I am reminded these days of a popular Israeli song, “Gesher Tzar Meod.” drawn from the words of the Hassidic Rabbi Nachman of Beslov:
All of the world is a narrow bridge, and the most important thing is not to be afraid.
There could be no more appropriate theme song for our people now than this.
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Here we sit, awaiting the resolution of the interminable “negotiations” regarding release of Israeli hostages held by Hamas. While we await closure on those negotiations, we face the possibility of an Iranian attack in reprisal for the murder of Hamas leader Haniyeh while he was in Tehran as a guest of the Iranian government. (Israel has not claimed responsibility for this attack.)
The two are connected – at least in theory. We have had a bit of reprieve, a period of somewhat reduced tensions, as Iran declared there would be no attack until after the negotiations were completed: if there were to be a ceasefire declared as part of the agreement, there would be no Iranian attack.
I say “in theory” because we don’t really know if the Iranians would totally refrain from attacking us if there were to be a ceasefire as a result of those negotiations. Nor do we actually know if the Iranians will actually attack even if there is no ceasefire.
What we do know is that the Iranians are enjoying the stress they are causing Israelis. They have said so.
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There are indications in the last couple of days, however, that Iran may not attack at all. The latest statements coming from Tehran indicate that they will hit us at a “time and place of our choosing.” That could mean anything.
Wrote analyst Seth Franzman yesterday:
“Almost three weeks after the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran, the Iranian regime is trying to step down from its early claims it would carry out an attack on Israel in retaliation. The regime in Tehran has built up a lot of expectations regarding how it would attack Israel. Now it is trying to shift messaging.” (Emphasis added)
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-815749
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It seems likely that if Iran does level an attack, it will be similar to the April attack in which some 300 projectiles – drones, ballistic missiles and cruise missiles – were launched at Israel, with 99% taken down before reaching Israeli air space. This was because of the diligence and skill of our own air force, assisted by a coalition that included the US, Britain and France, as well as a handful of Arab nations primarily acting to protect their own air space.
That coalition, in good part, stands to assist again, if needed. I want to emphasize here that the major factor at play is avoiding an escalation that might lead to a world war. We are not witnessing an outbreak of genuine concern for the Jewish state. But we are most grateful for the assist, nonetheless.
Were Iran to level an attack such as the one in April again it would likely enable them to secure their honor and declare that they had retaliated for the killing of Haniyeh.
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Speaking of securing their honor, I have observed a shift is declarations from Iran regarding how Haniyeh was killed. What appeared to be the case – according to a much-publicized report from the NYTimes – was that the Mossad turned Iranian security personnel who planted the bombs that were detonated remotely to kill Haniyeh. The Times cited several sources, including two Revolutionary Guard officials. This story, which likely reflects the reality of what happened, was an enormous embarrassment to Tehran and increased Iranian sense of vulnerability.
But the Iranians are saying, no, it wasn’t Iranian security people who had turned, it was a missile, a seven-kilo rocket, that took out Haniyeh. I believe they are saying it was launched from outside of Iran. This still merits retribution, in their accounting, but mitigates some of the embarrassment.
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And there is another very significant reason why Iran is backing down: Iran is weak and struggling internally.
Just two days ago, Mohsen Sazegara, founder of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), granted The Jerusalem Post an exclusive interview. He said (emphasis added):
“What Israel did, I mean the alleged assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, in the heart of Tehran, in one of the most protected places, was a humiliation for the intelligence organizations of Iran. This has created a problem for Khamenei among his main powerbase – the intelligence services.
“[Khamenei’s] first reaction was that we retaliate and don’t stop. But when he referred to his military commanders and the experts in the IRGC, and they should present the options of what to do, they told him that Iran is not in a position to fight Israel. They don’t have any strategic balance. They can send missiles toward Israel, especially hypersonic missiles that can reach Israel in six to eight minutes.‘ But when Israel retaliates, then we can’t defend the country, especially air defense,’ Khamenei’s commanders told him.
“They told him that ‘Iran is not in a position to fight Israel.’”
Sazegara now lives in the US and is a pro-democracy activist.
