A Sharp Eye and Unwavering Tenacity!!
It has not been my habit to explore the question of what went wrong on October 7 in my posts: The question of how we could have so badly missed the signs. That is because this question is essentially an “in-house” issue (albeit an exceedingly important one) and I address a primarily international audience.
But in the context of what I want to address here, the question is relevant.
It is terribly painful to contemplate how badly off the mark we were:
We were complacent. We did not imagine that it was possible for such a massacre to take place. We believed that the enemy was deterred.
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What is most important at this juncture is making certain that we have learned the lessons.
Complacency can be lethal, as can misplaced trust. We must never let our guard down, and we must be truly prepared – as IDF and government announcements often declare – for any eventuality. Prepared at all times, without exception.
With regard to never letting our guard down, it is appropriate to add a thought advanced by Herb Keinon in today’s JPost (Wednesday). Israel has demonstrated in the past a tendency to ignore behaviors by our enemies that fell below the threshold of what would justify an all-out war. How many times did it happen? Israel and Hamas had entered into a ceasefire following a period of open military conflict. Then a rocket or two rockets or three were launched into Israel from Gaza, killing no one. Or incendiary balloons were launched from Gaza, causing fires in Israel. These acts did not seem to justify a declaration of war, and so Israel would either absorb the blows or react in a low-key manner.
This sent the wrong message to our enemy, a message that encouraged military buildup as there was confidence that Israel would not respond in significant fashion.
“…it became a habit over the years, a way of managing security challenges in the hope of avoiding a larger confrontation. October 7 shattered that illusion. The policy of absorbing provocations and watching a massive military buildup without responding proved catastrophically misguided.” (Emphasis added)
Those days are over. This past Sunday evening, after we had taken out Hezbollah military commander Ali Tabatabai (about whom more in a following post), our Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir told the nation:
“We will not allow threats to develop. There will be no restraint.”
https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/politics-and-diplomacy/article-875194
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I address the issue of lessons learned now because we are at a critical juncture. In a variety of situations, Israel has taken incredible actions against her enemies in the last two years – actions that were militarily successful and actions that were brilliant in their planning. In particular has this been the case with regard to Iran and Hezbollah.
But it would be a huge mistake – one that smacked of complacency – to assume that the weakening of our enemies is permanent. Our enemies are jihadists; their ideology calls for the elimination of Israel, and they exhibit enormous persistence in working towards this goal.
Thus must Israel’s resolve be unremittingly strong.
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The situation with Hamas is particularly troubling and complex. Multiple sources indicate that this terror group is convinced it has won. This is in spite of the enormous damage the IDF has done to them militarily – including taking down their battalions, the destruction of a good percentage of their tunnels, the killing of key Hamas leadership and the seizure of over 50% of Gaza. Should there not have been a ceasefire called in mid-October, it is quite likely we would have won. We were certainly on the way.
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President Trump pushed through his 20-point plan because the fighting in Gaza interfered with his larger plans for the Middle East, but in the process he provided Hamas with a reprieve by halting the war while they were still standing.
We are not privy to all of the pressure that was brought to bear on Prime Minister Netanyahu in order to get him to agree to Trump’s plan. It certainly was made more acceptable because it included a clause on the demilitarization of Gaza and provided for the release of the hostages. Without these provisions, it would be difficult to imagine that Netanyahu would have agreed. Bringing home the hostages was enormously important to most Israelis (and now, seeing the 20 who were brought back alive, it is impossible not to rejoice in their return). But bringing home the hostages was only one stipulated goal, the other arguably more significant one being the defeat of Hamas.
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What Hamas sees is this:
[] They have achieved a heightened diplomatic status thanks to US envoy Steve Witkoff and his sidekick Jared Kushner, who – having not a clue as to what they were actually doing – met face-to-face with Hamas leader Khalil al-Hayya.
But let me qualify this statement. Witkoff and Kushner acted at the behest of Trump. Was he clueless or did he act mindfully in order to advance his developing relationship with pro-Hamas Qatar and Turkey?
[] Leveraging their capture of Israeli hostages, they secured the release from Israeli prisons of a disturbingly large number of terrorists, including some with blood on their hands; now free, they can serve the “cause” going forward.
[] They are still standing and in control of a significant portion of Gaza.
[] They are still armed. One Muslim country after another that Trump has called upon to assist with the demilitarization of Gaza has declined to participate. The Americans won’t do it either.
Israel is eager to move on this, but neither the Americans nor the “neutral” nations such as Qatar, Egypt and Turkey that Trump is working with, are eager to give Israel the go-ahead.
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Hamas has been playing games – breaking the very tenuous ceasefire with action aimed at IDF soldiers and then charging the IDF with breaking the ceasefire when our troops retaliate. And retaliate we do.
A major incident occurred on Saturday when 11 terrorists emerged from a tunnel where they were caught in the Israel-controlled portion of Gaza and were taken down. Subsequently, additional terrorists were arrested.
https://www.jns.org/idf-kills-11-terrorists-emerging-from-rafah-tunnels/
The IDF has been working vigorously to dismantle the network of tunnels in which these terrorists are hidden.
“The Nahal and Golani Brigade have been operating in the Rafah area in recent weeks in a concentrated effort to dismantle the remaining terror tunnels in the area and eliminate the terrorists hiding within them.”
Most recently Hamas has been suggesting it will end the ceasefire – or, according to at least one source, declared the ceasefire already over.
If the ceasefire ended, there would be no action to demilitarize Gaza – the plan would have been terminated.
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I have seen reports (unverified but not implausible) indicating that Trump – or the negotiators – pledged to Hamas that if they released all of the hostages they would not be required to disarm. This might have been the only way to convince Hamas to let the hostages go. And I can imagine (this is my speculation) that Trump might have anticipated that the recovery of the hostages would in the end have been enough for Israel.
