An ideological terror organization fiercely committed to the destruction of Israel, Hamas is exceedingly devious and slippery. It values “martyrdom” for the sake of its goals and places great value on honor.
Will Hamas at this point release all hostages and lay down its arms?
I, along with a legion of others, would have declared this impossible. I still remain highly dubious, regardless of the current hoopla. There does appear to be a possible opening. But with it a larger measure of great unease.
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President Trump, of course, is at the heart of this current push for “peace” in Gaza. With all of the good he has done and all the ways in which he has supported Israel, his goals do not necessarily comport with Israel’s goals. Nor should we expect that they necessarily would. He is hoping to be celebrated internationally as a “peacemaker,” but in this situation genuine peace may not be a realistic goal and the “peace” that is fashioned might pose a threat to Israel.
Trump, as anyone who follows his remarks knows, is prone to hyperbole. He embellishes and glorifies his role. And so, when he announced his 20-point plan, which follows below, he referred to it as “potentially one of the great days ever in civilization.” There is no way to take this seriously. In fact, there is no way to comprehend how he could have said it.
What was particularly disturbing was Trump’s recent statement when, in the course of a speech, he tallied all the wars he has settled. With regard to the Middle East, he recounted this: “I said”—he did not identify to whom—“’How long have you been fighting?’ ‘Three thousand years, sir.’ That’s a long time. But we got it, I think, settled.”
This appeared first in the Atlantic – https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2025/09/trump-hegseth-speech-incoherent/684421/ – but it was cited in numerous other places as well. It lends the fallacious impression that Palestinian Arabs have been around, fighting with the Jews for 3,000 years. This is damaging. There were no Palestinian Arabs that long ago. There have been no Palestinian Arabs at all until quite recently in historic terms. Arab terror attacks on Jews here began perhaps in the 1920s or 1930s, before the founding of the State. We have fought several wars with Arabs, beginning in 1948, but they were with Arab states. Our battle with the Islamist Hamas is recent, with intermittent fighting going back perhaps 20 years.
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On September 29, Trump released his 20-point plan for peace.
The full plan: https://www.jns.org/full-text-trumps-comprehensive-plan-to-end-the-gaza-conflict/
I read it carefully and immediately saw that parts of it were unrealistic and troublesome.
Notably, there is #6: “Once all hostages are returned, Hamas members who commit to peaceful co-existence and to decommission their weapons will be given amnesty…” [To decommission their weapons is to take them out of use and destroy them or render them inoperable.]
This refers to the personal weapons of members of Hamas but does not account for – cannot account for – any caches of weapons which may very likely be hidden in the many kilometers of tunnels still standing. It is very doubtful that Hamas would truly be disarmed.
But worse: the notion that Hamas members might be relied upon to “commit to peaceful co-existence” is ludicrous. How do we trust the word of members of a Jihadist group ideologically committed to the destruction of Israel? According to their own religious ethic they are permitted to lie and dissemble for the sake of the “cause.” How can we put our faith in such a plan?
Unless the members of Hamas are deported, they would remain a risk within Gaza. And this plan does not require major deportation.
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When Trump released his plan, he warned Hamas that they had three to four days to provide an answer. When Qatar suggested that more negotiations were necessary, the rejoinder by Trump was that only a yes or no answer would be acceptable. This was encouraging. But already we see the ways in which there will be stalling.
Late Friday, the terror group announced that it was prepared to comply with the first part of Trump’s plan:
“…in order to achieve a cessation of hostilities and a complete withdrawal from the Gaza Strip [i.e., of Israel], the movement announces its agreement to release all Israeli prisoners, both living and dead, according to the exchange formula contained in President Trump’s proposal, provided the field conditions for the exchange are met. In this context, the movement affirms its readiness to immediately enter into negotiations through the mediators to discuss the details of this agreement.
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It must be noted that Hamas did not agree to all the stipulations of the plan. It was supposed to be accepted as a package, but they are dealing piecemeal and with provisos.
Ignoring the fact that the plan was not being accepted in total by Hamas, Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform that, “Based on the Statement just issued by Hamas, I believe they are ready for a lasting PEACE.” That was a serious overstatement of the situation, and very troubling. It suggested that Trump may not require Hamas to toe the line on the full plan.
There are reports indicating that Netanyahu had intended to put out a negative statement because Hamas had not agreed to the full package. But this over-the-top statement by Trump made it difficult for him to do this.
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In point of fact, many of us were astonished by the Hamas statement. Not because we saw peace on the horizon, but because of an alleged readiness to release all the hostages. They have held them as bargaining chips for two years. Would they truly release them all at once now?
If indeed they are ready to do so (do not hold your breath!), it would be because of the various pressures currently being brought to bear upon them. There are the recent military actions of the IDF, weakening terrorist strongholds as our troops moved into Gaza City. Netanyahu maintains that this is what has effected the shift in the Hamas position.
And then, there is pressure by Trump, who makes some impressive threats, and a consortium of Arab states – Egypt, Qatar, Turkey – that is leaning on them as never before.
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The “exchange formula” alluded to in the Hamas acceptance statement refers to the release of “250 life sentence prisoners plus 1,700 Gazans who were detained after October 7th.” The “1,700 Gazans” may be nominally civilians, but it must be understood that they were complicit in the massacre. Hillel Frisch, whom I cite further below, refers to them accurately as “terrorists.” (Please note that Hamas, in its statement, refers to the hostages as “prisoners,” thereby generating a false equivalency with the prisoners we hold.)
