I have been tracking the “process” – if I can call it that – that is following stage one of the “ceasefire deal.” And as has often been the case of late, I have delayed in writing because the situation has been so unclear and so fluid. I knew that by the time a posting went out, the situation would likely have shifted again.
But now it is time to write.
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When I speak about antithetical goals I mean it quite literally. The bottom line, which it is very difficult to deal with, is that it is exceedingly unlikely if not impossible to achieve both the goal of defeating Hamas so it can never again be a threat to Israel and securing the release of all of the hostages, living and dead, that Hamas still holds. The latest figure is 59 being held, with perhaps 24 believed to be still alive. But Hamas, as is very clear, is not adverse to killing hostages who are still alive.
Thus have we been seeing the back-and-forth with different plans and different reports being put out, only some of which are accurate.
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The six weeks (42 days) of stage one of the ceasefire deal has passed and in theory we were supposed to move into stage two, but – severely dissatisfied with Hamas actions and positions – we have not. We instead sought an extension of the first stage for at least another six weeks – through Ramadan and Pesach. According to a release from the Prime Minister’s Office on Sunday, “On the first day of the [proposed] framework, half of the living and deceased hostages will be released and upon its conclusion – if agreement is reached on a permanent ceasefire – the remaining living and deceased hostages will be released.” This plan was attributed to Trump envoy Steve Witkoff.
Under this plan, Israel would have continued releasing terrorists from our prisons. (The hideous ratio is 30 terrorists per released hostage and 50 for each released soldier. More on this below.) We would have continued allowing humanitarian aid into Gaza as well.
But at the moment all of this is moot, as Hamas has rejected this proposal. I had thought Hamas might accept it, as it would have given them additional weeks of ceasefire and the release of more terrorists. But I was wrong.
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/404688
According to Hamas leader Mahmoud Mardawi, “The only way to achieve stability in the region and secure the return of the prisoners is to fully implement the agreement… beginning with the second phase.”
Completing the second stage of the deal would mean the IDF pulling out with Hamas left standing. This is his “stability.”
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Israel’s first action, in the face of Hamas intransigence, was to close Gaza crossings and halt all humanitarian aid from going in. No ceasefire agreement, no aid. Israel was not going to countenance continuation of aid when no hostages were being released.
https://www.jns.org/israel-halts-aid-to-gaza-after-hamas-rejects-us-ceasefire-proposal/
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The IDF made it clear that Hamas has stockpiled enough material for four to six months. Since the ceasefire began on January 19, 25,200 aid trucks carrying food, water and medicine have entered Gaza, alongside more than half a million tents and 2,100 fuel tankers.
What is more, Israel has not halted the flow of water, and Gazans requiring medical assistance are still being permitted to cross into Israel.
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On Sunday, at the Cabinet meeting, Prime Minister Netanyahu made a statement.
It included the following (emphasis added):
“…Steve Witkoff proposed the framework for extending the ceasefire after gaining the impression that there is no possibility, at present, of bridging between the two positions, Israel’s and Hamas’s, regarding the second stage…
“I would like to make it clear: Contrary to claims that I hear from analysts in the studios, Israel is not in violation while Hamas has repeatedly violated the agreement on the first stage.
“According to the original agreement, Israel can return to fighting after the 42nd day if it has gained the impression that the negotiations have been ineffective. This article is supported in a side letter of the previous US administration and has also received the full backing and support of the Trump administration. But even so, we agreed to the Witkoff framework because we are committed to returning all of our hostages.
“While Israel has agreed to the Witkoff framework, Hamas has – so far – clung to its refusal and has not agreed to the framework…
“I would like to clarify something else: There will be no free lunches. If Hamas thinks that it will be possible to continue the ceasefire or benefit from the terms of the first stage, without us receiving hostages, it is sorely mistaken…
“It must be emphasized: Hamas currently controls all of the supplies and goods that are being sent to the Gaza Strip. It is abusing the Gazan population that is trying to receive the aid, it is shooting at them and is turning the humanitarian aid into a budget for terrorism directed against us. To this we will not agree in any way.”
https://www.gov.il/en/pages/pm-netanyahu-s-remarks-at-the-start-of-the-government-meeting-2-mar-2025
The final paragraph above is of particular importance. Israel is being accused of inhumane treatment of the civilian population of Gaza. But it is Hamas, once again, that is punishing the civilians.
Israel is shutting down Hamas access to supplies.
Equally important is the fact that the Trump administration is on board with what we are doing. We have received consistent support.
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But this is just the beginning: we are now on the edge of something different, which should – I pray – turn the situation around.
As of this Thursday, a new IDF Chief of Staff, Maj. Gen. Eyal Zamir, will have assumed his position, as Herzi Halevy steps down. (He should have left a long time ago.)
Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz had instructed Zamir to develop a plan for taking over Gaza. Dissatisfied with Halevy’s plan, which he said was “too timid,” he came up with something considerably tougher.
“The plan is to conquer the entire Gaza Strip in one fell swoop with more than 50,000 soldiers, relocating the civilian population to humanitarian zones, and waging a ‘ruthless ground campaign’ in terrorist-heavy areas…
“The campaign is to commence with heavy aerial bombardments…Israel Defense Forces divisions would simultaneously enter the Strip in the north, center and south, carving it into three parts…
“The general estimates that the war will end in six months or less…
“Brig. Gen. (res.) Amir Avivi, founder of the Israel Defense and Security Forum (IDSF), is quoted as saying that the war this time ‘is going to be decisive. Israel will use every tool it has to conquer Gaza and eradicate Hamas.’
