We have turned the calendar page to a new year. We must pray that it will be a better year than the one we have just left. This will take a great deal of devoted work on the part of a great many people.
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Please read to the end. I hope to include some news about the beautiful people of Israel in every post. This provides an important perspective – increasing pride and buoying our collective morale. We must never forget who we are, even if the world refuses to know.
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In recent days, the fog surrounding Israel’s war with Hamas has been particularly heavy. So much so that I was finding it difficult to report coherently on what was taking place.
During the second week of December there were reports, citing three Israeli official, that there had been messages from Biden himself and members of his administration signaling that Israel had until the end of 2023 to end the war in Hamas.
Clearly, the US cannot tell Israel when to stop fighting, but the messages that were reportedly being delivered – and their apparent tone – were unsettling.
On December 24, Netanyahu declared in a message to the nation: “Citizens of Israel, we are intensifying the war in the Gaza Strip. We will continue to fight until absolute victory over Hamas.”
This statement was reassuring. But then, once more, there were reports of the IDF slowing down.
Two days after Netanyahu’s message about intensifying the war, reports surfaced regarding the fact that the US had denied Israel’s request for Boeing AH-64 Apache Attack Helicopters, although the decision apparently was not final. (Now there are denials by the US that the request had been refused, although the issue is still not finally resolved.)
The reported denial of Israel’s request rang bells: The concern is that US reluctance to deliver armaments or equipment we need might be a significant factor that plays into Israeli decisions on how intensively to fight the war. That is, the US at some level controls the fighting.
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Last Thursday, Middle East analyst Yoni Ben Menachem provided a different perspective. He wrote (emphasis added):
“The current situation in the Gaza Strip presents a complex challenge for the IDF as Hamas shifts its tactics towards guerrilla warfare. The IDF is responding by adapting its strategies…
“Hamas’s new fighting style involves small squads operating from a network of tunnels, launching surprise attacks, using anti-tank missiles, RPGs, explosives, and snipers…
“This targeted approach [by Israel] is seen as a strategic achievement that could impact the course of the war, boost IDF morale, and enhance international legitimacy for the operation.
https://arabexpert.co.il/en/2023/12/28/10269/
This is the bit of clarity I refer to above.
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Obviously, we do not have full clarity, or anything approaching it. There is no way that the IDF can or should keep laypersons informed on details of its approach to fighting. What is more, the entire situation remains incredibly complex. But if shifts in fighting style are being contemplated at least in part in response to the behavior of the enemy and not simply the demands of the US, this is reassuring.
Ben Menachem refers to some of the goals of the fighting: locating and eliminating the leadership, starting with Yahya Sinwar, and occupying the Rafah area and “Philadelphia Corridor” adjacent to the Sinai. (It is here that Hamas smuggled in its weapons.)
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Netanyahu’s claim of aiming for “complete victory” requires clarification. It is probably more realistic to speak about reaching military goals, which must be defined. The estimates of the length of time required to achieve these goals vary enormously. But it becomes increasingly clear that the war is not going to be over some time soon, although the pace will be modified – as I indicate above.
One of the guideposts to watch is news about reservists being released. This is a signal that there are areas, notably in parts of northern Gaza, where the job is done. Reports that provide a small but very welcome sense of normalcy filter in: my grandson’s teacher has returned to the classroom, someone else says that a co-worker who was in Gaza is back in the office, etc. etc. Apparently, Division 252 has already been released and two brigades will be later this week.
Reservists are being let go in some cases to allow them additional training, and to give them time to refresh. They will be called back when and if they are needed. (Freeing them from duty for a period of time will also relieve a part of the burden on the economy.)
Another sign of our achievement level in the war is the discussion of when people in the Gaza envelope in the south, who fled the rockets, will be able to return to their homes. Right now, the residents of Sderot, which, as the community closest to Gaza, is less than a mile (approx. 1.5 km) away, are being told perhaps they can return in a month. Communities that are a bit further away (2.5 to 4 km) are going to be permitted to return sooner. But let it be clear: the people in the south do not want to return until it is truly safe; they are weary of the years of enduring rocket attacks and do not intend to settle for just one now and then.
Certainly, the rate of launching of rockets has decreased enormously. This is because many of the areas from which they did the launching are now under IDF control. As well, many rockets have been seized. This does not mean that we have eliminated their ability to launch rockets.
This was obvious on New Year’s Eve, when there was a substantial barrage of 20 rockets designed to be particularly irritating. They were launched at Tel Aviv and central Israel.
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/382856
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We are not going to get every member of Hamas. This is an impossibility in part because they meld in with the civilian population and cannot be identified. Then, of course, there is the fact that a great many civilians are not officially members of Hamas but sympathize and cooperate with the terror group.
A primary goal of the IDF is to eliminate Hamas areas of military control: There may be individual Hamas members in hiding, but by the end of our operation it is critically important that there be no military command centers still under Hamas control. No places where commanders can meet and plan in secret; where sophisticated communication equipment is operating, so that directions can be sent to “the troops”; where computers and other hi-tech equipment are being utilized and weapons can be stored.
Time and again, there is an announcement that the IDF has located and destroyed a command center, and then there is another such announcement, and another, and another. And the IDF is still searching for more.
