As most of you are likely aware, on Friday Joe Biden made an announcement about a three-part “plan” – which he attributed to Israel – to end the war in Gaza.
There is so much confusion about this “plan,” so much in Biden’s announcement that lends the wrong impression, that I want to lead with this subject.
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The plan is being widely touted as an “Israeli proposal,” while the fact of the matter is that it draws on certain elements Israel had put forth, but was put together by Egypt and Qatar, neither of which we have reason to trust.
One statement of Biden’s makes it clear what his motive in promoting this is:
“It’s time for this war to end, and for the day after to begin.”
That has been his goal right along, has it not?
“For the past several months, my negotiators, of the foreign policy, intelligence community and the like, have been relentlessly focused, not just on a ceasefire that would inevitably be fragile and temporary, but on a durable end of the war. That’s been the focus—a durable end to this war.” (Emphasis added)
https://www.jns.org/its-time-for-this-war-to-end-biden-says-laying-out-israeli-ceasefire-proposal/
Biden claims that Hamas has been sufficiently degraded so that it can no longer carry out an attack such as that of October 7, and apparently this is enough for him. The plan he is advancing involves neither the defeat of Hamas nor its surrender.
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In broad terms, the plan involves three stages. In the first, a “humanitarian phase,” there would be a complete ceasefire, lasting roughly six weeks, with the IDF withdrawing from all populated areas of Gaza and humanitarian aid increased. Some of the hostages – elderly, women, wounded – would be released in exchange for the release of some hundreds of security prisoners. One source I encountered reported that Israel asked, via intermediaries, for 33 live hostages within these parameters and Hamas – lacking access to 33 live individuals fitting those descriptions – suggested some live hostages and some bodies.
During this first stage, negotiations would be held for stage two. This would be a total departure for Israel. If negotiations took longer than six weeks, the ceasefire would continue.
In the second stage, there would be a permanent ceasefire and the withdrawal of the IDF from Gaza. The remaining hostages and bodies of hostages would be released.
The third stage involves rebuilding of Gaza.
According to The Jewish Press, “Also during his remarks Biden implied that Israel’s agreement with Hamas would include acceptance of a Palestinian Authority terrorist state on its borders in exchange for normalization with Saudi Arabia.”
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Israel is apparently ready to consider stage one, in order to bring out hostages, but Israel officials have made it clear that continuing the ceasefire longer than six weeks [in order to allow time for stage two negotiations] would not be acceptable. This could drag on indefinitely. Any negotiating after the six weeks would be done while fighting had resumed. What is more, Israel would be prepared to resume fighting even sooner if Hamas reneged on understandings, perhaps by delivering fewer than the agreed upon number of hostages. This is exactly what happened last time there was a ceasefire in exchange for hostages: Hamas did not deliver as promised.
An additional problem: if the IDF were to withdraw from all populated areas for six weeks, this would give Hamas – which has been seriously degraded but not taken down – would have an opportunity to regroup in those areas.
What is clear is that the Biden plan is not what Israel had put forth quietly in preliminary negotiations.
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The response to Biden’s proposal from the Prime Minister’s Office:
“Under the proposal [as put forth by Israel], Israel will continue to insist these conditions [including the destruction of Hamas’s military and governing capabilities] are met before a permanent ceasefire is put in place. The notion that Israel will agree to a permanent ceasefire before these conditions are fulfilled is a non-starter.
“Israel’s conditions for ending the war have not changed: The destruction of Hamas military and governing capabilities, the freeing of all hostages and ensuring that Gaza no longer poses a threat to Israel.”
I want to make it absolutely clear: the fact that, as Biden stated, today Hamas would not be able to carry out an October 7 attack does not mean that the point has yet been reached at which Hamas no longer poses any threat to Israel.
It does not mean that Hamas cannot build itself up again or otherwise cause damage to Israel via rockets, etc., if Israel were to fully withdraw now without completing its military goals.
