We had been waiting for it for weeks: the Israeli retaliation for the Iranian attack on Israel on October 1 (a day before Rosh Hashana), allegedly carried out because Israel had taken out Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh while he was in Tehran as a guest of the mullahs. Some 180 ballistic missiles were launched at Israel. Most were intercepted, with assistance from the US and small number of other countries (the UK, France and Jordan); there were no casualties and damage to infrastructure was minor.
That we would respond to this was a given, a necessity. While we here in Israel waited over the course of almost a month for that retaliatory counterattack, there was much speculation as to what form it would take. For a period of time there was considerable talk about hitting Iranian oil fields or refineries, thus seriously crippling the Iranian economy, or hitting Iran’s nuclear development sites. There were analysts who advocated action to begin the process of taking down Iran, rather than weakening it.
During that time of waiting, however, there was international pressure – most extensively from the Biden administration – urging that there not be a major escalation in the fighting that would lead to all-out war.
A further complication was an exceedingly unfortunate leak, apparently from someone at the Pentagon regarding our plans. This seemed to have slowed matters down, as plans had to be reworked (although now Israel is saying the attack plans had not changed).
The attack came, at last, in the early morning hours this past Saturday, October 26, according to specifications approved by the Security Cabinet. It was supervised from a bunker below the Kirya – IDF headquarters in Tel Aviv. IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Hezi Halevi commanded the operation alongside IAF Commander Maj. Gen. Tomer Bar.
In the end, we did not hit oil fields or refineries, or nuclear development sites. And, while the attack was considerable, it was not an attempt to bring down the Iranian regime, so much as to cripple it.
What we attacked were military sites. But the attacks did substantial, indeed major, damage. And we managed with no losses. Our planes returned intact.
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There may have been several reasons why the decision was made to limit the attack to military sites. Joe Biden is most likely a major one. We are still in combat with Hamas, which is close to defeat, and Hezbollah, which continues to rain down on our north barrages of rockets. We cannot afford to have the US cut off the supply of munitions at this time. What is more, we would require the assistance of the US in repelling a further attack by Iran, should it take place.
But it also may have been the considered opinion of our leaders that opening another front when we have work yet to do in Gaza and Lebanon would not be the most advantageous path to follow – although there are analysts who point out that the defeat of Iran, which supports Hamas and Hezbollah, would finish these proxies. All speculation, my friends. I am not privy to the inner workings of the Security Cabinet, which is exactly as it should be.
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Let us then take a look at what Israel accomplished on Saturday.
We begin with the fact that over 100 planes, including F-35 “Adir” stealth fighters, traveled some 2,000 kilometers (roughly 1,243 miles) to reach Iran.
Because of the distance, and the fact that heavy munitions were being carried, significant refueling capabilities in the air were required. We have now demonstrated to the Iranians that we can do this, and that they are within reach.
The first thing we took out, on the way to Iran, were radar installations in Syria positioned to pick up an attack on Iran that is on the way. In this sense, Iran was “blinded.” Radar and air defense systems within Iran itself were then attacked. Among the air defense systems taken out were S-300s, which had been supplied by Russia.
According to an Israeli official, if Iran does decide to attack again, ” Israel now has an increased “range of freedom of movement in the Iranian skies.”
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We then moved to attacks on military sites in Tehran and Karaj, a city nearby. These attacks, which were executed in three waves, seriously compromise Iranian military capabilities and hinder Iran’s ability to further attack Israel.
At least three Revolutionary Guard bases in Tehran were attacked. In addition, the base in Parchin, some 18 miles from Tehran, was hit by drones. At this site, which was supposed to be “secret,” Israel destroyed three ballistic missile solid fuel mixing buildings. Two similar fuel mixing facilities were hit elsewhere – somewhere between 12 and 20 mixers in all were taken out.
This is a major accomplishment as solid fuel is utilized in ballistic missiles. Solid fuel was utilized in the ballistic missiles launched at Israel and is in the missiles Iran provides to its proxies such as Hezbollah.
The equipment for mixing sold fuel is difficult to make (some sources say Iran cannot make it), and Iran had imported it from China at great expense. It will not be easy for the Iranians to replace these destroyed mixers. This means that Iran is not in a position to replenish its storehouse of ballistic missiles. Estimates are that it will likely take the Iranians two years to replace the destroyed mixers – if at all they can.
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In addition to the buildings for mixing solid fuel, Parchin was the site of Iran’s suicide drone technology programs. Significantly, several buildings there were also used previously for testing in a nuclear weapons development program. While Iran is said to no longer be using this site for nuclear development, there are allegations that “scientists at Parchin have been working on developing a nuclear warhead and other nuclear weapons technologies.”
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Publicly, Iran is, of course, making light of our attack. But there are indications that officials are panicked by the damage Israel has done. The Islamic state is in a far more vulnerable position.
“Iranian officials told The New York Times that the Israeli strikes have caused serious concern that the country is now exposed to future Israeli attacks, with sources in Iran and Israel telling the Times that Israel destroyed air defense systems protecting the country’s oil, gas and petrochemical facilities.”
https://www.jns.org/iran-said-fearful-after-israel-hits-missile-program-air-defenses/
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Will the Iranians retaliate once again?
