When planning this posting – a follow-up to the last, which focused in good measure on the Netanyahu-Trump meeting as it pertained to Iran – my intention was to look at the implications of that meeting with regard to Gaza.
But what I will write here is not the same in all regards as what I had intended to write just days ago.
After the meeting, Trump stated in multiple venues that there would be “hell to pay” (a favorite phrase of his) if Hamas didn’t disarm. My response – and the response of many others – to that was “yeah, yeah…he makes a lot of threats but that’s all they are: threats.” I considered his statement to be bombast and nothing more.
In fact, on December 29, at a press conference, Trump made several statements that simply did not comport with the facts:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RxFbOEbhBDQ
(There is repetition here, I recognize, but this video conforms with other sources I checked, and you can see what Trump claimed.)
~~~~~~~~~~
According to Trump there are 59 countries ready to disarm (“wipe out”) Hamas, so that Israel isn’t even needed. This is major balderdash. Israel is the only country ready to take on Hamas. Other countries have declined to do so, offering to assist only in other ways.
He also said that Hamas promised to disarm. Not that I am aware of. Repeatedly, Hamas leaders have declared that they have no intention of surrendering their arms. Trump claims that he has now given Hamas a short interval of time to disarm or it will be “horrible for them, horrible…” That “short interval” was later identified as being two months.
Three days after Trump’s press conference, Hamas spokesman Osama Hamdan, in his own press conference, responded to Trump’s claims. There was no two-month deadline, he said. “Nothing has reached us officially, neither from the mediators nor from anyone else. Talking about deadlines for handing over weapons is an American leap into the air in favor of Israel.”
https://worldisraelnews.com/hamas-trump-has-not-given-us-2-month-deadline-to-disarm/
~~~~~~~~~~
What we have seen in recent days has been an eagerness on the part of Trump to begin phase two of his “peace plan.” He said that this phase was “going to begin pretty soon” and he seemed to indicate that it would move forward whether Hamas has disarmed or not. And let us not forget that all hostages, living and dead, are supposed to be returned before the second phase begins, and we still await the return of the remains of the final hostage, Ran Gvili.
I have read reports of some preliminary clearing of areas on the Israeli side of the yellow line around Rafah in preparation for development. And I wondered then if, in the end, the US envisioned movement on development of one portion of Gaza with Hamas remaining, still armed, on the other side.
It would appear that Trump is caught in a quagmire in Gaza, with no resolution is sight. But who knows? In the video above Trump explains that there are “59 countries” ready to take on Hamas. What he said was that these countries “don’t want…” at which point he then rephrased his statement, “…don’t need Israel to be involved.”
He had it right the first time. He is working with Qatar and Turkey and others who are adamant about Israel not being involved and eager to ensure that Hamas will stand. Meanwhile, Hamas strengthens daily and Israel is most certainly not pulling back under these circumstances.
What Trump may or may not have promised Netanyahu in the course of their meeting, is something to which we are not privy.
~~~~~~~~~~
All of this said, I want to clarify what day I had in mind when choosing the title for this posting: It was the day on which Trump moved past making threats against President Maduro and ordered a bold and stunning action in order to pull him from his home in Venezuela and land him in prison in the US.
There are those – frequently on the left – who disapprove of what he did. A common charge is that what Trump was really after was control of Venezuelan oil fields.
Others praise his action highly. See the words of Shoshana Bryen, Senior Director of the Jewish Policy Center (emphasis added):
“Since the days of Thomas Jefferson’s war against the Barbary pirates, the US military has protected our people and our way of life, regardless of the situation presented to them by the political establishment…
“…In Venezuela, more than 150 aircraft, including fighter aircraft, bombers, surveillance aircraft, intelligence aircraft, and helicopters, flew from 20 different bases. The mission included the Army, Navy, Air Force, Marines, and Space Force, as well as the CIA, NGA, and NSA. ‘We watched, we prepared, we remained patient and professional,’ US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, Dan Caine, told the assembled press at President Donald Trump’s news conference on Saturday…
“In his remarks Saturday, Gen. Caine said, ‘We think, we develop, we train, we rehearse, we debrief, we rehearse again and again, not to get it right, but to ensure that we cannot get it wrong. Our jobs are to integrate combat power so when the order comes, we can deliver overwhelming force at the time and the place of our choosing against any foe anywhere in the world.’
“…Military operations to secure our country do not require a ‘declaration of war’ by Congress. They do, however, require a ready, precise, and well-led military to achieve their goals. The United States has such a force. It is a blessing.”
