As my readers surely know, Israel has now begun a ceasefire deal with Hamas with the aim of bringing out at least some of the hostages held by Hamas since October 7, 2023.
Before I describe the parameters of this agreement, I want to take a look at how we got here.
I have already described the pressure brought to bear on Prime Minister Netanyahu by Trump’s Middle East Envoy Steve Witkoff, who, as it turns out, has connections with the terror-supporting Qatar and is not an honest broker.
https://arlenefromisrael.info/the-fury-mounts/
Just over a week ago, Bibi made concessions that had been unacceptable to him not long before. I have no information about any promises offered by Witkoff to make it more attractive for him to agree to the deal. It seems to have been a case of strong-arming.
And so, we are left with two questions. Why was this so important to Trump, and why did Netanyahu go along?
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Let us start with Trump.
It is hardly a secret that his ego is oversized and that he likes matters to go his way. As I have studied the situation, what seems to me – and I am hardly alone in this thinking – is that it wasn’t enough for him to come into office with determination to assist Israel in defeating Hamas going forward. He wanted it to be over just as he was about to be inaugurated, and for it be seen as having ended because of his tough presence. He wanted to begin on a high note, having “brought peace.”
Thus did he make threats to Hamas about “hell to pay.” Those threats didn’t seem to intimidate Hamas, and people wondered exactly what he planned to do once he got in office. But he hadn’t planned anything. The idea was that the situation should be resolved before he took his oath of office. And for this, it was necessary to make certain that Israel agreed to a ceasefire deal, so that he could claim to have brought peace. Enter the strong-arming Witkoff.
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There is a very specific reason why I have concluded all of this, and it goes back to 1981, when Ronald Reagan took office. Four-hundred-and forty-four-days prior, a group of pro-revolution Iranian students had seized the American embassy in Tehran and taken over 50 Americans hostage; Reagan’s predecessor, Jimmy Carter, proved himself incapable of getting those hostages out. But on the day Reagan took his oath of office, they were released.
The image was one of a tough Reagan who followed a weak Carter – a Reagan so tough that the Iranians were afraid of what he might do. This has been referred to as the “Reagan effect.” I am reading now that there may have been some sort of deal Reagan’s people struck with the Iranian students. But it does not matter: That was the image, and it was this very image that Trump sought to emulate.
It is not an accident, that Trump’s incoming National Security Advisor, Mike Waltz, has spoken about the “Trump Effect.”
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Why did Netanyahu agree?
To have said no to what was proposed would have been very tough, but he might have. Here I speculate on a likely reason that he did not refuse the deal – the very same deal he had refused when it was pushed by Biden. I have no proof of this, and perhaps there were factors that remain hidden, but the reasoning comes together:
Netanyahu has had occasion to deal with Trump’s temperament; he knows that the man holds grudges. Trump cursed him in an interview for having congratulated Biden on becoming president. His ego was so big that he wouldn’t allow for the fact that Netanyahu had to congratulate Biden; it was simply diplomatic protocol.
Now Trump is just beginning another four years in office, and for four years Israel would hope to be able to call upon him – to provide necessary weaponry, for example, or to assist in an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities. It is possible, I will suggest, that Netanyahu thought it prudent not to cross him, anger him, at the beginning of his new term of office. This may have been a very tough calculus for our prime minister, but something he decided – rightly or wrongly – was the proper way to play it.
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And so, let us look at the deal. (I find it necessary to mention here, as I often do, that there are media versions that differ somewhat, so that I cannot be absolutely certain that what I describe is totally accurate in all details.)
The deal was approved by the government late Friday, 24 approved, 8 opposed. Itamar Ben Gvir and members of his Otzma Yehudit party – who voted against – have since submitted their resignations because they choose not be part of a government that sanctions the deal that has just been passed. Among those voting against were Amichai Chikli and David Amsalem from Likud.
Bezalel Smotrich – who voted against – has said his party will remain in the government as long as he has solid assurances from Netanyahu that we will go back to fighting after the first stage of the ceasefire.
He is staying in the government, he says, out of a sense of national responsibility. “The greatest strategic damage” of the ceasefire lies in the message it sends “that kidnapping Israelis brings the State of Israel to its knees…the only way to repair this damage and turn the deal into a tactical loss in battle rather than a strategic defeat in the war is to return to fighting until Hamas is destroyed.”
I salute him, a man of integrity and clear vision.
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The broad picture:
Hamas is holding some 97 hostages, all but three of whom had been taken on October 7; a solid percentage of these are no longer alive. The ideal – the appropriate move – would be to secure every single hostage, alive and dead; this is not going to happen because as the deal is structured, it would require us to leave Gaza permanently.
This is what Tzvika Mor, father of hostage Eitan Mor, had to say (emphasis added):
“A deal in which we do not receive all the hostages at once, we endanger the absolute majority of them, is a deal in which we lose the achievements of the war…
“Four months ago we received the last sign of life from Eitan. I cannot elaborate. I know that my son is at the bottom of the chain and he will not be released, certainly not at the beginning, I cannot agree to such a deal. Such a deal would bury my son there. For me, the word ‘deal’ is a euphemism for surrendering to a terrorist organization.”