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At the very same time that we are dealing with this, Hezbollah is mulling a major attack on Israel in reprisal for our murder of Fuad Shukr in Beirut; Shukr, who deserved to be dead, was hit in a reprisal attack by Israel after a Hezbollah rocket killed 12 innocent Israeli children who were out on a field playing soccer. Shukr had a hand in this atrocity, as well as a multiplicity of other horrors over the years.
But Hezbollah is not sitting quietly, while mulling the appropriate action to be taken in reprisal. Israel has been bombarded with Hezbollah projectiles into northern Israel since October 8, in support of Hamas. In theory, if the war were to end, Hezbollah might stop its bombardment. But who knows?
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Ultimately the Israeli military recognizes that we will have to take out Hezbollah, for our citizens in the north cannot live in safety otherwise. Tens of thousands of our people from the north have been out of their homes for months.
Two days ago, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said that Israel’s “center of gravity” is gradually moving away from the Gaza Strip to the northern front.
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Then let us turn to those negotiations, which are in the nature of a farce. What it amounts to, bottom line, is the determination of the Biden administration to secure a “ceasefire,” presumably before the election (before the end of the Democratic National Convention this week would have been even better). Then Biden could be touted as a “peacemaker,” the leader who stopped the horrible killing in Gaza. Egypt and Qatar work along with the US in this regard.
Some of you may note what Biden said during his address at the Democratic Convention this week. Referring to the noise outside generated by pro-Hamas people, he observed (emphasis added):
“Those, those protesters out in the street, they have a point. A lot of innocent people are being killed on both sides.
“We’re working around the clock. To end the civilian suffering of the Palestinian people and finally, finally, finally deliver a ceasefire and end this war.”
Note this well, my friends. Nothing about Israeli security and the need to eliminate the terrorists of Hamas. He invokes moral equivalency, with his “innocent people on both sides being killed.” No acknowledgement of the horrendous Hamas massacre of innocent Israelis, or the Hamas threat to repeat that massacre – which is why Israel must destroy Hamas. No recognition that most innocent Palestinian Arab lives being lost are as a result of Hamas using civilians as human shields. No acknowledgement that Israel is fighting with the highest standards of concern for enemy civilians that has ever been seen – a concern that sometimes causes loss of Israeli soldiers.
This is where it is, and we must face it. Biden is prepared to deliver a ceasefire that leaves Hamas standing.
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On Monday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken was in Israel for the ninth time since October 7. “I am here,” he declared, “as part of an intensive diplomatic effort on President Biden’s instructions to try to get this agreement to the line, and ultimately over the line. It’s time for it to get done.” (Emphasis added)
He met with Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu for three hours, an unusually lengthy meeting.
What had presumably been discussed were the negotiations held in Doha, Qatar at the end of last week. They were not attended by Hamas, which was negative regarding what was on the table. Under discussion was a so-called “bridging proposal” put forward by Biden’s people (media sources refer to the bridging proposal drafted by Biden but come on…). It was supposed to address concerns of both parties. But Hamas demands were clear: They wanted an end to the war, a withdrawal of IDF forces from Gaza. That, or nothing.
Blinken emerged from the meeting gushing about how positive it was, how Israel was on board, and saying it would now depend on Hamas.
When asked by journalists if Israeli withdrawal from the Philadelphi Corridor at the border with Egypt, and the Netzarim Corridor that divided Gaza north and south were included in that bridging proposal, Blinken indicated that these were details that had to be worked out in the final negotiations. Details?
Blinken met with hostage families eager to see a deal finalized and told them that this time the prime minister wanted a deal. He told them he was celebrating this.
What I saw was an attempt to put further pressure on Netanyahu by raising the expectations of the families. In various statements he seemed to imply that that he expected Israel to be on board regarding withdrawal from the corridors so that a ceasefire might be arranged.
Netanyahu clarified by the next day that he never agreed to leave the Philadelphi Corridor (which would permit smuggling of weapons from Sinai and the strengthening of Hamas) and would not do so: “Perhaps I managed to convince Blinken? I made it clear to him: Under no circumstances will Israel withdraw from the strategic positions it has secured during this conflict.” He indicated that he wasn’t certain at all there would be a deal.