~~~~~~~~~~
The fact that the US has a ready, precise, and well-led military, and, as it turns out, a commander-in-chief prepared to utilize that military in bold actions, is enough to make our enemies sit up and take notice. In the last handful of days, I have observed a shift in attitude towards Trump, as people note that, hey, he may be bombastic – that’s just who he is. But apparently he is also ready to act.
And I would suggest that in certain circumstances the recognition that he might act is itself sufficient to shift the dynamic.
I do not know if this new perception will shift the dynamic in Gaza. Will Hamas be less confident, more afraid now? Trump has threatened them, but he frequently threatens. Could he mean it this time? Are they uneasy that he might mean it?
~~~~~~~~~~
Where I believe it is more likely to make a difference is with regard to Iran.
Reports circulating indicate that Khameini has a carefully laid out plan in place, should the unrest in the streets get out of control. He would exit with family and a handful of close aides and would secure a safe haven in Russia.
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/hkf5hnuv11g
According to the JPost, the US may be considering some sort of action in Iran to support the protesters. This is not confirmed: “The Jerusalem Post has received multiple potential indications that the US is considering some kind of intervention in the Iran protests standoff…”
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-882420
Is Khamenei, privy to these reports, more likely to flee because of the actions Trump has taken in Venezuela? And because Trump has already warned that “we are locked, loaded, and ready to go,” with regard to responding to violence against peaceful Iranian demonstrators?
Analyst Herb Keinon reminds us that for years Iran’s security establishment considered Trump’s tough rhetoric as TACO – Trump Always Chickens Out (a term coined by a Financial Times columnist). Now the Iranians are re-thinking the way in which they must assess Trump’s threats.
Should Khamenei depart, this would, of course, signal the end of the regime.
~~~~~~~~~~
I would like to share observations by Saeed Ghasseminejad, a senior advisor on Iran for the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies (emphasis added):
“For a week, the Islamic Republic has tried to tell itself, and the world, that the protests in Iran are merely about the price of the dollar. They are wrong.
“As the shutters rolled down in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar in protest, a different sound rose up from the universities and the streets of Isfahan, Mashhad, Qom, Kermanshah, and Hamadan. It was not a cry for subsidies. It was a chant for the death of the Islamic Republic and the return of Pahlavi…
“The revival of a modern Iranian nationalism has bridged the class divide, creating a unified front that the mullahs fear more than any foreign army…
“The stakes have now transcended Iran’s borders. By murdering demonstrators and hunting down dissidents, Khamenei is directly testing the red lines established by President Trump, who explicitly warned the regime about killing protesters. The White House has stated it is “locked and loaded.”
“With every drop of blood spilled, the regime pushes Washington closer to action, risking a response that could be as swift as it is devastating. President Trump’s credibility is on the line, and Tehran is foolishly betting against it.
“The trajectory from here is violent and irreversible. The West must look at these protests with clear eyes. This is not a request for reform; it is the end of the 1979 experiment. The Iranian people are tearing down the walls. Whether the regime will fall in this round of protests remains unclear. But make no mistake. The Islamic Republic is on its way out.”
https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-882426
~~~~~~~~~~
And I will close with some comments about the current situation in Venezuela, drawn from my own observations.
While I applaud the US action in Venezuela, I remain greatly uneasy about what seems to be following. Trump says he will be in charge there until matters straighten out and this will take a considerable length of time. But for this interim he has removed Maduro, and not the regime: Key figures from that regime are still in power.
Trump has not recognized the opposition, headed by Maria Corina Machado (pictured) but has put the vice president, Delcy Rodriguez, into place as acting president. Rodriguez claims she is not working with Trump.
Machado charges that she won the last election by a landslide, but Maduro refused to relinquish power. She left the country in order to receive the Nobel Peace Prize last year for her pro-democracy efforts (she dedicated that prize to Trump) and remained outside her country thereafter. Now she intends to return.
~~~~~~~~~~
I would suspect Rodriguez in any event because she was a key partner in the Maduro regime. But what clinches it for me is that after the US grabbed Maduro, she said – echoing the anti-Israel position of Maduro and Chavez before him – that the action had “Zionist undertones.”
Enough said.
~~~~~~~~~~
Please, pray for all of Am Yisrael: for the wisdom and courage of our leaders and the strength of our people.
©Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by independent journalist Arlene Kushner. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution.