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And there is more: Israel’s intention is to maintain a security force in Gaza for some extended period after the cessation of the active war. Biden’s plan, which requires full IDF withdrawal, would preclude this. He is playing to what Hamas wants.
Hamas has made it clear: That’s all they want to talk about, a permanent ceasefire.
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Biden’s announcement represents a betrayal of Israel in several respects. In addition to the above, I mention two others.
First, he went public with something that Israel, considering the sensitivity of the issues, wanted negotiated quietly. It seems clear that there was hope on the Israeli side, most likely unrealistic, for a temporary ceasefire for some weeks to bring out women, etc. I say unrealistic because Hamas doesn’t want a temporary ceasefire, only one that segues into a permanent one. Premature public exposure of what is being negotiated complicates issues. Biden has demonstrated once again that Israel cannot trust him.
And then, he appealed directly to leftist elements within Israel [those who have been out on the street demanding an end to the war to secure hostages]:
“Through it all, though, the United States has worked relentlessly to support Israelis’ security, to get humanitarian supplies into Gaza, and to get a ceasefire and a hostage deal to bring this war to an end.
“Yesterday, with this new initiative, we’ve taken an important step in that direction.
“And I want to level with you today as to where we are and what might be possible. But I need your help. Everyone who wants peace now must raise their voices and let the leaders know they should take this deal; work to make it real, make it lasting; and forge a better future out of the tragic terror attack and war.” (Emphasis added)
This is a sort of internal meddling that is infuriating and despicable.
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A clear and solid majority of Israelis supports continuing the war until Hamas is truly vanquished. Here I specifically want to mention the Gevurah Forum, which represents bereaved families who have lost soldiers in the fighting. Their position is that their soldiers will have died in vain if the war is stopped without a clear victory.
Today they sent a letter to Prime Minister Netanyahu expressing their concerns in light of media reports on the Biden proposal (Emphasis added):
“We, the members of the Gevurah Forum’s management, are addressing you as representatives of hundreds of families of the fallen in the Swords of Iron war. Our loved ones went to battle and did not return. They went to battle with a deep sense of mission, for all the citizens of Israel, with a clear goal – Israel’s victory. The goals of the war, in which we are in the midst, were well defined by the Prime Minister and the cabinet members – the destruction of the Hamas terrorist organization, the return of all the hostages, and ensuring there is no threat to the citizens of Israel from the Gaza Strip, in one word – victory.”
“This victory is supported by an overwhelming majority of the people. The ‘Victory Block’ in the Knesset comprises over 80% of the members of the Zionist and nationalist parties. This is a clear and decisive statement of what the people’s will is. The government in Israel has only one mandate – victory…”
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/390935
This was sent urgently because there is concern on the part of the Forum, spurred by certain media reports, that Netanyahu might cave.
Gevorah means heroism.
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Additionally, I will mention here, as I have before, the Forum Tikva – an organization of relatives of hostages who do not want to see Israel’s security compromised in order to bring back the hostages.
Co-founder Tzvika Mor is on record as saying: “We have to finish this war. We cannot let Hamas rise again in Gaza and because of that we must win.”
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Our successes in Rafah has been stunning in recent days:
Just hours after I put out my last posting, reporting that we were in control of 75% of the Philadelphi Corridor, IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari announced that we now controlled the entire corridor, an area 8.7 miles long along the border between the Sinai and Gaza. This achievement, in an operation led by the IDF’s 162nd Division, came quickly and we now can block smuggling of weapons from the Sinai.
Consider, please, what might happen if Israel reached a deal to pull out of Gaza completely in exchange for securing hostages.
As matters stand now, Hamas no longer has access to a “replenishment” of weaponry; it is limited to its finite caches of weapons inside of Gaza – much of it within tunnels. Additional work needs to be done to locate these caches, destroy the weapons, and take out launching sites.
So far, 20 tunnels have been discovered under the corridor. According to IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari, the entrance shaft to the infrastructure of one tunnel was located about 100 meters from the Rafah Crossing [with Egypt].
