We Israelis are dealing with an exceedingly difficult and complex time. We speak of the matzav, “the situation”, as we struggle to understand how we came to this place that feels never-ending. We are driven by a need to know what is currently transpiring and then, what we can likely expect ahead.
Take, by way of example, the assessment of how much damage the US attack did to the Iranian nuclear sites. Estimates vary so greatly that the head spins; you might end up accepting the estimate from the source you find most reliable, or perhaps you accept what you find most comforting. (Israeli intelligence says the damage was considerable.)
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This paradigm can be drawn upon again and again to describe various aspects of our current circumstances. As we hunger for reassurance about the ultimate outcome of our situation, we must measure carefully how we receive the perspective that political leaders offer. What is real and can buoy us, and what is likely not? What is still simply unknowable even at this juncture?
It is not for nothing that most of us are weary these days.
We are proud and determined. We hold fast to the belief that we will be fine in the end. But we are very weary, and more than a tad unsettled.
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Time and again, news hits us that feels unbearable.
On Monday, five soldiers from the Netzach Yehuda (ultra-Orthodox) Battalion were killed in an ambush in Beit Hanoun in which Hamas had placed explosive devices.
Three were from Jerusalem: St.-Sgt. Meir Shimon Amar, 20; Sgt. Moshe Nissim Frech, 20; and St.-Sgt. Noam Aharon Musgadian, 20. Sgt.-Maj. (res.) Benyamin Asulin, 28, was from Haifa; and St.-Sgt. Moshe Shmuel Noll, 21, from Beit Shemesh.
https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/defense-news/article-860387
At the funeral of Moshe Noll, Rabbi David Noll, his father said: “I thank Hashem for nearly 22 years of joy with Moishy.” There are no words in the face of such faith, except to pray that we might be worthy of this sacrifice.
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Yesterday (Wednesday) there was the news that Abraham Azulay, 25, a resident of the Shaked Farm in the Yitzhar hills, was killed while working with engineering machinery in the Gaza Strip.
He had been married only three months.
I saw the picture of him on his wedding day, with his bride. I saw their faces radiant with joy, and I wept.
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/411412
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We can honor these deaths only by seeing through what they fought and died for.
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Prime Minister Netanyahu has certainly been saying regularly and consistently that he intends to see through the major goals of the war in Gaza – to bring home all of the hostages, to remove Hamas from rule in Gaza, and to ensure that Hamas will never again have the ability to attack Israel.
I have never doubted his sincerity in seeking these goals. What I have begun to be concerned with of late was the feasibility of actually achieving all of this.
The leaders of Hamas are utterly evil, but they are not stupid. They knew what they were doing when they took Israelis hostage, holding them as bargaining chips. Because of their value to Hamas, they will not let them all go.
I have read over and over again about the need to take control of 75% of Gaza. My latest information is that we now control somewhere between 65% and 75%. But why not aim for 80% or 95%? Because, according to one line of reasoning, there are areas where we fear hostages may be held and we hesitate to move in lest they be murdered.
We’ve been hitting very hard and making gains. But how then do we achieve the final defeat of Hamas?
What we have been doing of late, in line with the plans of Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir, is to enter hostile neighborhoods, dismantle Hamas cells, and then withdraw, returning as necessary.
However, Lt. Col. (res.) Maurice Hirsch, senior researcher at the Israel Defense and Security Forum (IDSF), pictured, says unequivocally: “That’s not how you fight a war, and this is not how you defeat terrorism.”
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An alternative is to completely take Gaza militarily. This is what Defense Minister Yisrael Katz advocates: “the only path to decisive victory and the secure return of our hostages is the full conquest of the Gaza Strip, a complete halt to so‑called ‘humanitarian aid.’” Hirsch agrees: “Any solution that doesn’t end with the complete obliteration of Hamas and that allows them to regroup and to regain control in Gaza is a bad solution for Israel.”
https://www.jns.org/the-wars-endgame-inside-the-debate-over-gazas-future/
What happens to the hostages under these circumstances is not clear. The stated goal would be to coerce their release instead of bargaining for it. Could we secure full release? Or would the consummately evil Hamas kill the remaining hostages?
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We are now engaged in an intensive negotiation for a ceasefire with Hamas that would presumably bring the release of 10 live hostages and 18 deceased over the course of 60 days.
I have already written extensively expressing my concern about the terms of this deal. We would not secure release of all hostages and might seal the fate of those left behind.
We would have to withdraw from portions of Gaza, thereby allowing Hamas to regroup and plant explosives in areas to which we would return. What would the cost to our troops be?
We would also apparently agree to allow increased movement of “humanitarian aid” into areas from which we would withdraw. That aid, primarily food and medications, would give Hamas an opportunity to strengthen.
It feels like insanity. Perhaps because it is insanity. Many think so.
Gabi Siboni, CEO of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS), calls it “catastrophic.” He warns that the deal “will weaken our military position and force us to delay critical operations to remove the Hamas strongholds in North Gaza.”
Hirsh says, “We’ve cornered ourselves into a reality where we believe that the only way to get hostages out is to trade them for terrorists and let the terrorists set their demands.” (I have just read that Netanyahu has informed the families of hostages that Hamas would decide who gets released.)
What I see as the most powerful – and painful – assessment of the situation comes from Martin Sherman, CEO of the Israel Institute for Strategic Studies:
“The issue with the hostages is a heart-wrenching situation…but running a country is a strategic exercise, not a humanitarian exercise, and we can’t mortgage our future and the success of this war for the sake of what in the end comes down to a clear appeal to emotion over reason.”
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The likelihood of a ceasefire deal being finalized seems to be increasing, as Israel has made concessions, e.g., regarding the areas from which the IDF would withdraw – although we have not agreed to all that was demanded.
These concessions are presumably in the interest of getting out some hostages.
But there are rumors afloat indicating that Trump, eager for the Nobel Peace Prize, is coercing Netanyahu into making concessions that are not in Israel’s best interest.
The main sticking point is what happens at the end of the 60-day ceasefire. One of the reports suggests that Witkoff, Trump’s envoy, has assured the mediators that Trump ”does not intend to allow Jerusalem to resume fighting against Hamas in Gaza following a 60-day ceasefire, even if this is not explicitly included in the text of a deal being hashed out in Washington and Qatar.”
Reportedly, this information is from “an Arab diplomat and a second source familiar with the matter.”
This is generating considerable alarm. But these are still rumors, not confirmed verifiable facts, and we are ill-advised to take them as facts.
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I close here, then, with a video statement from Netanyahu yesterday, following two intense meetings with Trump, in which he refutes these rumors. There is no pressure from Trump, he says. There is close coordination.
Let us pray.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0j_xqRaBBVU
Once again, stay tuned.
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I ask for prayers for all of Am Yisrael.
Pray for the wisdom and courage of our leaders.
Pray for the safety of our soldiers as they fight.
Pray for the recovery of all hostages.
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©Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by independent journalist Arlene Kushner. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution.
