We are just two months away from inauguration day, on January 20, 2025. At that point Donald Trump will move into the White House.
The members of the Senate and House will have been sworn in on January 3rd and the Senate will have begun the process of confirming those Trump has nominated for key positions in his government.
Thus, will a new administration begin, one which will establish new policies and set new goals. For most of us here in Israel (as well as the majority of Americans) it cannot happen soon enough.
In this regard, US Senate majority leader-elect John Thune has a message for “our allies in Israel” and Jewish people around the world:
“Reinforcements are on the way. Senate Republicans reclaim the majority in six weeks, and we when we do, will make clear that the United States Congress stands squarely in Israel’s corner, and we will help the Trump-Vance Administration defend Israel and promote peace in the region.”
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But two months is still a long time away. There are worrisome actions being taken by the Biden administration, and concern about others that yet might be taken.
There is reason to be concerned in part because of a precedent set by Barack Obama in the last weeks of his administration. In late December of 2016, Obama departed from his policy to that point – and according to Prime Minister Netanyahu broke a commitment to Israel – by abstaining from a Security Council vote rather than vetoing it, thus allowing it to pass.
The vote was on Resolution 2334, which demanded an immediate halt to all Israeli settlement construction in the Judea & Samaria (aka the West Bank) and eastern Jerusalem; additionally, it called on all states “to distinguish, in their relevant dealings, between the territory of the State of Israel and the territories occupied since 1967.”
Here we see Samantha Power, then US Ambassador to the UN. In the Biden administration she has served as head of USAID and has had influence within the administration.
The resolution – which was actually advanced by the Obama administration – was not binding but had a negative diplomatic effect.
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According to Israel Hayom, quoting an American source close to the Biden administration, the US intends to approve a resolution against Israel’s presence in Judea and Samaria at the UN Security Council that states that Israel’s presence in these territories, including Jerusalem’s Old City, is contrary to international law.
It is quite unlikely that this would be a binding resolution either. It sounds like a declarative statement, not a directive for action, and only Chapter 7 resolutions are binding. But what an outrage it would be.
Please, do not ever, ever tell me that Biden is a Zionist in his heart. If the US does approve such a resolution – which implies voting for it and not just abstaining – we will see the shadow of Obama directing from behind the scenes. His hateful parting shot.
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At the same time, another resolution is on the table at the Security Council and Israel is working to get the US to veto it; such a veto is not assured as I write. In fact, the report on this (link below) says: “talks are going on between initiators of the proposal on the Arab side and the US, in an attempt to change the final wording of the resolution, so that the Americans will avoid vetoing it.”
Got that? The Arabs are working to soften the resolution just sufficiently so that the US will not veto it.
The resolution calls for a permanent and unconditional immediate ceasefire in Gaza. It additionally demands that aid to Gaza must be increased and what was defined as “activities to starve Palestinians” be stopped.
Significantly, this call for a ceasefire does not demand release of the hostages nor does it refer to Hamas as a terrorist entity.
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/399483
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Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) charges that, “This resolution is just one of several assaults on Israel being planned at the United Nations, meant to preemptively and permanently undermine the incoming Trump administration and Republican Congress.
“I will work with my Republican colleagues and with President Trump to take whatever steps are necessary to undo these measures, including fundamentally reevaluating our relationship with the U.N. and the Palestinians, broadly cutting aid, imposing sanctions on specific officials responsible for those measures, and countering governments and NGOs pushing or implementing them.” (Emphasis added)
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/399443
Senator Cruz’s statement serves an important goal. One of the best ways for the Republicans to support Israel during these end-of-term attacks by the Biden administration is to let those involved know there will be consequences once Trump comes in. It may cause some to think twice.
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And then there are the US sanctions being levied against Israelis and groups located in Judea & Samaria, or lending assistance to those who are in Judea & Samaria.
On February 1, Biden had issued an executive order that declared that that the situation in the West Bank…”has reached intolerable levels and constitutes a serious threat to the peace, security, and stability of the West Bank and Gaza, Israel, and the broader Middle East region.” Thus, the government would be levying sanctions against those responsible for threatening the peace, security and stability of Judea & Samaria, etc. Sanctions were to involve fiscal restrictions in the main – freezing of accounts, blocking access to US property, etc.
The full text of the Executive Order:
The blatant and outrageous bias of this Order became obvious almost immediately. The sanctions were to be applied to those undermining peace and security, but ONLY Jews and Jewish organizations have been sanctioned. The PA and its constituent agencies and personnel were not deemed to be undermining peace. Pay for Slay was of no import to the Biden administration. Relying upon biased sources, they went after Jews, causing hardship.
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But what has already been done by the Biden administration was not enough: it would not go out without levying some additional sanctions. On the 18th of this month, the Treasury Department put out a press release, naming new individuals to be sanctioned as well as organizations.
https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2715
One of the individuals was targeted, according to this press release, because of his association with Hashomer Yosh, which had already been targeted by the Biden administration. See for yourself about this group, which established as its most important objective “assisting the farmers throughout Judea and Samaria, who bravely protect our lands and stand strong in the face of economic difficulties and frequent agricultural crime.”
https://hashomeryosh.org/home-en/
Read between the lines on “frequent agricultural crime.” It is a not-uncommon practice for Arabs to steal livestock or otherwise undermine Jewish agriculture in Judea & Samaria. Hashomer Yosh, among its other activities, arranges for volunteers to guard the farms at night. Protecting Jewish agriculture strengthens Jewish presence in Judea & Samaria, while the Biden administration is determined to create a Palestinian state on that land.
