I had hesitated with regard to writing about the imminent attack on Israel by Iran and Hezbollah, because the situation remains so vague. I am tired of saying that “As I write, nothing has happened yet. Reports vary significantly as to what will happen and when.”
However…
There is a broad consensus that there will be some sort of attack, similar to what we endured in April, with a barrage of drones and rockets sent in our direction. Below we see one of a handful of rockets that made it into Israel airspace and was taken down during that attack; IDF Spokesman Daniel Hagari is standing next to it.
This time, it is anticipated that the attack will be stronger and may continue for a number of days.
Maybe. At this point it is conjecture as much as fact.
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An attack from Iran, if it does come, will be motivated in good part by Iran’s embarrassment at not having been able to protect an “honored” guest (Hamas leader amHHaniyeh) who was staying in the capital. Islam is an honor-shame culture that puts considerable emphasis on the responsibility to protect guests.
Add to this the likelihood that Iranian security personnel turned on the regime and cooperated in taking out Haniyeh: it is speculated that such persons planted the bombs that were detonated according to arrangements by the Mossad. The report is that bombs were hidden in the three different rooms where Haniyeh was most likely to stay. Not only is this embarrassing, this scenario also generates enormous insecurity at the top.
While Iran is still saying that Haniyeh was killed by a rocket shot from a plane outside of Iranian airspace, it seems likely that the story about bombs planted in the official guest facility where Haniyeh stayed on his visits is the accurate version.
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In April, very few projectiles reached Israeli airspace because our own forces were assisted by a coalition of forces from other countries – primarily the US and the UK, but also France and some Arab countries such as Jordan and some Gulf states.
It must be noted that to a considerable degree the Arab states acted not to protect Israel but to safeguard their own national airspace. In the instance of Jordan, and perhaps others, Israeli or US aircraft may have been permitted into their airspace.
At any rate, the Biden administration has been working diligently to reformulate this coalition. It is not clear if commitments on this are finalized, or which nations will be joining. Egypt has announced that while it had cooperated last time, it will not be part of a coalition now. Our relationship with Egypt has deteriorated over recent years.
I would say that to a very large degree the willingness to help stop an attack on Israel now is motivated by concern about escalation to a full war if Israel were to be hit hard.
Whatever the case, I am grateful, as are all Israelis, that we will not have to fight this alone.
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Yesterday, (Monday) Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant and IDF Chief of the General Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi met with Gen. Michael Erik Kurilla, Commander, U.S. Central Command at Ministry of Defense headquarters in Tel Aviv.
They discussed defense coordination, intelligence sharing and ways to expand the coalition.
https://www.gov.il/en/pages/edmcentcom
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Gallant had praise for Secretary of Defense Austin, with whom he is in regular communication.
“Austin is ordering the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East to replace the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group, which is in the Gulf of Oman but scheduled to come home later this summer. That decision suggests the Pentagon has decided to keep a carrier consistently in the region as a deterrent against Iran at least until next year…
“…Austin has also ordered additional ballistic missile defense-capable cruisers and destroyers to the European and Middle East regions and is taking steps to send more land-based ballistic missile defense weapons there.”
The Biden administration has lifted its restrictions on supplying Israel with the MK-83 half-ton (1000 lb.) bombs.
Yet there is more that Biden could be doing, and this is particularly with regard to release of larger bombs (one ton and more). I will be returning to this issue.
House Speaker Mike Johnson has now made his concerns very clear:
“President Biden must immediately release all previously withheld and delayed weapons to Israel — so it can defend its people and deter Iran — and make clear that there will be decisive economic, military, and international ramifications should Iran engage in or support any attacks.”
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/394201
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The IDF remains on highest alert. During a military briefing yesterday (Monday), Defense Minister Gallant told assembled Air Force officers, “Our enemies are carefully considering their every move because of the capabilities you have demonstrated over the past year. Nevertheless, we must be prepared for anything – including a swift transition to offense.” (Emphasis added)
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/394141
Note the comments about transition to offense. We have made it clear that while we are not seeking a wider war, we are prepared to move in that direction if the situation merits it. Should we transition, it would have to be very quickly.
