These last several days have not been easy here in Israel. Not remotely. The center (Tel Aviv and environs) and the north have been hit with one missile barrage after another, some launched by Iran and others by Hezbollah. Sometimes southern communities – primarily Arad, Dimona, Be’ersheva – are targeted as well.
There have been injuries; an 11-year-old girl was critically wounded last Wednesday. Over this past weekend, some 100 people were hurt, thankfully most only lightly. Yesterday (Sunday) a hit in Haifa wounded nine people – an elderly man was moderately injured, and the rest, including a baby, lightly injured. Four bodies have been recovered from the rubble after an 18-hour search. It seems the missile that hit in Haifa had broken apart in mid-air, which is why it was not successfully intercepted.
The death toll to date is 23; more than 138 remain hospitalized out of close to 7,000 people who have been evacuated to hospitals at one point or another.
https://www.jns.org/news/israel-news/over-100-wounded-by-iranian-hezbollah-weekend-barrage
Since the beginning of the war, Iran has fired more than 600 missiles and 760 drones into Israel – not counting what Hezbollah has launched.
In addition to the casualties, there is sometimes damage to infrastructure.
A building hit in Tel Aviv:
As I have indicated previously, our system for intercepting missiles and drones is good but not perfect; what is more, the utilization by Iran of cluster missiles increases the possibility of causing injury or damage.
Over 10,000 people have found themselves unable to return to their homes immediately after an attack. Of these, some 7,000 have been unable to return to their homes for an extended period and many will require permanent or semi-permanent housing solutions.
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With it all, there is a nerve-wracking disruption of normal life: sirens signaling the need to move speedily to a safe place are heard frequently in certain parts of the country. An associate of mine, who was in Herzliya, north of Tel Aviv, on the eve of Pesach, told me there were eight sirens before the seder had even begun.
There is, as well, an increased sense of loneliness because people are reluctant to venture too far from home.
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We Israelis are weary and tense; how could we be otherwise? But in the main we continue to remain stalwart. There have been a handful of small left-wing anti-war protests in Tel Aviv, Haifa and Be’ersheva. More broadly, we aren’t seeing opposition to the war but rather a need to understand why it is taking so long for American and Israeli forces combined to defeat Iran. That is the very pertinent question I seek to address here.
I don’t believe we can do justice to this issue simply by considering the present situation: Iran did not acquire its current arsenal in the course of a year or two. We are looking at serious negligence and worse on the part of the international community over the course many years – a negligence that has allowed the regime to strength itself militarily.
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After the Islamic Revolution in 1979, the Western world was aware that the new Islamist regime embraced a dangerous ideology.
Ayatollah Ruhallah Khomeini, who led the Revolution:
But insufficient attention was paid to this state of affairs, and I suspect many looked the other way rather than grapple with the broader implications of that ideology.
Iran began acquiring a large arsenal of missiles during the Iran-Iraq war (1980 -88). The regime began by importing (from Libya and N. Korea) and then began producing their own (with guidance from N. Korea, China and Russia).
By 2012, Iran had one of the largest inventories of missiles in the Middle East.
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In 1968, when the Shah still reigned, Iran had signed the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) as a non-nuclear weapons state, agreeing not to seek such weapons in the future. After the Islamic Revolution in 1979, the new regime began secret work on developing nuclear weapons. The war with Iraq served as an impetus for this development, which was ultimately exposed.
Sanctions were applied to Iran in a number of different situations in an attempt to modify its behavior. This was not just with regard to nuclear development – which was a primary concern – but also issues such as the support of terrorist groups and ballistic missile development. What we can see, then, is that what are dealing with today is hardly new: attempts to confront Iran’s behavior were inadequate.
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Then president Barack Obama concluded (or so we were told) that a deal with Iran would be more effective than sanctions. Negotiations began in 2013, between Iran and the five permanent members of the Security Council – the US, the UK, China, France, and Russia – plus Germany. The final plan, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was implemented in January 2016. Iran agreed to constrain its nuclear program. In return nuclear development related sanctions were to be lifted.
I will add here that requests were made of Obama that he insist on including in the agreement a stipulation that Iran would no longer be allowed to support its terrorist proxies. He refused to include that demand.
As a journalist, I tracked the negotiations and found that Obama permitted concession after concession to Iran (and often lied about them to the American people). Frequently I was forced to wonder which side he was on.
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But nothing rivals this specific obscene action by Obama:
In September of 2016, the Obama administration acknowledged that Obama had transferred 1.7 billion dollars (this is not a typo) to Iran in cash, using non-US currencies, were transferred on pallets.
Excuses were offered as to why this had to be done: “A Treasury spokeswoman says the cash payments were necessary because of the ‘effectiveness of U.S. and international sanctions,’ which isolated Iran from the international finance system.”
How many missiles were developed and built with these funds? How much assistance was provided to the proxies?
It is my opinion that Obama betrayed his nation, as well as Israel – which was supposed to be American’s ally but which he did not treat like one, and the Western world more broadly.
