee that a moderate, pro-West regime would take its place.
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What Israel has done in recent days, however, is to attack facets of the regime that might contribute to its downfall, in particular command centers and assets belonging to the IRGC and internal security forces. The headquarters of Basij, one of the IRGC’s central armed bases of power, responsible for enforcing Islamic law, was hit; the Iranian regime’s Internal Security Headquarters was destroyed.
See: https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/410538
Yesterday, Israel blew the doors off Evin prison, the notorious prison that holds political dissidents who are tortured and sometime hung.
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And then, came a rapid sequence of events.
In spite of Trump’s threats to Iran to refrain from retaliating for the US attack on its nuclear installations, Iran attacked the Al Udeid Air Base, a major US base in Qatar. Iran, however, gave advance notice to Qatar, and through diplomatic channels, to the US. There were no casualties and Trump thanked Iran. This was already a different Trump from the one we’d seen for several days past. What the president then announced was that he didn’t want any more war, he wanted a deal. Ah…
Trump subsequently announced a ceasefire – the first stage of which would take effect at 7 a.m. this morning. (There was something about Iran refraining from attack for the first 12 hours and then Israel joining the ceasefire – but I confess it made very little sense to me.) What became clear is that Trump leaned on Israel for this, while Qatar leaned on Iran.
The first announcement came from Trump, and it was only thereafter that Netanyahu confirmed it.
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In the hours prior to 7 a.m., there was a good deal of activity from both sides. But the critical difference is that Israel was seeking to take down military installations (dozens were hit) while Iran aimed directly for civilian population. Starting at about 5 a.m., Israelis were exhausted by one warning after another regarding incoming missiles and the need to prepare to take shelter.
The most horrific hit was in Be’ersheva, which has taken quite a beating (starting with the damage to Soroka hospital).
A direct hit on an apartment building resulted in the death of at least four.
But at 7 a.m., it became quiet. For 3-1/2 hours, at any rate. And then, Iran launched two missiles at Israel. Israel was determined to respond. (According to Times of Israel now, several regime targets were to be hit.)
Trump, however, was determined to stop the Israeli attack. He wanted Israel to turn their planes around.
This is how Times of Israel described Trump’s response: “In a foul-mouthed tirade, Trump savages Israel.” The verbal attack, which included profanity, was jarring, to say the least. What happened to Trump, Israel’s best friend? This is simply how he behaves.
Israel refused to refrain from attacking Iran, which I believe is important. However, the response was modified: a radar installation was hit.
Now, as I write, it is more than 12 hours after the first temporary declaration of the ceasefire, and all is quiet. Israel is returning to normal.
There have been some 30 civilians killed in this war with Iran and others wounded, while several thousand are left homeless because Iran destroyed civilian housing. The wounded and the homeless must be attended to.
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What I see is that Trump, who, to his credit, rose above the demands of isolationists in his party when he hit Iran, decided that he had done enough and now seeks to mollify that segment of his party by curtailing further military effort in Iran – either by the US or Israel. He will have need of those isolationists in a variety of different political situations going forward.
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Israel’s military prowess in accomplishing all that we did over 12 days of fighting is being lauded in many quarters, as it absolutely should be: We are astounding.
The question that lingers is whether we did enough and whether we should have fought for another week or two. The immediate threat is largely removed – although there is an issue with some ballistic missiles and launchers that remain.
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All precautionary restrictions have been lifted here with the assumption that we can return to fighting if the situation requires it.
Within the government and the military there is a great need to focus once again on Hamas in Gaza. This is something that cannot be left unfinished!! And the simple truth is that we will rely on replenishment of weaponry by the US in order to complete the job.
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Not for a moment would I deny that there is a sense of relief here in Israel. No staying close to home, no getting up repeatedly during the night to go to shelters. We are all exhausted – from tension as well as lack of sleep – and will take days to fully revert to our normal selves.
But we are grateful – so very grateful – for all that our government has been able to accomplish. We understand the import.
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I ask for prayers for all of Am Yisrael.
Pray for the wisdom and courage of our leaders.
Pray for the safety of our soldiers as they fight.
Pray for the recovery of all hostages.
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©Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by independent journalist Arlene Kushner. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution.