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Also sanctioned in this latest announcement was Amana, Israel’s largest development organization in Judea and Samaria, as well as its subsidiary that does construction. This should not surprise us.
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Looking ahead to January 20th, we see a lineup of Trump nominees who are vigorously pro-Israel. It goes without saying that this presages a very different US approach to Israel by the Trump administration.
A number of Trump’s choices are evangelical Christians, who in the main are supporters of Israel’s right to the land as promised in the Bible. Their dedication to this principle goes beyond the political.
Mike Huckabee is a significant case in point.
When asked recently if annexation of the West Bank was possible now, his answer was “of course,” although he qualified it as not his decision.
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But let me take a moment here to clarify Huckabee’s position and make an important point. The article I cite is from is Times of Israel, which is center-left. It used the terms “West Bank” and “annexation.” Additionally, there are other sources that frame the question in similar terms.
However, we would never find Huckabee himself using these terms. He would speak about applying sovereignty to Judea & Samaria.
Judea & Samaria are the biblical terms for the area in question. “The West Bank” was coined by Jordan’s King Hussein, when he illegally annexed Judea & Samaria; the term referred to the west bank of the Jordan River.
The difference between annexing and applying sovereignty is also significant. To annex is to attach or incorporate. The implication here is that the land being “annexed” did not belong to Israel prior to that action.
But Judea & Samaria do belong to Israel in both historical and legal terms. The Mandate included this area, which had a lengthy and profound connection to the Jewish people. There is a principle in international customary law called Uti Possidetis Juris, which says that a newly founded sovereign state has the same boundaries as the territory that proceeded it. Thus Judea & Samaria were within the legal borders of Israel even if not under the control of Israel – as it was controlled by Jordan. Anyone who accepts this conceptualization refers to “application of sovereignty” rather than annexation. It implies full Israeli control over the area, and the application of Israeli law.
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Before pursuing the matter of application of sovereignty during Trump’s administration, I want to refer to a couple of other nominees.
One is Mike Waltz, who has been selected by Trump as National Security Advisor and will sit in the cabinet. Waltz served for 27 years as a Green Beret before being elected to Congress from Florida. Rest assured, he will be no one’s pushover. He has criticized Biden for interfering with Israel’s ability to finish the war with Hamas and Hezbollah and is reportedly in favor of Israel taking on Iran.
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Then there is Prime Minister Netanyahu’s selection of Yechiel Leiter as Israeli Ambassador to the US. Leiter – who was Netanyahu’s chief of staff when he was finance minister – is well respected and has a formidable background. A rabbi, he has a degree in law and a doctorate in political philosophy; he has been associated with the Kohelet Policy Forum, a right-wing think tank. A strong and articulate advocate for Judea & Samaria settlement, he lives in Gush Etzion. His son Moshe died in Gaza this past year.
What is clear is that Netanyahu, in selecting Leiter, has some solid measure of confidence that Trump will be receptive to ideas of sovereignty in Judea & Samaria.
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Lastly here I want to look at the role that Jared Kushner may play in Trump’s second term in the White House. Jared, who is married to Trump’s daughter Ivanka and is a financier worth billions (literally), played a pivotal role the first time Trump was president. But he had declared that he did not want to step into a similar role again, preferring to spend more time with his family.
Now it appears that he will accept no formal position, but will be an advisor, and likely a very key advisor, albeit informally, this time around.
The most consequential contribution of Kushner during Trump’s first term as president was in shaping the Abraham Accords. This was a major achievement, which changed Israel’s position in the Middle East. Trump, who is at heart a deal-maker, played a significant role as well. He had hoped to bring in other Muslim and Arab nations, in addition to the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco, which had all signed normalization treaties with Israel. But then Biden got in the way.
It is anticipated that if Kushner does become involved, this will be his focus. He has retained connections in the Arab world, most significantly with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia.
To bring the Saudis into the Abraham Accords would be a coup of major proportions, and if anyone can do it, it would be Kushner. (Do not underestimate, for a moment, his role as a high-level financier in perhaps making this possible.)
But while conditions for Saudi receptiveness to normalization with Israel seemed good for a while, this is no longer the case. Very recently he has accused Israel of genocide, utilizing the strongest language since the beginning of the war; and he has leaned further towards Iran. I confess readily that I cannot comprehend the behavior of MBS after Israel has significantly weakened Iran, nor have I found satisfactory explanations elsewhere. It remains to be seen what will transpire. There are certainly a number of other Muslim countries Kushner might approach.
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The other project Kushner was involved with – unofficially called “The Deal of the Century – was an extensively plotted peace plan for Judea & Samaria officially titled “Peace to Prosperity.” It would have recognized Israeli sovereignty over Jewish communities in Judea & Samaria but made room for a Palestinian state. This plan was rejected by the leaders of YESHA.
Whether Kushner would become involved again in such a proposal remains to be seen. It is not even certain that Trump would take the same approach today. All of this remains to be seen going forward.
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With all that I have written here, I feel it just touches the surface of all we must watch during this critical transition period.
A major concern is what will happen in Lebanon as Hezbollah continues to send rockets to our north, and a credible ceasefire proposal is not yet on the table.
My message then is to stay tuned.
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Please, pray with a full heart…
[] for the safety of the Jewish People everywhere,
[] for the continued strength and courage of Israel’s leaders as they make the hard decisions,
[] for the safety of our soldiers in battle as they fight a righteous war,
[] and for the rescue of the hostages.
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©Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by independent journalist Arlene Kushner. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution.