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In any event, the deal itself was a horror on several scores. Most significantly, it contained a “sunset clause”: At year eight of the deal, restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program would begin to “sunset,” allowing Iran to steadily industrialize its uranium enrichment program. By year 15, all restrictions would expire, bringing Iran to the brink of nuclear breakout. The JCPOA gave Iran a clear road to the bomb, somewhat delayed.
Of course, while the involvement of Obama was key, he did not move the JCPOA to finalization on his own. The other five nations involved, all of whom clearly had to know about the sunset clause, signed on. There is enough culpability to go around.
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Enter Donald Trump, who began his first term as president in January 2017, just a year after the JCPOA was initiated. By 2018, under his leadership, the US had pulled out of the agreement.
And here a word about President Trump. My readers know that I am frequently frustrated by him – by his mixed messages, his egoism, his over-the-top behavior. But, boy, when he is right he is right. And with regard to the JCPOA – which he referred to as “one of the worst and most one-sided transactions the United States has ever entered into” – he “got it” with extraordinary clarity.
See his full comments on the matter here:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-41617488
“…My fellow Americans: As President of the United States, my highest obligation is to ensure the safety and security of the American people.
“History has shown that the longer we ignore a threat, the more dangerous that threat becomes. For this reason, upon taking office, I’ve ordered a complete strategic review of our policy toward the rogue regime in Iran. That review is now complete.
“Today, I am announcing our strategy, along with several major steps we are taking to confront the Iranian regime’s hostile actions and to ensure that Iran never, and I mean never, acquires a nuclear weapon…”
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Having perceived how bad the deal was, he was determined to act. In addition to pulling out, he sought to reinstate sanctions on Iran. Here he ran into objections: Under the JCPOA, any of the P5+1 countries could invoke a “snapback” mechanism, which would allow for the automatic reimposition of UN sanctions if Iran was found to be in significant non-compliance with the deal. Trump sought to move in line with this but was advised by United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres that he could not do this because the US was no longer a participant in the deal. Please note that the concern was not with whether indeed Iran was in non-compliance. Would we expect anything else from Guterres?
In any event, Trump did institute sanctions against Iran.
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In February 2021, one month after he had entered the White House, Joe Biden rescinded the sanctions against Iran that Trump had put in place and indicated a desire to rejoin the JCPOA. Thankfully that did not happen, but we see again a desire to implement a policy that actually supported the mullahs.
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If my count is correct, Prime Minister Netanyahu addressed the UN General Assembly at least six times, starting in 2012, on the dangers of Iran.
His words fell on deaf ears, time after time. The fools who represent a host of nations chose symbolic disrespect for the Jewish State, when they might have availed themselves of important information about Iran. Are their nations absented from responsibility to be informed and act on the Iranian threat?
“Spies from Israel’s Mossad agency discovered the top-secret location of a warehouse used to store Iran’s nuclear weapons files, broke into the building, took half a ton of documents and managed to smuggle them back to Israel that same night…
“Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu revealed the daring operation as he displayed the trove of documents in a presentation [in May 2018] aimed at proving that Iran has lied about its covert atomic weapons program.”
Now, I thought, now with these stunning revelations, the world will have to sit up and take notice. The world did not.
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This brings us to 2026. Trump, who understands the threat of Iran, is again president. And, apparently convinced by Netanyahu that the risks were growing, decided it was time to act militarily. In doing so, he forged incredible cooperation with Israel.
Again I find myself astounded by the reluctance of other nations to acknowledge the risks presented by Iran and join us. The leaders of western Europe are cowards and choose to appear oblivious even though Iran has demonstrated an ability to launch missiles that can reach them. Trump was furious when they declined to assist in opening the Strait of Hormuz.
The Gulf states, mindful of “the day after,” should the regime still be standing, have also been reluctant to act militarily as well. And this case is even more surprising, because they – especially the UAE – have been bombarded by Iranian drones and missiles.
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And so, it is the US and Israel, working in tandem and with close communication.
What will be accomplished in the end? I have been reading military analysts who say the regime will not fall. But if Trump follows through on any major part of his threats to Iran, it indeed might. We must not forget that there are some 10,000 US troops in the region.
Tomorrow night is Iran’s deadline for opening the Strait, or all hell is predicted by Trump to break loose. Maybe, and maybe he will extend the deadline again.
What seems clear is that the regime is hardening, not weakening. There is significant thought that the country is now being run by the Guards, which makes it even more intransigent. All suggestions by “mediators” (Turkey, Pakistan) that there might be a temporary ceasefire were quickly rejected by the regime, and I am glad of this. This is not the time to stop hitting them so that they can garner strength. Apparently Netanyahu warned Trump against a ceasefire.
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I will table further discussion until there is a bit more clarity. For there is no end of matters yet to discuss: How much weaponry Iran still possesses, what might bring the regime down, and more.
Trump has just told Bibi that: “Israel would have been destroyed if 2015 nuclear deal remained.” And now he says: “The US has a plan to destroy every bridge and power plant in Iran by midnight tomorrow if there is no deal [on the Strait].”
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We will hold out, because we know we must.
Tomorrow night begins the last day of Pesach – the seventh day, which is again a Chag. I wish all who are celebrating a Chag Sameach.
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I ask, as I always do, that you please pray.
©Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by independent journalist Arlene Kushner. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution.