This provision is a matter is of critical importance, yet it somehow receives very little media attention – as if it is a given, hardly worthy of discussion. But now is precisely the time to discuss it with utmost seriousness.
“This is a price Israel cannot afford to pay,” declared MK Simcha Rothman on Saturday night: “250 terrorists with blood on their hands that walk free – that’s one huge price.”
Let’s look at how huge it is:
Hillel Frisch, Senior Fellow at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategic Studies, says this deal is worse than Oslo.
“How,” he asks, “will replenishing Hamas’s ranks with 1,700 terrorists, many of whom perpetrated the savage massacre on October 7, 2023, as well as the former terrorists sentenced to life imprisonment, who will no doubt fulfill the depleted military leadership ranks of the organization, promote comprehensive peace?
“What if most of those released and the thousands of terrorists in Gaza not yet killed or apprehended do not agree ‘to commit to peaceful coexistence and to decommission their weapons’ or don’t ‘wish to leave Gaza…
“Will ‘the supervision of independent monitors’ be sufficient to rein them in and ensure that all ‘military, terror, and offensive infrastructure, including tunnels and weapon production facilities… be destroyed and not rebuilt?’ (Clause 13)
“Can ‘independent monitors’ possibly achieve what the IDF, using airpower, artillery, tanks, and crack troops only partially achieved in two years of warfare?”
https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-869381
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“Among the high-profile prisoners expected to be freed is Ibrahim Hamad, 60, who planned and organized dozens of attacks against Israelis, many of them suicide bombings.
“Among other attacks, he planned the bombing at Café Moment, where 11 Israelis were killed and 65 wounded; the Sheffield club in Rishon LeZion in 2002, where 15 Israelis were killed and 57 wounded; and the Hebrew University [attack] that same year, where nine people were killed and about 100 were injured. Israel refused to free him in the Shalit deal.”
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/415837
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“At the center of Hamas’s demands are veteran prisoners Marwan Barghouti, Ahmad Saadat and Abdullah Barghouti, figures seen by many Palestinians as symbols of resistance and by Israel as masterminds of deadly attacks.”
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/byjhz11xagg
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The Hamas statement includes the proviso: “provided the field conditions for the exchange are met.” This refers to expectations regarding IDF redeployment in stages over the course of the agreement.
I do not have clarity on exactly where our troops in Gaza are now and under what conditions. When Trump made his statement about Hamas’s alleged intention to pursue peace, he demanded that the IDF stop shooting.
Our troops were then limited to defensive actions only, but all shooting was not stopped and they were not moved. Subsequently, the IDF did apparently agree to prepare to move back to one line within Gaza but continued to circle Gaza City. It has been made clear that the safety of our troops is the first priority.
This is what I fear most: stalling tactics by Hamas, which says that negotiations – which it would drag out – are necessary. The IDF would be stalled in limbo. This cannot be permitted to happen.
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Hamas had said negotiations were required for making the arrangements for releasing hostages and a meeting was scheduled to begin in Cairo on Monday (with Israel, Hamas, the US, Qatar and Egypt present). Minister of Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer was to head the Israeli delegation. But now it has been announced that Dermer won’t be going yet, while the negotiating team that was to accompany him will go, after briefings with Netanyahu.
At the same time, it was announced that Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, who were to head the US delegation, were not going to Cairo yet either. This is a sure sign of a problem or stalling.
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According to a statement today from Defense Minister Yisrael Katz, “The IDF is in the heart of Gaza City and is ready for any possibility. If Hamas refuses to free the hostages, the IDF will once again step up the intensity of fire until its defeat and all captives are freed.”
What is reassuring is that the prime minister’s office released a briefing today indicating that Netanyahu, in an agreement with the U.S. administration, has limited the duration of talks “to a few days maximum, with no tolerance” for delays by Hamas.
A 72-hour deadline will go into effect “from the moment all details are solidified with Hamas.” That 72-hour deadline is written into Trump’s plan (#4). What remains to be seen is how long it will take until all details are solidified.
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On Saturday night, Netanyahu made a statement in which he declared that the release of the hostages, “all of them, was coming soon, both living and deceased, in one phase, while the IDF remains deep within the Strip and in the controlling areas within it.” Hopefully, he said, during the Sukkot holiday, which implies very soon.
https://www.gov.il/en/pages/events-statement051025
He appeared ebullient, and I wondered if he was truly as certain as the message he conveyed seemed to indicate.
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Yesterday, Trump also put out a message; it strikes just the right tone:
“Hamas must move quickly, or else all bets will be off. I will not tolerate delay, which many think will happen, or any outcome where Gaza poses a threat again.”
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My heart goes out at this time to the families of the hostages, who are optimistic at the moment – filled with a hope that must be painful in its intensity, and yet aware that this all may not materialize.
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Monday night begins Sukkot, a beautiful holiday considered the Season of our Joy (Z’man Simchateinu). To all I wish a Chag Sameach and opportunities for joyous celebration.
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Tuesday, the first day of the holiday, is also October 7. And so our joy is also marked with sorrow.
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Please, pray for all of Am Yisrael.
©Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by independent journalist Arlene Kushner. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution.
