This is all so very wearisome. And confusing. And ultimately significant.
It seems that technically speaking Israel is still observing a “ceasefire” in Lebanon.
This truly makes less than no sense. Our purported ceasefire was with the Lebanese government and not with Hezbollah. But it is Hezbollah that is attacking. What is more, the intensity of those attacks has increased considerably in recent days.
It is not difficult to see why there has been an escalation in the attacks. It is not remotely coincidental. The situation is unfolding precisely as we might have guessed it would:
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, speaker of Iran’s parliament, on Monday (yesterday) accused the United States of “noncompliance” with the ceasefire. That is, presumably, the ceasefire between Israel and the Lebanese government, which had been announced by Trump, and with which Israel had agreed to comply. What he ignored was the fact that Israeli compliance was qualified: there would be an IDF response to any violations perpetrated by Hezbollah.
Ghalibaf’s X post cited “the naval blockade and escalation of war crimes in Lebanon by the genocidal Zionist regime” as “clear evidence” of Washington’s violations. (Emphasis added)
“Every choice has a price, and the bill comes due. It will all fall into place,”
https://x.com/Tasnimnews_EN/status/2061399263616041018
Ghalibaf was making the US responsible for Israeli actions that were taken against growing Hezbollah violence. This is a way to squeeze the US.
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Israel, in fact, was responding to an unacceptable situation. There were drone attacks on our soldiers in south Lebanon, resulting in a number of deaths. Day followed day in which we saw in the news a picture of yet another beautiful young soldier – perhaps newly married, perhaps planning a marriage very soon – taken down by Hezbollah. Each death pierced the heart. And this was in addition to the drone and rocket attacks inside of Israel’s north. Recent days saw those attacks reaching an expanded area – with hits near Nahariya at the beach, and in the upper and western Galil, in S’fat, Kiryat Shmona and Karmiel.
Israel thus intensified action against Hezbollah, moving further into Lebanon. The IDF moved past the yellow line south of the Litani River and then past the river itself.
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On Friday, Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir said: “We will continue striking the enemy wherever we can and we will expand upon our achievements.”
“Our objective is clear—to intensify the damage to Hezbollah, push the terror threat away from our civilians, and strengthen the defense of the northern communities. This is the central goal guiding us in every action and every decision.”
https://www.jns.org/news/israel-news/netanyahu-idf-operating-beyond-litani-river-in-southern-lebanon
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On Sunday, Prime Minister Netanyahu’s office announced that the IDF had taken the remains of the 12th century Crusader Fortress known as Beaufort Castle and the ridge upon which is stands.
“Our heroic soldiers captured the Beaufort Castle in Lebanon and proudly raised the flag of the State of Israel,” said PMO spokeswoman Shosh Bedrosian in a video statement.
The move “will allow us to extend and deepen our hold on locations that were under Hezbollah’s control,” Bedrosian continued. “Hezbollah has nowhere to hide now,” she declared.
The PLO, which had maintained a presence in Lebanon for years, took the castle in 1972. It was seized by the IDF in 1982, in the early days of the first Lebanon War, and held until then-PM Ehud Barak withdrew all IDF forces precipitously from Lebanon in 2000.
And so this was seen as a victorious return by the IDF. The point has been made, however, that withdrawal from that area in 2000 did not serve Israel well, and that control here must be maintained for the sake of Israeli security.
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As Hezbollah attacks continued unabated, Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yisrael Katz then announced that the IDF would begin attacks on the upscale Dahiyeh neighborhood of Beirut, an Hezbollah stronghold that Israel has hit in the past. “There will not be a situation in which Hezbollah attacks our cities and our citizens while its terror headquarters in Beirut, in Dahiyeh, remain off-limits,” said Netanyahu.
It was this sort of IDF action – and anticipated action – to which Ghalibaf responded on Monday.
Trump’s focus has been on reaching a deal of sorts with Iran. On Monday, he had announced that indirect talks with Iran were moving at a good pace. But wait! Iran announced that it had suspended negotiations with the US because of Israeli actions and threatened actions in Lebanon. Apparently Iran did not notify the US of its change in position and Trump learned of this only after the fact. But he was quick to provide assurance that this did not mean he would bomb Iran again.