“The route branched into several sub-routes and was used by Hamas terrorists for movement, transferring weapons and initiating terrorist attacks. Inside the route, we found large quantities of weapons, including anti-tank missiles, AK-47s, explosives and grenades.” The forces also found dozens of ready-to-fire rocket launchers and launch pits.
https://www.jns.org/idf-in-control-of-philadelphi-corridor-20-tunnels-found/
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A significant IDF goal remaining in Rafah is the operation to take out four Hamas battalions entrenched there. While most Hamas battalions have been degraded, these four military units are still intact. If Israel were to enter a ceasefire with Hamas very soon, these battalions, still capable of inflicting damage, would remain standing. These battalions must not be permitted to regroup.
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I am not suggesting that this is something that the IDF might not be able to do. Not at all, but merely that more time is needed to finish the job.
In point of fact, we are operating more slowly in Rafah than had been our intention so as to avoid incurring retaliation from Biden that might involve actions on his part such withholding of aid.
This said, we are doing superbly (emphasis added):
“According to a newly published report authored by U.S. military legal experts and former commanders, the Israel Defense Forces has conducted its war against Hamas in Gaza ‘effectively and legally.’”
The report, published on Thursday by the Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA), is based on primary-source research and extensive discussions with senior Israeli officials during a fact-finding visit to the country.
According to the report, Israel’s efforts to eliminate the Hamas threat are grounded in its right and responsibility to restore security for its citizens.
Stated one of the report’s authors, Gen. (ret.) Charles Wald, former deputy commander of U.S. European Command, “The barbaric October 7 attack was just one part of the multi-front threat that Israel faces from Iran and its proxies. In defending itself against this threat, Israel is justified in seeking to eliminate Hamas’s ability to ever attack it again.”
The report notes the ability of IDF to integrate air power, indirect fire (artillery) and ground forces in maneuvers both above and below ground, and the level of support the Israeli Air Force is able to provide for ground units, both in terms of direct support and via intelligence-gathering.
“The IDF’s performance on Gaza’s complicated battlefield demonstrates operational and tactical excellence,” the authors stated.
https://worldisraelnews.com/idf-exemplifies-tactical-operational-excellence-in-gaza/
We have every reason to hold our heads high, proud as proud can be of our exceptional fighting forces. And we have every obligation to support them.
What they want is to continue.
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I have a theory. It is born of a gut feeling and extensive observation. (Not to be cited as authoritative.) The Biden administration had warned again and again that if the IDF entered Rafah, it would be a total disaster. The Americans tried every which way to dissuade us. Dissuading us would have prevented us from taking the Philadelphi Corridor and stopping weapons smuggling, and from going after the four Hamas battalions.
But we were not dissuaded, although we ended up considering it prudent to move more slowly. And we are doing superbly.
Last Wednesday, White House National Security Council communications advisor John Kirby made a statement regarding the new “plan”:
“Our view and our opinion is we got to get this hostage deal now. The time is now to do it, to get that temporary ceasefire, and to end this conflict as soon as possible.”
https://www.jns.org/kirby-we-got-to-get-this-hostage-deal-now/
Why as soon as possible?
Might it be that we are too successful, coming too close to finishing Hamas, so that we have to be stopped? Might it be (there is evidence to bolster this supposition) that while Biden would see Hamas weakened, he would rather it were not taken down?
I will not visit here speculation as to why this might be so. I only know that repeatedly the Biden administration, while professing horror at the massacre on October 7, has gotten in our way.
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And so, I call on everyone who gets it to bolster our prime minister and let him know that you believe it essential to move forward.
Tell him chazak, chazak – be strong, be strong.
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Keep praying to Heaven for Israel. Pray that the tears might be lifted from our hearts.
Pray for the strength and wisdom of our leaders, for the safety of our soldiers, and for the rescue of our hostages.
Pray in a spirit of hope.
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©Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by independent journalist Arlene Kushner. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution.