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/392663
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The deal for securing their release is divided into stages. In the first stage, lasting 42 days, counting from today, 33 hostages – roughly one-third of those being held – are supposed to be released, a very few at a time. I will follow with details on this in coming postings, as they are released. Having the releases dragged out suits Hamas, of course, because it increases pressure on Israel to sustain the ceasefire.
“The list includes civilian women, children, female soldiers, men over 50, and men under 50 who are classified as ill or wounded. The identity of the hostages to be released at each stage will be communicated to families 24 hours before their release.”
See their names at bottom here:
https://www.israelhayom.com/2025/01/17/families-announce-names-of-33-hostages-coming-back/
Reports are that only 23 or 24 of the 33 hostages to be released in this stage are alive. This, in my opinion, is already an outrage. Yes, I do understand families want their loved ones’ remains returned so they can be properly buried. And in time that should be. But the priority should be securing the release of those who are still alive – traumatized, malnourished, sick, in some cases raped – in other words, actively suffering now.
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In the course of securing the release of hostages, we are now committed to releasing terrorists from our prisons. This is the aspect of this part of the deal that is most appalling!
In all, over 1,900 terrorists are to be released. This is not a typo: 1,900 terrorists for the release of 33 hostages. The “price” for some hostages is higher than for others – with the greatest number of terrorists to be released for members of the IDF who are released.
Of the Palestinian terrorists to be released in the first stage: 737 are prisoners and administrative detainees—among them killers with blood on their hands—and 1,167 residents of the Gaza Strip not involved in the Oct. 7, 2023, massacre.
https://www.jns.org/israel-hamas-truce-to-begin-sunday-at-830-am/
It is a given, an absolute certainty that some of them will return to terrorism. What this means is that we are securing the lives of some hostages in return for the deaths in the future of other Israelis. There have been admissions on the part of some that this works for them because they do not have the faces of those who have not yet been killed in front of them, while the faces of the hostages are very vivid.
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The Israeli Defense and Justice ministries, IDF, National Insurance Institute and Israel Police have put out a notice indicating that personal notices will be delivered to families of terror attack victims, informing them that the terrorists involved in the murder of their loved ones are expected to be released as part of the hostage return framework approved by the government.
“The notices are designed in part to allow the families to petition to the courts against of the release of the terrorists who harmed their loved ones before they are freed.”
Imagine, if you will the pain and horror endured by families who realize that the monsters who killed their loved ones will be free again.
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In exchange for the three hostages released today (see below), 90 terrorists will be released from prisons in Israel: 78 to Judea & Samaria and 12 to east Jerusalem.
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/402534
This is not acceptable.
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“Palestinian Authority (PA) TV has again expressed the Palestinian position that the deal announced this week to exchange Palestinian terrorists for kidnapped Israeli hostages is a precedent for future hostage-taking and violence — referred to as ‘brave resistance.’
“The Palestinian goal is to eventually obtain the release of all their terrorist murderers of Jewish men, women, and children. They view these murderers as heroes.”
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/402534
Ronen Bar, head of the Shin Bet, said on Friday that “82% of those released in the Gilad Shalit deal in 2011 returned to terrorism,” and 15% carried out attacks themselves or planned the attacks.
https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-838036
Bar explained that the danger is not necessarily from the actual terrorists being released but rather from the atmosphere that will be created. Terror organizations will want to attain additional “achievements.” He cautions that the IDF must increase activities against terrorists and terror infrastructure in Judea & Samaria.
An edict has gone out forbidding Palestinians Arabs from holding celebrations for the release of terrorists arriving in their areas. But there will be celebrations. And they will be bitter for us.
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During this first stage, there will be a shift in deployment of IDF forces in Gaza, although we will not be leaving Gaza. We will be leaving population centers, and there will be reconfiguration of our troop presence in the Philadelphia Corridor, which Netanyahu insists we are not leaving.
The aid allowed into Gaza will be increased, which means more for Hamas to steal.
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I had hoped to discuss the issue of whether it will be possible for us to return to full combat in Gaza, as Smotrich insists we must, and Netanyahu declares we will. This is at the core of the issue right now and I want to provide more focus than is possible here. I will follow with another posting soon.
The bottom line: We must!!
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I close with the good news in the midst of all of the hullabaloo:
Three Israeli hostages were released by Hamas late on Sunday afternoon – after a delay in Hamas declaring their identities – and have been brought home to Israel after 471 days in captivity. From left: Romi Gonen (24), Doron Steinbrecher (31) and Emily Damari (28).
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They were brought first to a reception center, draped in Israeli flags, where they were greeted by their mothers, and had time to change their clothes and collect themselves. They were then taken by helicopter to Sheba Medical Center for full checks and reunion with additional family members. They will be provided with all needed care, physical and psychological. Much attention has been paid to ensuring that returning hostages will have proper care.
See a video of their reunion with family here:
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/402553
A source of joy, may we welcome many more home.
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I ask for prayers for Israel’s wellbeing – for the strength of our leaders and the safety of all Am Yisrael.
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©Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by independent journalist Arlene Kushner. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution.