It is not enough.
At any rate, here we are, at a stalemate. Witkoff insists that Hamas promised they would disarm. This is quite difficult to believe. (According to one version, Hamas made the promise to Witkoff, in another version, the promise was made to Jared, who relayed it.) In the unlikely event that Hamas did promise this, Witkoff demonstrated incredible naivete if he actually believed it.
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I alluded previously to the idea that has been floated by the US, and seems to be garnering additional interest, that Gaza be divided. Hamas, rather than being disarmed, would be restricted to the west of the yellow line that currently divides the Gaza Strip. In the section that Israel controls to the east (roughly 53%), reconstruction would begin with the involvement of key Arab nations. The civilians of Gaza would move into that area, where there would be opportunities for employment with the reconstruction, and in due course permanent housing.
https://www.jns.org/us-plans-to-put-gazans-on-israeli-side-of-ceasefire-line/
The thought is that ultimately it would be possible for Israel to corner Hamas, which no longer had the protection of large numbers of civilians among which to hide, and take it down. This appears to be one of those ideas that is brought forward out of desperation but would turn out to be a quagmire when actualized.
A concern voiced by former international IDF Spokesperson Lt. Col. (Res.) Jonathan Conricus, interviewed by Doron Spielman (https://www.jns.org/topic/true-east/), is that within this plan Israel would end up getting saddled with administrative responsibility for the two million Gazan civilians to be moved to the east of the yellow line.
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I see additional problems as well. No one is even hinting at Israel securing sovereignty in Gaza (or the part of Gaza to the east of the yellow line). It seems Israel would be expected to carry the weight of administering the people there, taking down Hamas to the west, and then be pushed out as Arab/Muslim nations proceeded with the development.
One of the concerns that hangs over us is the matter of who would ultimately be in control in Gaza. The US is still eyeing the Palestinian Authority, but this is absolutely unacceptable to Israel. I will be looking at this issue in further detail in coming posts.
The involvement of Qatar, Turkey and Egypt as key players – a situation fostered by Trump – makes a satisfactory resolution of the situation greatly more challenging. There are Muslim nations not predisposed to supporting Hamas that might be involved more constructively.
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Trump appears to have just taken a positive action – past due – as he works to outlaw the Muslim Brotherhood. Hamas is a spin-off of the Brotherhood.
Explains Jonathan Tobin, editor of JNS, Trump has signed an executive order setting “in motion a process by which certain chapters or other subdivisions of the Muslim Brotherhood shall be considered for designation as Foreign Terrorist Organizations.”
There is something tentative about this, and very narrowly drafted – for example, referring only to the Brotherhood’s “military wing,” a distinction without real meaning. Tobin asks the question as to why this is so (emphasis added):
“The answer is that the Muslim Brotherhood has powerful friends, both foreign and domestic, who seem to have Trump’s ear. In particular, the emirate of Qatar, which has spent vast sums freely to acquire enormous influence over the worlds of American business, education and politics, doesn’t want the administration to act against the group.
“The question the executive order raises goes to the heart of the struggle to determine Trump’s Middle East policy. While the president has always been eager to fight Islamist terrorism and support American allies, such as Israel and moderate Arab governments that the Brotherhood is seeking to destroy, he is also clearly enamored of and influenced by Qatar and the American friends the emirate has purchased…
“This highlights a basic contradiction in Trump’s stance. You can’t seriously fight the Brotherhood and its terrorist offshoots like Hamas while at the same time cozying up to the government that is their chief donor and protector. Yet that’s exactly what the administration has done.”
And this tells us, clearly, why Hamas is still standing.
Tobin’s article is exceedingly important. I urge you to read it in its entirety, my friends, and to share it broadly.
https://www.jns.org/cant-fight-the-muslim-brotherhood-while-groveling-to-qatar/
In fact, do more than share it. Raise your voices, long and loud, in a variety of venues, protesting this Trump policy that embraces Qatar, thus undermining chances for peace in Gaza.
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Another deceased hostage – Dror Or of Kibbutz Be’eri – has been brought home and properly identified. He had apparently been held by Islamic Jihad. There remain then two additional deceased hostages that Hamas is obligated to return.
Once the two have been returned, phase one of Trump’s plan will have completed, and it is anyone’s guess as to what Trump will do next.
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Our concern, I believe, must be regarding what Bibi Netanyahu will do next. There is solid reason to believe that he has chosen not to take resolute action against Hamas now because he seeks the fulfillment of their commitment to return all hostages.
Once we have everyone, there is a considerable likelihood that we will return to war, and to the defeat of Hamas. Most Israelis expect this. Most Israelis understand that this is necessary. The fighting will be fierce because there will no longer be a sense of restraint regarding the danger of accidentally hitting a hostage in a tunnel.
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Just three days ago at a Security Cabinet meeting, Prime Minister Netanyahu made it clear that no approval is needed for military action taken for Israeli security. He was referring to action in Gaza and against Hezbollah.
“All the talk that ‘we must receive approvals for this’ from one source or another is simply an absolute lie.
“We operate independently of anyone. Immediate actions to thwart attacks are taken by the IDF automatically. As for the responses, that goes through the Defense Minister and eventually reaches me, and we decide independently of any factor, and that is how it should be.”
https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/politics-and-diplomacy/article-874865
Well, bravo and may he hold fast to this attitude going forward. A great deal depends upon this.
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Please, pray for all of Am Yisrael: for the wisdom and courage of our leaders, the healing of the returned hostages, return of all deceased hostages, and our final victory over Hamas.
©Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by independent journalist Arlene Kushner. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution.
