As I write, it is chol hamoed, the intermediate days of Pesach – in the nature of a half-holiday. School is off, some people take off from work. Families go on day trips – Israelis are very family-oriented.
Israel Tour Guide
The mood is more relaxed than would be the case during a “regular” week. And oh, do we need every one of these relaxed intervals – they sustain us during times that continue to be fraught with tension and confusion.
~~~~~~~~~~
There are two issues I wish to touch upon here.
One is the matter of an agreement with Hamas to secure the release of additional hostages. I am not optimistic; the realities are harsh.
There are 59 hostages still being held by Hamas. The majority are dead; I read estimates of somewhere between 21 and 24 who are still alive. Some two weeks ago, Egypt had put forward a deal for the release of five hostages, to include American-Israeli lone soldier Edan Alexander, pictured. He is the last living American captive and Trump is very eager to see him brought out. The releases would be in exchange for a ceasefire, resumption of humanitarian aid and an agreement on Israel’s part to negotiate stage two of the original ceasefire. Hamas was receptive; Israel refused this deal.
Foley Foundation
A new proposal was then put forward by Egypt: Hamas would release nine hostages in addition to Edan Alexander, in exchange for the release of over 1,000 additional prisoners, and a ceasefire of up to 70 days.
But as of two days ago, Hamas made it clear that it will only agree to a deal if it receives a commitment from Israel, guaranteed by the international community, that the war would be ended for good.
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/406817
This is something we will not agree to: we cannot leave Hamas standing.
According to a report from AFP, Hamas official Taher al-Nunu said all hostages could be released in exchange for an end to the war and a “serious prisoner swap.” Moving past the insult of equating terrorists and hostages as “prisoners,” understand that this would mean all of the terrorists in our prisons would be let free to inflict further damage on the Israeli people, while Hamas was left standing in Gaza. The suggestion that all hostages might be released surprised me, because I consider it exceedingly likely that Hamas would want to hold on to some of them as bargaining chips; undoubtedly, they would not all be released, if at all, until the IDF was totally out of Gaza and international guarantees were in place.
But it’s all moot. Every report other than this one was still referring to the release of nine or perhaps ten hostages. Al-Nunu was perhaps floating this idea as a trial balloon.
~~~~~~~~~~
Yesterday (Tuesday), there was a new development in the situation: According to Hamas spokesman Abu Obaida (real name Hudhaifa Kahlout), contact with the group holding Edan Alexander was lost following an Israeli airstrike.
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/406877
This was reported by journalist Trey Yingst, a reputable American journalist who serves as a correspondent for Fox News.
Courtesy Fox
Do I believe the Hamas claim? No reason why I should. They lie constantly; what their game is here remains to be seen. I have seen no word on this from President Trump.
~~~~~~~~~~
Defense Minister Katz has indicated that there are no plans at present to send humanitarian assistance into Gaza because this serves as a pressure point against Hamas, which utilizes the aid to control the population.
Work is being done on establishing methods – “infrastructure for distribution through civilian companies” – for getting humanitarian aid to the civilians without Hamas having access to it.
~~~~~~~~~~
According to a report from Times of Israel, the IDF reported today that while it continued to ramp up pressure on Hamas, designed to get it to agree to a hostage deal, it was holding off on a major offensive, as this would likely collapse negotiations completely. There is no deadline for when this offensive might begin. The current strategy is also preparing the ground for that offensive.
IDF
Israel had proposed pausing the war, freeing more hostages, and negotiating the disarmament of Palestinian terror groups in Gaza. But Hamas, not surprisingly, rejected this.
https://www.npr.org/2025/04/15/g-s1-60361/israel-hamas-gaza-ceasefire-talks
~~~~~~~~~~
If negotiating a hostage release seems complicated, I would suggest that negotiating a deal between the US and Iran aimed at preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons is more so. This is a critical situation, and a great deal depends upon it. Iran is very close to going nuclear, and time is of the essence. President Trump has indicated as much.