It’s possible but seems quite unlikely. It would be the height of foolishness, for Israel has let it be known that if Iran launches more missiles at us (thereby depleting their stockpile of missiles that cannot readily be replenished), we will hit them far harder than we have to date.
Should Iran hit, the US, which is satisfied with the nature of the attack we launched on purely military targets, is ready and prepared to aid in our defense. The US was notified some hours before the attack began, and Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin maintained communication throughout the operation.
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Analyst Yaakov Lappin says that “Israel appears to be playing a longer game, seeking to degrade Iran’s immediate military threat while leaving room for future strikes…
“The immediate tactical question following the operation is whether Israel’s strikes have sufficiently degraded Iran’s missile and air defense capabilities to influence future engagements…
“The key strategic question now is whether Israel anticipates a ‘Stage B.’ While the recent strikes achieved tactical gains, Israel’s decision not to engage Iran’s nuclear facilities suggests that a future attack might hinge on Iran’s response or any perceived shift by Iran to break out to a nuclear bomb.
“If the recent strike has indeed undermined Iran’s air defenses and missile capabilities, Israel might find a second wave—targeting more sensitive or strategically crucial sites—logistically simpler.
“Yet Iran’s nuclear advancements continue.”
https://www.jns.org/irans-missile-program-set-back-but-nuclear-threat-remains/
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There are critics of our attack on Iran who maintain that we should have hit harder, no matter the considerations. How many chances will we get? They ask.
But I would like to provide this perspective, from Zvika Klein, JPost editor (emphasis added):
“Saturday’s strike was not just a threat; it was a promise that reached the heart of Tehran…
“As dawn broke over Tehran on Saturday, it wasn’t the usual hum of a busy city greeting the morning.
“Instead, the reverberations of precision strikes echoed across Iran’s strategic landscape. You could almost picture the startled faces behind closed doors in Iran’s power centers, scrambling to understand how Israel managed to pull off an operation so audacious, so brazen, and, yet, so meticulously calculated.
“For more than three hours, Israel struck with unprecedented precision, unmasking a simple truth: Tehran, for all its bluster, isn’t untouchable.
“You can almost feel the tectonic plates shifting under Iran’s feet, as the ‘regional power’ finds itself reeling, looking a lot less like the force it projects to the world and a lot more like Hezbollah, scrambling to avoid the light…
“Imagine the dilemma for Iran’s leadership – retaliate and risk a spiral that might burn everything it’s built, or stay silent and let Israel’s quiet triumph ring louder.”
https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-826128
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Today marks the first National Day of Mourning for those who fell during the massacre on October 7 and all those soldiers, security officers and police who have fallen in the war which followed.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, President Isaac Herzog and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant led a memorial ceremony at Mt. Herzl. At the Kotel, the flag was lowered to half-mast and Kotel Rabbi Shmuel Rabinovitch prayed:
“God, full of compassion, dwelling on high, grant proper rest under the shelter of the Divine Presence, in the heights of the holy, pure, and heroic ones who shine like the brightness of the firmament, to the souls of the holy martyrs, Israeli citizens — men, women, and children — who were killed, murdered, burned, and massacred by Hamas terrorists, and who sanctified God’s name in the cruel attack on the settlements of the State of Israel…
“And to the souls of the soldiers of the Israel Defense Forces, the police officers of Israel, and the members of the security forces who sacrificed their lives for the sanctity of God’s name and fell heroically in the battles to defend the people and the land.
“In their merit, we pray for the elevation of their souls; may their resting place be in the Garden of Eden. May the Merciful One shelter them in the shadow of His wings for eternity and bind their souls in the bond of life. The Lord is their heritage; may they rest in peace in their resting places…”
Our soldiers continue to die, my friends, almost daily. It pierces the heart. They go to fight knowing what may happen and understanding what they must do.
https://worldisraelnews.com/4-idf-reservists-killed-14-wounded-in-battle-with-hezbollah-terrorists/
We have lost 769 soldiers and 76 police officers and security agents.
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We have injuries and deaths as well because of terror attacks. I have not followed these attacks in my postings as I once did because the wider war takes precedence. But the terror attacks are a part of the war, as well.
This morning (Sunday) there was a particularly ugly major attack perpetrated by an Israeli Arab who was a resident of the Arab city of Qalansawe in central Israel. The terrorist drove a truck into a crowd of people – pensioners, seniors! – who had just disembarked from a bus and were headed for a visit to a local museum. Some people were caught under the bus.
Over 30 people – possibly as many as 50 — have been transferred to hospitals, some in serious condition. One victim succumbed to his injuries after being taken to the hospital.
The terrorist was eliminated. Some reports refer to a “possible” terror attack. But there was no doubt about it in the end.
https://worldisraelnews.com/dozens-injured-as-terrorist-runs-down-pedestrians-in-central-israel/
See pictures here:
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/398143
Authorities are speculating as to whether this attack was motivated by our National Day of Mourning. Think about this…
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I always call for prayer at the end of my posting, and it continues to be especially pertinent at this time.
Express great gratitude to the Almighty for what we have been able to achieve.
Then, please, pray with a full heart for the continued strength and courage of Israel’s leaders as they make the hard decisions, for the safety and effectiveness of our soldiers in battle as they fight a righteous war, and for the rescue of the hostages at last.
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©Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by independent journalist Arlene Kushner. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution.