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/427970
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Trump, still set on moving negotiations with Iran forward, sought to intervene in the growing escalations between Hezbollah and Israel. He put out an announcement that:
“I had a very productive call with Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu, of Israel, and there will be no Troops going to Beirut, and any Troops that are on their way, have already been turned back. Likewise, through highly placed Representatives, I had a very good call with Hezbollah, and they agreed that all shooting will stop – That Israel will not attack them, and they will not attack Israel. “
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/427968
But this did not go over well in Israel. Said Netanyahu: “I spoke this evening with President Trump and told him that if Hezbollah does not cease attacking our cities and civilians, Israel will strike terrorist targets in Beirut. This position remains unchanged. At the same time, the IDF will continue operating in southern Lebanon as planned.”
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Reported Axios, however, what Trump referred to as “a very productive call with Prime Minister Netanyahu,” had in fact “deteriorated into a volatile, profanity-laced confrontation on Monday, according to accounts provided to Axios by two American officials and an additional briefed source.”
Trump had exploded because of Iranian threats to walk away from negotiations. Behind the scenes, American officials in the know painted a picture of Israeli capitulation, brought about as Trump completely “steamrolled” the Prime Minister.
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/427975
This report has not played well, neither with the right in Israel nor with many in the opposition.
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Subsequent to this exchange, Trump once again announced a “ceasefire” – a “new one” brokered by him – between Israel and the government of Lebanon. This announcement came from the president, not from Netanyahu and certainly not from the Lebanese. A new round of negotiations, scheduled to last two days, began in Washington today. There is still no clarity as to how agreements between the governments of Israel and Lebanon would serve to control Hezbollah aggression.
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Today, at a Defense Exports Conference, Defense Minister Yisrael Katz declared, without qualification, that “If Israeli communities continue to be attacked, we will evacuate and attack the Shiite Dahiyeh suburb in Beirut, which is Hezbollah’s stronghold.” Apparently a significant portion of the population of Dahiyeh has already fled in anticipation of an attack.
Note well:
“The Defense Minister made clear that there is no ceasefire in Lebanon and that the fighting is continuing at full force. According to him, the short-term goal is the total demilitarization of the entire area between the area currently held by the IDF and the Litani River, while the long-term goal continues to be the total disarmament of Hezbollah.”
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/428005
A firm rejection of the picture Trump has sought to paint. However Trump may have “steamrolled” Netanyahu on the phone, the Israeli position has not in fact shifted.
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Note this as well, please: Some three hours after Trump had announced that he had spoken with “representatives” of Hezbollah’s leaders, who, they reported had agreed to stop firing on Israel and its troops, attacks resumed. Rockets and drones were launched Monday night.
This is fairly “normative” behavior for a terror group. We now must monitor what takes place going forward.
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The most significant “take-away” from this series of incidents in my opinion is the extreme eagerness demonstrated by Trump to secure a negotiated settlement with Iran. Both sides have now toughened their stipulations for future talks, making any final arrangement yet more unlikely – but apparently there will be further talks, although I do not have details.
The only way there can be an agreement is if Trump caves in some substantial ways, which is what makes this all so unsettling. For it certainly appears that the president is willing to turn a blind eye to Israel’s security needs if he can achieve an agreement that sits well in America and that he can claim as a “victory.”
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I certainly have no inside information on the contents of whatever proposal Trump plans to submit for negotiations, but there is every indication that it does not contain a stipulation about Iran no longer supporting its terrorists proxies – Hezbollah first among them. The president’s position with regard to Israel’s defensive attacks on Hezbollah makes this clear.
There has been every indication that his over-riding concerns are opening the Strait of Hormuz and preventing Iran from developing nuclear weaponry.
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One last observation at this point, undoubtedly with much more to follow. There are statements being made by our officials that suggest that Beirut will be attacked only if our cities continue to be attacked by Hezbollah. This suggests a “quiet for quiet” policy, which is what the Israeli government endorsed for many years prior to October 7, notably with regard to Hamas. But, as we have learned, it is not a policy that is sufficient to guarantee Israeli security. While our Islamist enemy projects a policy of “quiet,” it can and will be preparing for the next attack. Katz did enunciate this position elsewhere: “the long-term goal continues to be the total disarmament of Hezbollah.”
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Here I want to switch gears to an entirely different subject. Yonatan Razel, the superb musician who projects a profoundly Jewish spirit, has had a stroke. He is in the hospital, awake, and receiving treatment. His family has asked for prayers for his full recovery: Yonatan Adi ben Chaya Rachel.
And I close with a video of Yonatan at the piano with Shulem Lemmer singing “One More Dance.” It was released by Yonatan and Shulem two years after October 7, as a response to the horror of that day (October 7 was Simchat Torah, when there is dancing with the Torah), but, oh, how it speaks to us now!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Yl1NoOE994
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I ask, as I always do, that you please pray.
©Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by independent journalist Arlene Kushner. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution.
