Things will get easier, I have full confidence. But I cannot say when; this is a tough spot.
A primary focus at present is on our north, which continues to endure one barrage after another of Hezbollah rockets – on Sunday, hundreds were launched, across the Galil from the Golan Heights west along the coast, aiming at Haifa, down to Hadera and other communities south towards the center of the country and Tel Aviv.
Several people have been wounded and there is property damage.
https://worldisraelnews.com/9-injured-as-hezbollah-pounds-central-israel-and-haifa/
Those who live in the targeted areas endure constant disruption to their lives, as they head for shelters again and again. The resilience of these residents has been superb, but there is a heavy price to be paid in terms of tension, and anxiety, especially amongst the children.
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At the very same time the IDF has been hitting hard in Lebanon, going into Beirut and operating at the Syrian border with Lebanon.
In Beirut, Israel carried out airstrikes against 12 Hezbollah command centers in the city’s southern suburb of Dahiyeh, a stronghold of Hezbollah.
Situated within those command centers were Hezbollah’s intelligence division and Unit 4400, which was responsible for delivering weapons from Iran to Lebanon.
Additionally, Israel attacked a crossing at the Syrian-Lebanon border that was utilized for moving weapons from Syria to Hezbollah in Lebanon. It is essential that Hezbollah be prevented from rearming.
After a 12-hour lull, the rocket attacks by Hezbollah have begun again today.
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Yesterday (Sunday), the reports surfaced of a possible ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon.
We do not negotiate with Hezbollah. However, according to Israel’s Channel 12, Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, must grant final approval for any ceasefire agreement.
https://www.jns.org/netanyahu-convenes-closed-door-meeting-on-lebanon-ceasefire-talks/
If this is true, it is extremely telling.
Khamenei, by the way, now says that the ICC should follow through on its warrant for Netanyahu’s arrest and issue death sentences. This is incitement of the first order. Is anyone paying attention?
US Envoy Amos Hochstein has been in the area attempting to forge a final agreement, and former US ambassador to Israel Dan Shapiro is now on his way here to discuss the security aspects of the deal.
It makes me nervous. Very nervous. The pressure is on, and we need our government to stand tough.
Hochstein has warned Israeli officials that if we don’t agree now, he’s giving up and we will have to wait for the Trump administration to serve as mediator.
Apparently, Israel has agreed to the basic terms of the agreement, but a number of sources indicate that there are several issues still to be ironed out. Almost always, when you read this, it is a signal that the deal is not as close as it seems to be (or as close as involved parties might maintain).
This morning, Lebanon’s Al-Akhbar newspaper reported that “ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Lebanon face multiple contradictions. The report indicates that Lebanon describes a reality where there are leaks about significant progress toward an agreement on one hand, while citing difficulties preventing its implementation on the other.”
https://www.israelhayom.com/2024/11/25/after-late-night-meeting-progress-toward-lebanon-deal/
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The basic terms: Following a truce, Israel would withdraw from Lebanon and Hezbollah would slowly withdraw from the south of Lebanon, repositioning behind the Litani River. The Lebanese army would take over in southern Lebanon and be responsible for ensuring the Hezbollah did not move south again.
Additionally – and this is key! – the Lebanese army would be required to conduct a comprehensive operation to remove weapons from villages in Southern Lebanon, supervised by CENTCOM (a US combat command that has responsibility in the Middle East).
But Hezbollah controls Lebanon and the Lebanese army is weak. We’ve been there, done that, when UNSC Resolution 1701 was first passed in 2006.
What is more, the use by Hezbollah of homes in the villages for storage of weapons has been well documented. The Alma Research and Education Center, which researches Israeli security challenges along the border with Lebanon, estimates that every third house in southern Lebanon has been used by Hezbollah for its needs.
Hezbollah has installed officials, who serve as a liaison (a “Rabat”) in villages across Lebanon; they establish a relationship with the villagers.
According to Tal Beeri, head of research for Alma (pictured), “In places where Hezbollah decides to expropriate or lease civilian land or properties from the residents for the purpose of its military activities, the ‘Rabat’ conducts the expropriation or leasing procedure vis-à-vis the relevant resident.”
Now I ask you, my friends, does anyone seriously believe that the Lebanese army – with CENTCOM officials peering over their shoulders – would be able to remove all Hezbollah weapons in southern Lebanon? Never mind all of them, even most of them.
This is a farce.
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Israel is said to be seeking guarantees that the IDF would be able to take action if Hezbollah were to move south again, as well as taking action at the Syrian border with Lebanon if there were weapons being moved to Hezbollah.
The ideal way to ensure this would be if the IDF defeated Hezbollah sufficiently to drive them north. Or, at the very least by maintaining a presence in south Lebanon.
But the push is to get Israel out. We are, instead, expected to rely on a small consortium of nations (referred to as a “monitoring mechanism”), headed by the US, that would oversee the situation.
From JNS we see this (emphasis added):
“Recent diplomatic efforts have aimed at minimizing situations where Israel will violate Lebanese sovereignty in response to a breach of the agreement. The goal is to empower the international monitoring mechanism as much as possible, while establishing clear criteria for when Israel can exercise its military freedom of action.”
https://www.jns.org/netanyahu-convenes-closed-door-meeting-on-lebanon-ceasefire-talks/
But Israel does not have “military freedom of action” if we cannot act without the permission of this mechanism. It is the mechanism that will be empowered.
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As I write, we are on the edge. Netanyahu has had meetings with security officials and with Hochstein and word is coming out that the US has supplied “guarantees” regarding freedom of action. Yet the decision as to when the IDF could enter Lebanon apparently would still rest with the “monitoring committee.”
The US sees this as very close to a “done deal.” Yet an Israeli source has told Kan News that “the final green light has not yet been given for the agreement – there are still issues to be discussed on the agenda.”
And a source familiar with the details told Kan News, “The American administration is waiting to hear answers and updates from the parties – and to resolve the ‘small’ issues that still remain to be resolved.” Small?
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/399744
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Avichai Stern, the mayor of Kiryat Shmona, a city in northern Israel, responded to reports of a deal:
“Just before signing the surrender agreement, I call on our leaders to stop and think about the children of Kiryat Shmona. Look them in the eye and do not seal their fate as the next hostages. This agreement brings the October 7th attack closer to the north, and that must not happen. I do not understand how we went from a complete victory to a complete surrender.
“Why don’t we finish what we started?! We managed to collapse the Hezbollah organization and instead of continuing to crush the organization and collapse it to the ground, we are giving it oxygen and resuscitating it? And where will our residents return? To a ruined city without security and without a horizon?! Has someone here gone crazy?” (Emphasis added)
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And Otzma Yehudit chairman National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir tweeted (emphasis added):
“The deal with Lebanon is a big mistake. A historic missed opportunity to eradicate Hezbollah. I understand all the constraints and explanations, and still, it’s a big mistake
“Right now, when Hezbollah is down and begging for a ceasefire, we can’t stop.
“…Mister Prime Minister – it’s not too late to stop this deal. We must continue until total victory.”
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/399729
And I concur.
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As we wait, IDF Chief of Staff Halevi “has instructed IDF General Staff directorates to continue developing and finalizing comprehensive operational plans for both the failure of negotiations and possible breaches of any agreement by Hezbollah, should one be reached.”
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Please, pray with a full heart…
[] for the safety of the Jewish People everywhere,
[] for the continued strength and courage of Israel’s leaders as they make the hard decisions,
[] for the safety of our soldiers in battle as they fight a righteous war,
[] and for the rescue of the hostages.
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©Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by independent journalist Arlene Kushner. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution.