“Israel would consider launching a preemptive strike to deter Iran if it uncovered airtight evidence that Tehran was preparing to mount an attack, Hebrew media reported after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convened Israel’s security chiefs for a meeting on Sunday evening.”
Brig Gen. (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser, speaking on a JCPA briefing makes the point that Iran has to be mindful of the fact that going into this, Israel has already planned what our counter-response to a heavy Iranian attack would be.
There is absolutely no question about the fact that we have re-established deterrence that was lost on October 7. The fact that we are being taken seriously in Iran is one of the factors that gives them pause as to how to respond to Haniyeh’s death.
While the US is being highly supportive in helping to provide a defensive for Israel, should there be a major Iranian attack, it should be understood that the US is in no way committed to assist in an offensive against Iran (more’s the pity). Gen. Kuperwasser believes Israel can go it alone if necessary.
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Many international airlines have cancelled flights to Israel, but El Al is flying. All El Al passenger planes, the safest in the world, are equipped with state-of-the-art anti-missile technology that is updated regularly.
https://community.infiniteflight.com/t/the-worlds-most-secure-airline-el-al/906817
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So, we wait, amidst a barrage of speculative reports about when we will be attacked: Monday (which has passed), today, Tisha B’av, which is next Monday night, Tuesday. Who knows?
The waiting, the not-knowing, is what is most difficult for the people of Israel. We have prepared and stockpiled supplies but go about our business normally.
I could not be prouder of the Israeli people. I have not spoken to a single person who regrets what we did. The attitude is that it was a good move – taking out a major Hamas terrorist who was one of the organizers of October 7 – and that we will cope with the consequences. Polls indicate that a substantial percentage of the Israeli population has this attitude.
This does not mean the situation is not stressful. It is, it has to be.
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While Iran has not attacked yet, it has announced that it has decided it will. And yet, I must note that the Biden administration is trying to convince Iran to hold back. (I wonder what parameters are discussed in that respect.) In line with this are calls for Iranian restraint from the EU – which seeks “maximum restraint” – and some Arab countries. And just today Russian President, Vladimir Putin, asked the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei for a restrained response – notably with regard to civilian casualties.
Additionally, there is pressure inside of Lebanon for Hezbollah to refrain from attacking Israel in any significant way now. Escalation to a war between Israel and Hezbollah would lead to wholesale destruction in Lebanon.
Hezbollah today launched drones near the northern city of Nahariya, injuring seven, one critically. But, in truth, sad to say, this represents something of the norm of recent months, not a major escalation.
All of this adds to the sense of uncertainty as to what may yet happen, or not.
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I will leave the discussion of this headache here, and turn to another, very serious headache:
As my readers undoubtedly know, Kamala Harris has now officially been designated Democratic nominee for president.
I consider this an alarming turn of events – dangerous for the US, for Israel, and for the Western world.
While I am Israeli, I am also an American citizen – a tax paying, voting American citizen And as such I consider it my responsibility to speak out against Kamala. You will see a “new” Kamala advanced, as prior very leftist, progressive statements of hers are scrubbed from the Internet. But it is important to remember who she really is.
Her ticket – with the leftist Tim Walz, governor of Minnesota, whom she has selected to run as her vice president – is the most progressive, leftist ticket ever seen in American politics. She is dangerous.
We can start here with a recorded video of a statement she made in 2017 about the necessity of staying “woke.” This is just the very beginning.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hc_TPptJAQA
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I hope and trust that many of you will share the information I will be putting out. Some people are so enamored of her – the very first Black/Asian woman candidate for president – that they will hear nothing. But there are many on the edge – many uneasy with her garbled statements, her nonsense laughter, her inability to seriously tackle issues – who might yet be convinced that a vote for Kamala is not in the best interests of America.
Much more will follow.
Keep praying to Heaven for Israel.
Pray for the safety of all Israel.
Pray for the strength and wisdom of our leaders, for the safety of our soldiers, and for the rescue of our hostages.
Pray in a spirit of hope.
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©Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by independent journalist Arlene Kushner. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution.