Trump has a history of being tough on Iran. During his first administration, he pulled out of the deal (JCPOA) that Obama had negotiated – a deal that was a horror in part because of a twilight clause that gave Iran latitude to develop nuclear weapons after a specified date.
ABC News
The expectation when he returned for a second term was that he would render Iran incapable of developing nuclear weaponry. In order to weaken them he quickly levied sanctions that Biden had removed. Recently, he significantly escalated the US military presence in the region as well: Broadly, the expectation was that he would move forward using a military approach, either by giving Israel the nod to attack or advancing a direct US attack.
But then when he met with Netanyahu in the Oval Office on April 7, he dropped the news that he would be pursuing talks with Iran. Should not have been a surprise, I suppose, because Trump loves deals, but it was.
He still held out the possibility of military attack over the head of the Iranians if negotiations were not conducted speedily and with good results. His comment was that Israel would lead the attack. But then he backtracked and said, well, no one leads the US.
If I could clarify what this means, I would be happy to do so. But what we see is that in recent days Trump has significantly ramped up military deployments in the region – which could have the aim of pressuring Iran to do serious negotiation or be preparation for significant attack:
“Two carrier strike groups, including the USS Carl Vinson (pictured), are now positioned in the region, alongside additional fighter squadrons and B-2 stealth bombers stationed at Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, additional fighter aircraft, and missile defense systems deployed in strategic locations for the United States across the Middle East….
These assets, capable of delivering precision strikes deep into Iranian territory, are not merely symbolic…This isn’t just the Trump administration posturing— it’s the build up of a very viable military option.”
dvids
~~~~~~~~~~
Netanyahu is convinced that an attack on Iran is necessary. He is ready to do this and believes that now or in the months ahead is the most opportune time. Last year in an attack on Iran, Israel took out Iran’s early warning system, so that the nation is now particularly vulnerable.
Abir Sultan/AFP
Our prime minister is adamant that the only way negotiations could be successful in preventing Iran from going nuclear is if the Libyan model was used: Libya was required to entire dismantle its nuclear equipment.
But that is not the way matters are progressing in this instance.
~~~~~~~~~~
This past Saturday, the first meeting was held in Oman between the US and Iran.
On Monday, in a session with the press, Trump said:
“We’ve got a problem with Iran, but I’ll solve that problem, that’s almost an easy one…
“Iran wants to deal with us, but they don’t know how. We had a meeting with them on Saturday. We have another meeting scheduled for next Saturday. I said that’s a long time…
“I think they’re tapping us along because they were so used to dealing with stupid people in this country…
“Iran has to get rid of the concept of a nuclear weapon, they cannot have a nuclear weapon…”
If he had to attack militarily, he would, he declared: “if we have to do something very harsh, we’re going to do it.”
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/406828
All of this sounds reassuring, with one very major proviso. While Trump sounds savvy and tough, it is Steve Witkoff who is handling the negotiations, and Witkoff is very ill-equipped to manage this. He is not a professional negotiator, and he has very little understanding of the Iranian mentality or the Iranian propensity for deceit and cheating.
His recent comments were greatly disturbing. He spoke for the first time of possibly allowing Iran to enrich uranium at a lower lever for civilian purposes: 3.67%, and certainly not the 20% to 60% at which Iran has been enriching uranium, clearly for military purposes. However, once the equipment is permitted to remain in place for any enrichment, the potential for Iran to move ahead with higher enrichment exists.
Nor, it appears, is Witkoff focusing on the issue of Iranian assistance to its proxies. He spoke about focusing on enrichment and “verification on weaponization.”
After Trump spoke in tough terms, however, Witkoff put out another statement that was stronger. Any deal that will go through will be a Trump deal, he declared. If this will be the case, it eases concerns.
~~~~~~~~~~
I ask for prayers for Israel’s wellbeing.
Pray for the wisdom and courage of our leaders.
Pray for the safety of our brave troops.
Pray that the hostages will be brought home.
~~~~~~~~~~
©Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by independent journalist Arlene Kushner. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution.