When he made this statement, the prime minister was speaking with two groups opposed to making concessions to Hamas in order to achieve a hostage deal: The Heroism Forum – bereaved families who lost soldiers during the war and are adamant that they should not have died in vain, and the Tikva Forum – families of hostages who believe Israel should not make concessions to Hamas.
Not everyone concerned is for concessions to Hamas in order to secure hostage releases, although sometimes the media makes it appear so.
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Within a day, American enthusiasm for the possibility of a deal had waned and US officials were feeling negative. Yesterday, Biden called Netanyahu, and it is being reported that he asked our prime minister to “compromise” on the Philadelphia Corridor. Once again, pressure is put on Israel when Hamas does not cooperate.
Another meeting was scheduled to take place in Cairo, but I do not believe it has.
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And here I want to take a moment to applaud Prime Minister Netanyahu, who, I firmly believe, is acting out of concern for the future of Israel. He is standing strong in the face of incredible pressure, as he knows he must. He understands what horrendous mistakes led to October 7, and he is determined not to cave here. The charges against him – that he is acting for personal political gain or that he is without a heart – seem to me libelous.
One of the more disgraceful (and stupid) comments regarding this issue, came this week from that pathetic excuse for a politician Yair Lapid, who declared that if Netanyahu cared about the hostages, he would go join the negotiating team, and the fact that he hasn’t means he no longer has no soul.
Not for a second do I believe Netanyahu does not care about the hostages. But he is mindful of the fact that he has a responsibility for the security of the entire nation. Hamas is holding some 100 plus hostages, a fair percentage of whom are already dead. This week we brought back bodies of six hostages that were buried in Khan Younis (and the evidence is that they were executed). In preliminary stages of the current negotiations, Hamas offered a mix of live hostages and bodies, although we were demanding 33 live hostages. We don’t even know if 33 are still alive.
We cannot, must not, sacrifice our future security in order to ransom them, if indeed Hamas would surrender all those alive anyway – which is highly unlikely.
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Efraim Inbar, president of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS), points out some of the fallacious thinking that accompanies arguments for striking a deal now for the hostages, including (emphasis added):
“The first phase of the discussed deal with Hamas will likely end the war, and the chances of its renewal to complete the task of dismantling Hamas are slim. Sinwar will remain in Gaza with a significant number of fighters, with no opposition to hinder him from restoring Hamas’s rule over the Strip, and with the remaining hostages under his captivity, who will serve as a security buffer and a means of blackmail against Israel.
“AN IMAGE of Sinwar emerging from hiding, amid the victory cheers of Palestinian terrorists released from Israeli prisons, would represent a defeat for Israel. Moreover, when the top brass of the IDF signals fatigue and a reluctance to confront Hamas, Israel conveys weakness: a recipe for continued and even increased aggression against it.”
The argument is made by the US that once the war with Hamas is over, it will be possible to achieve normalization with Saudi Arabia. But Inbar says just the opposite might be true.
“…if Israel is perceived as losing the war, while the Saudis and other ‘moderate’ Arab states yearn for an Israeli victory over the Palestinian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood, no anti-Iranian axis that Israel is a part of will emerge. An Israeli military failure in Gaza will lead Arab states to distance themselves from Jerusalem, as it will be seen as ineffective against Iran. Even the Abraham Accords, a major American achievement, will be at risk. Israel is a desired partner only if it is strong.”
https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-815765
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If I listen to Rabbi Nachman, I should refuse to be afraid. But, I confess, sometimes I am afraid. And that fear comes not from what I see as the power of our enemies, but the possibility that we might cave to them and make concessions that would be disastrous down the road.
Every day that Bibi stands strong – and with him others in our Knesset and government, of course – is a day that I am reassured and hopeful for our future.
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Keep praying to Heaven for Israel.
Pray for the safety of all Israel.
Pray for the strength and wisdom of our leaders, for the safety of our soldiers, and for the rescue of our hostages.
Pray in a spirit of hope.
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©Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by independent journalist Arlene Kushner. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution.