“Col. (res.) Hezi Nehama…said, according to the report, ‘We’re going to see four to five divisions simultaneously attack in the north, in the center and in the south, to occupy every area and clear out the enemy. It will look different than what we saw in the war until now’…
“The war could be paused if the Hamas leadership agrees to free hostages, or if it agrees to disarm and go into exile…” (All emphasis added)
Two factors are seen as making this plan feasible. One is the fact that we are now able to pull troops from Lebanon in the north. The other is the support of President Trump.
It was anticipated that this would begin in four to six weeks, as time is required for full mobilization and preparation.
https://www.jns.org/report-israel-to-conquer-gaza-with-overwhelming-force-to-defeat-hamas/
All right then!!
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Following this news there were reports that Netanyahu was considering resuming the war briefly, sooner than four to six weeks, in order to pressure Hamas into releasing hostages. Not at all sure this would work. It is sometimes difficult to know what is being advanced seriously and what is intended to intimidate Hamas.
Last night Defense Minister Katz said:
“Despite the repeated violations by the Hamas terrorist organization and its refusal of the outline proposed by President Trump’s special envoy for the Middle East, [Steve] Witkoff, we have responded to the mediators’ request to allow a few more days of negotiations – and in the meantime, we have stopped humanitarian aid to Gaza,
If Hamas does not release the hostages soon – the gates of Gaza will be closed and the gates of hell will open…
“We will return to fighting, and they will meet the IDF with strength and in ways they have never known – until complete victory.”
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/404813
“A few more days of negotiations,” that is, to convince Hamas to start releasing hostages again. How long are we talking about? Word is that Witkoff, who has delayed coming back here twice because the negotiating climate wasn’t good, is on his way now.
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What we are seeing here is the painful struggle to achieve those antithetical goals. Once we go to war in order to eliminate Hamas, there will be no more hostage releases. This is precisely why Hamas is not interested in releasing them – they are a hedge, a guarantee.
At the same time that the report on the plans to destroy Hamas was made public, there were continuing demonstrations demanding that Netanyahu go to a final ceasefire that would (presumably) secure the release of the hostages. But no, we cannot do that. Not if we value the future of our country and the safety of all of Am Yisrael.
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Alon Ohel is in captivity in Gaza and in horrendous condition.
Released hostages who were with him have reported to his mother, Idit, about his situation. Terribly distraught, she is trying to publicize his plight and is asking people to spread the word about his condition.
“I pray that our efforts will bring Alon back to us soon. I need you—all of Israel. Help me bring Alon back alive.
“I call on the leadership of Israel, I beg you—let’s bring Alon home before it’s too late. Aloni, I promise you, I will not rest or give up.”
My heart breaks for her; but it is not clear to me what she is seeking in her desperation. Hamas certainly doesn’t care about her heartbreak; in fact, they are undoubtedly enjoying her expressions of anguish. And how does she expect the leadership of Israel to bring him home? Should we tell Hamas that we will cancel plans to attack if they release Alon? Or that we will move directly to the ceasefire of stage two and leave them standing to attack us again (and take more hostages)?
This is an obscene situation. But it is always appropriate to lift our voices in prayer.
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I have previously cited Professor Yisrael Aumann, who in 2005 received the Nobel Prize for his work on Game Theory. It is valuable to share his words again here because they are so relevant to our current struggle.
Referring to the deal which has now come to an end that called for the release of 33 Israeli hostages in exchange for about 1,900 imprisoned terrorists – many of them murderers serving multiple life sentences – he said, in a word, it was “Crazy.”
In an interview with JNS, Aumann said that “The basis of Game Theory is to give incentives to the other side to do what’s good for you. And we keep doing the opposite. We are literally killing ourselves. We are killing our own children. It’s not only that they will kidnap more. We are incentivizing them to attack us again and again, to make war against us, to repeat Oct. 7.”
In assessing the rate of recidivism of the terrorists who have been released, he estimated that in this instance we might in the future see 250 to 300 terror attacks in which at least one person is killed.
“That’s at least 250 dead for 33 live hostages.
“Just on that basis alone, it’s obviously a terrible deal.
“But that’s not the worst of it. The worst of it is that again and again we’re going to have people kidnapped. We’ve shown the enemy that it’s worth it, that we will completely give up and raise a white flag even if you abduct one.” (Emphasis added)
It is difficult to face this square on, when the ethic that is being promoted is saving our hostages, as the first priority. What makes it easier to look past it is the fact that the professor is projecting into the future about something that has not happened yet.
But I would suggest that we should be paying attention.
https://www.jns.org/nobel-laureate-on-terrorist-release-deal-were-killing-ourselves/
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“In a deeply emotional ceremony on Friday, Yarden Bibas completed a Sefer Torah in memory of his wife, Shiri Bibas, and their two children, Ariel and Kfir.”
The Torah came from the Palm Beach Synagogue in Florida, which had specially prepared it to honor the memory of Shiri, Ariel, and Kfir; Yarden was given the honor of writing the last three letters on the scroll. The Torah will be placed in the synagogue of Kibbutz Nir Oz, where both of his sons had their Brit Milah.
The scroll is covered in orange, the color that has become a symbol of the Bibas family, and has a picture of them on it with an inscription from Eichah (Lamentations 2:19):
“Pour out thy heart like water before the face of the Lord; lift up thy hands toward Him for the life of thy young children.”
https://worldisraelnews.com/yarden-bibas-completes-sefer-torah-in-memory-of-his-wife-and-children/
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I ask for prayers for Israel’s wellbeing – for the wisdom and strength of our leaders and the safety of all Am Yisrael.
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©Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by independent journalist Arlene Kushner. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution.
