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Posted January 28, 2007

January 28, 2007

Ephraim Inbar, Director of the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, made an important point in a column, "End the Delusion," he wrote on Friday in the Post.

The "delusion," of course, is that a Palestinian state is the solution to the problems in this part of the world.

"Actually, the establishment of an embryonic Palestinian state, the PA in 1993, has led to more bloodshed and greater instability. The discredited Oslo process has allowed the PLO, which has been, inter alia, a terrorist organization, to get a territorial foothold in the Holy Land.

"Terrorist organizations are much more dangerous and lethal when they have a territorial base. Indeed the number of Israeli (and Palestinian) casualties has increased tenfold since 1993. Moreover, the emergence of the PA led to the militarization of the fragmented Palestinian society."

These basic facts should be absorbed by everyone.

The point he makes is that offering the Palestinians a "political horizon" — rather than motivating them to get their act together because they’ll see what is possible — would be counterproductive:

"…the Palestinians have already amply demonstrated their ineptitude at state-building…Nurturing the national hopes of the dysfunctional Palestinian national movement" will lead only to disappointment and frustration.

Inbar didn’t say this, but I will: when the Palestinians are disappointed and frustrated, they resort to additional violence.



Meanwhile, our vaunted foreign minister, Tzipi Livni, sails right on with her "diplomatic" efforts.

On Thursday, Livni met Abbas on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos and outlined her perceptions of what is important for that diplomatic effort: The international community must empower the "moderates," in part via financial support. (This is "we will turn all our rifles against the occupation" Abbas she is speaking about providing financial support for.) And the Palestinians must be given a "political horizon," so they will vote for the moderates in future elections.

Sigh… What is there to say that I haven’t already said a hundred times — and will likely have to say yet a hundred more?


And speaking of things that don’t change…

Hamas and Fatah are at each other again. The violence between them in the course of the last few days has been the worst yet, and this time has been occurring in Judea and Samaria as well as in Gaza. Since Thursday at least 25 are dead, including one two-year old boy caught in the gunfire when his father’s car was attacked; Al Aksa Brigades has kidnapped at least 10 members of Hamas, some of them senior municipal officials; Hamas has kidnapped a top intelligence officer loyal to Abbas; and Fatah attacked a mosque in Gaza City (undoubtedly a Hamas stronghold) and killed several worshippers.

According to Khaled Abu Toameh of the Post, today, more than 50% of Palestinians believe the civil war has begun. Toameh, who is a savvy guy, has spoken about civil war before. Perhaps this time they’re really headed that far. But many analysts observe that, while there is a genuine power struggle going on, the two factions always manage to stop before full blown war.

A Hamas spokesman has declared that this latest violence was fomented by Fatah — Hamas officials have specifically fingered Muhammad Dahlan as the one instigating the violence — in an attempt to bring down the Hamas gov’t. "Hamas will not allow Fatah conspirators to drag the Palestinians toward civil war," declared Ayman Taha. But — what a surprise! — Hamas has cancelled all meetings with Fatah regarding a unity government.

A shaky ceasefire was allegedly negotiated today by Egypt, but kidnappings continued and a member of Hamas was shot dead after the ceasefire had been called.

Now it has been announced that both sides have accepted an invitation by the Saudis to meet in Mecca for mediation.


Outgoing Chief of Staff Dan Halutz testified before the Winograd Committee for seven hours today with regard to the conduct of the Lebanon war. He admitted that it was a mistake not to call up reservists earlier. The political echelon was presented with all options, he said, and operations proceeded according to the directives of the political echelon, which called for restraint.


I close today with a statement delivered last week at the Herzliya Conference by Nobel Prize Laureate Professor Robert Aumann, who heads the Center for the Study of Rationality at Hebrew University. After discussing the threats of Iran and arms proliferation, he said:

"And now a few words about a third threat, which is perhaps the greatest of all. It does not come from Iran, nor from terrorist groups, nor from any external source. It comes from within us. ‘We have met the enemy, and it is us.’ Esteemed ladies and gentlemen, your humble servant makes his living from game theory – among other things, very serious games: games of life and death and of existence and annihilation.

"The name of the game in game theory is motivation, incentives. Earlier, we discussed the motivations of those standing on the opposite side. Motivating ourselves is the most important thing, and the thing we are losing the most.Without motivation, we will not endure. What are we doing here? Why are we here? What are we aspiring to here? We are here because we are Jewish, we are Zionist, because of our ancient bond to this land; we aspire to realize our 2,000-year-old hope of becoming a free nation in our land, the Land of Zion and Jerusalem. Without this profound understanding, we will not endure."

Without this profound understanding, we will not endure.


This posting can be found at: https://arlenefromisrael.info/current-postings/2007/1/28/posted-january-28-2007.html


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