What becomes apparent – and what it is important that everyone understand – is that Hamas has operated as a huge and relentless war machine. Their raison d’être was destroying Israel, and they focused on building the military capacity to do battle successfully. They were patient – it was taking time, and they were determined.
The tunnels are a major part of this effort, of course. There are over 500 km (more than 300 miles) of tunnels with thousands of shafts – some opening into private “civilian” homes, mosques and hospitals – and a whole network of branches of those tunnels.
All of this boggles my mind on a regular basis, and I suspect the minds of many of my readers, as well.
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Every time terrorists are eliminated from a building that may contain data of importance, the IDF goes in and gathers up computers and files and brings them to intelligence for examination. Only then is the building blown up. The amount of material that is being reviewed by specialists is staggering.
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It is my guess that this project of taking out Hamas far exceeds what had been anticipated, and so the operation to clean up the Hamas war machine will take longer than had been expected. IDF brass is anticipating somewhere between three and nine more months, and I’ve read reports of perhaps a year or more (at a less intense level).
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Right now, the most intense fighting is in Khan Yunis area in the south, with focus on a small area where the Hamas leaders may be hiding. Getting Yahya Sinwar is exceedingly important. Egypt has proposed that we allow Sinwar and other leaders to simply leave the area, in return for a cessation of hostilities. That is a very bad idea.
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This is from the Sunday night briefing of IDF Spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, last night:
“During the fighting in Gaza, the IDF continues to operate in a combined manner from the air, land, and sea. Dozens of aircraft are in the skies of Gaza at any given moment. The forces on the ground fight with a powerful aerial cover above them, which is striking, assisting, or rescuing. The communication channels, which have been operating 24 hours a day for the past eighty-seven days, show unprecedented cooperation on the battlefield. There has never been such cooperation in any war. This is the strength of the IDF, the strength of Israeli society, and its reservists – it’s a national mission.
“There is no case where a ground force did not receive fire support from the air when needed or aerial rescue under fire. The lives of dozens of wounded were saved thanks to medical treatment and aerial rescue.” (Emphasis added)
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/382853
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My dear friends, I leave the discussion on the Gaza war at this point, obviously with more to come.
There are a great many other subjects to visit in coming posts:
[] Reports of new negotiations on the hostages.
[] Proposals on what to do with the civilians of Gaza after the war.
[] The third front in Judea & Samaria and the libelous charge of “settler violence.”
[] The conflict with Hezbollah, which remains hot but skirts under the line of full war. Throughout this time, the Biden administration has leaned on Israel not to “escalate” in the north. The situation cannot remain as it is – we have tens of thousands of residents in the north who have fled their homes to avoid rocket attacks.
The day after the October 7 massacre, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin ordered the Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group to the Eastern Mediterranean “As part of our effort to deter hostile actions against Israel or any efforts toward widening this war following Hamas’s attack on Israel.” The USS Gerald R. Ford is the US Navy’s newest and largest aircraft carrier. The strike group includes one cruiser and four destroyers.
Implications must be considered:
[] We now regrettably face the intrusion of a high voltage political issue:
“The Israeli Supreme Court this evening (Monday) published its ruling striking down the ‘Reasonableness Standard Law,’ the amendment to ‘Basic Law: The Judiciary’ which limited the court’s ability to apply the subjective ‘Reasonableness Standard’ to strike down Knesset-passed laws or government decisions.
“The move marks a historic shift in the balance of power in Israel, as it is the first time the Supreme Court has ever struck down part of a Basic Law, laws which have quasi-constitutional status in Israel and were considered the source of the court’s judicial review authority…
“An unprecedented full panel of all 15 Supreme Court Justices heard the petitions against the Reasonableness Standard law, the only major element of the government’s previously planned judicial reforms which was brought to a vote and successfully passed last year.
“The court’s decision to publish the decision now has been heavily criticized for risking reopening rifts within the country while Israel remains at war with the Hamas terrorist organization in Gaza…The vote was 8-7, a majority of one, leading to further criticism that this unprecedented move should not have been passed without greater consensus among the judges. However, outgoing Chief Justice Esther Hayut wished the law to be struck down under her watch and had only until the end of next week to sign court decisions.” (Emphasis added)
I had hoped we had heard the last from Hayut and say without reservation that I think she is despicable.
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/382899
The Kohelet Policy Forum put out a statement:
“In what may be remembered as one of the most unfortunate actions in the Court’s history, the Supreme Court has rushed a divisive decision, in the midst of a war – simply for the benefit of two retired Supreme Court Justices who wish to leave their personal stamps on Israeli jurisprudence.”
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/382906
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Today’s item for the Beautiful People of Israel:
A boy in Netanya who was due to be bar mitzvah very soon, was disappointed when he learned that his beloved rabbi, with whom he had studied, had been called up for reserve duty and would not be at the bar mitzvah.
Rabbi Hall, however, did not give up. He secured special permission from his commander and rode a long distance to be at the (weekday) bar mitzvah. He arrived at the last moment, dusty, dressed in uniform and carrying his rifle (as all soldiers must at all times), and brought the boy to the Torah.
There was not a dry eye in the congregation.
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Keep praying to Heaven for Israel, my friends. Pray for the strength and wisdom of our leaders, for the safety of our boys, and for the rescue of our hostages. Pray with a heart filled with hope.
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© Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by independent journalist Arlene Kushner. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution.
