On Saturday evening warnings came through here in Israel with regard to an anticipated attack by Hezbollah in the coming days:
“Israeli security officials estimate that Hezbollah is preparing to respond in the coming days to the assassination of Fuad Shukr…
“The response is reportedly coordinated with Iran, which, for now, does not plan to retaliate from its own territory, despite the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.”
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/bykdunwoa
Israelis went to bed that night with enormous unease. There was no clarity as to when that attack might occur or how extensive it might be. We simply knew we had to be prepared and gird ourselves.
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By dawn Sunday morning the story was radically different.
What we now know is that Hezbollah was planning an attack of very serious dimensions: According to analyst Yaakov Lapin, Hezbollah was planning to fire a combination of precision-guided ballistic missiles, UAV swarms and unguided rockets. There were approximately 6,000 projectiles in total according to various reports, to be aimed at the Tel Aviv area and central Israel. The key intended targets were believed to be IDF Intelligence headquarters and Mossad headquarters.
But Israeli intelligence was on top of all of this and so precise that it determined the Hezbollah attack was scheduled to begin at 5 a.m. on Sunday.
Thus, at shortly before that hour, Israel began a preemptive attack of significant proportions that took Hezbollah by surprise. Utilizing 100 fighter jets, we took out thousands of launchers in 40 different launch areas in southern Lebanon. Without launchers, Hezbollah found its plans stymied.
Hezbollah did succeed in launching roughly 250-300 missiles; drones that had been launched were taken down.
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One sailor, Petty Officer First Class David Moshe Ben Shitrit, 21 (pictured), was killed and two other sailors were lightly wounded. They were serving on a patrol boat off the coast of northern Israel.
There is as yet no final determination as to what happened to the sailors. It is believed they may have been hit by shrapnel from an Iron Dome interceptor missile; there was no massive damage to the patrol boat, which would have been the case if there had been a direct hit by a drone.
The structural damage in the north from the missiles was minimal; the city of Acre took a hit on some buildings. No army bases or intelligence headquarters were hit.
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By Sunday afternoon, Hezbollah declared that it was done for the day. Israeli intelligence concurred that this was indeed the case and Homefront Command removed most restrictions.
Whatever response will come next from Hezbollah is not going to come right now. It is assumed that Hezbollah and Iran will be regrouping and planning their next steps. Hezbollah takes its marching orders on this from Iran.
Nasrallah, head of Hezbollah, did not acknowledge the preemptive attack by Israel. He in fact declared that their operation had been a “success”:
“…we achieved and surpassed our objectives. We planned to launch 300 rockets, but we fired 340. We had no intention of using strategic [precision] missiles at this time, but we may deploy them in the future and the near future. None of our precision missiles were hit. The targets struck in Lebanon were in empty valleys or areas evacuated of such missiles.”
https://www.jns.org/nasrallah-we-achieved-and-surpassed-our-objectives/
It is routine for terror groups to claim victory when there was none, and so, Nasrallah’s approach is hardly a surprise. But structuring the situation as a win for Hezbollah serves to mitigate the need to respond again immediately. This round is over, we accomplished what we set out to do.
The Arab world was not fooled however, and resorted to satire, drawing on the fact that Hezbollah reportedly hit an Israeli chicken coop: Nasrallah in one instance was portrayed as a chicken farmer in Hezbollah Fried Chicken.
https://www.israelhayom.com/2024/08/25/hezbollah-fried-chicken-arab-social-media-roasts-nasrallah/
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It is a given that there will be another round in due course, and, as I indicated above, that any attack will likely come from Hezbollah and not Iran. Iran is not eager to take a hit from Israel, which might very well aim for its oil wells, severely undercutting its major source of income.
Lappin cautions that ”it is important to remember that the fundamental threat to Israel’s north remains in place.” We did not take out projectiles, but Hezbollah’s capacity to launch them.
“According to the Alma Research and Education Center, Hezbollah has thousands of precision projectiles, including the Iranian-supplied Fateh 110 missiles that have a range of 350 kilometers and which, if fired from Southern Lebanon, can hit central Israel. Altogether, Hezbollah is believed to possess some 250,000 warheads, 150,000 of which are mortar rounds and 65,000 of which are rockets with ranges of up to 80 kilometers.”
https://www.jns.org/israel-unveils-its-preemptive-capabilities/
Some 60,000 residents of the north, who feel no more secure than they did a week ago, still cannot safely go home and are protesting that the IDF should have gone further.
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What did change with this most recent encounter is that Israel has, as Lappin (pictured) puts it, “unveiled its preemptive capabilities.” Our intelligence is astounding, and Nasrallah knows full well that he and all of his forces are being monitored. What is more, that we are prepared to act preemptively when we determine the danger requires immediate action. This is a shift in the dynamic.
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There is yet one other point to be made in analyzing the situation: Proper defense requires offensive weaponry. In order to prevent an attack on Israel of major proportions, it was necessary to utilize offensive weaponry.
During the course of our war with Hamas, the Biden administration has attempted to structure this false dichotomy. They have been willing to send certain weapons of lesser strength, while insisting on holding back on stronger weapons. But the bottom line is that in order to protect ourselves we require offensive weapons that will take down Hamas.
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Keep praying to Heaven for Israel.
Pray for the safety of all Israel.
Pray for the strength and wisdom of our leaders, for the safety of our soldiers, and for the rescue of our hostages.
Pray in a spirit of hope.
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©Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by independent journalist Arlene Kushner. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution.
