Before I address the imperative that is at the heart of this posting, I want to back up and provide a bit of the analysis I had been promising while I focused on Gaza.
Just over a week ago, in the face of news of horrendous attacks on protesters in the street by the Iranian regime, Trump put out a message to the Iranian people on his TruthSocial platform:
“Keep protesting!” he urged them. “Take over your institutions. Help is on the way.”
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He didn’t explain what sort of help he was offering, or when it would come. The broad assumption was that it would be a military strike that would be happening soon. There were a number of signs that this might be the case: All but essential personnel were being moved out of U.S. army bases in the region – most notably from the largest, Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar. And the nuclear-powered USS Abraham Lincoln, capable of carrying 90 jet planes and helicopters, was redirected to the Middle East accompanied by two destroyers.
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And then: Nothing! No attack. People were stunned.
There were those who have suggested that it was all talk and he never intended to attack. I don’t believe that. The question is why he changed his mind – bringing crushing disappointment to the Iranian people.
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The single explanation he provided was with regard to the fact that the Iranian regime had decided to hold off on their threat to execute 800 protesters (emphasis added):
“We’ve been told that the killing in Iran is stopping – it’s stopped — it’s stopping. And there’s no plan for executions, or an execution, or executions — so I’ve been told that on good authority.”
The information, he said, came from some “very important sources on the other side.”
But he qualified this, saying, “I hope it’s true. Who knows? We’re going to watch it and see what the process is.”
https://apnews.com/article/trump-iran-protesters-executions
The implication was that an attack was still possible in the future. Today, this is still the case.
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I point out here that there has been no clarity as to what sort of attack he intended if he indeed had planned to attack.
A variety of military alternatives had been presented to him, and it was not necessarily even the case that he had determined with certainty what kind of military action to authorize – it was all happening very fast. This may be part of the reason why he didn’t attack when it was expected he would: he needed (needs?) more time to decide on the best alternative. Sometimes quick action is required – so that some are saying he has already lost his window of opportunity.
But this is not always the case. Sometimes a degree of careful determination and preparation is required before acting.
To decide on the best alternative means first clarifying the goals of U.S. action. Was he after taking down the regime, or simply “discouraging” the regime from violence against protesters?
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It may have been the case that a plan of action had been determined, but that more time was required to set in place all of the necessary military elements. This was a very different scenario from the U.S. attack on Iran last June: That one was executed as a surprise, with ample time to prepare. And the goals were clear – taking out ballistic missiles and nuclear enrichment equipment, with no intention of taking down the regime.
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The entire situation today is fraught with complexity. I do not have the final answers, but I would like to share some of the issues that have been raised over the past week:
[] Neighboring Arab states – notably Saudi Arabia – had expressed concern that a U.S. attack would ultimately lead to a regional war. They discouraged the attack and declined to allow the US use of their air space.
Pictured: de facto ruler Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman
[] There were reports that Prime Minister Netanyahu requested that Trump hold off a bit because Israel was still in process of replenishing military equipment utilized against Iranian rockets in June. It is a given that if the U.S. hits Iran, Iran will hit Israel. That threat has been out there consistently.
However, I also read reports from those involved with the process of military replenishment who denied that this was a concern. They maintained that work on replenishment was being done at a furious pace precisely to ensure that Israel would be equipped if the need rose.
[] There has been considerable debate about whether it is appropriate to take down the regime – or whether that regime should be weakened sufficiently so that the people of Iran can take it down.
What is clear, however, is that the Islamist regime rules with an iron fist of such ferocity that the people simply cannot do that. Missing throughout – and this is a key issue – is any movement by members of the security forces (IRGC in particular) to abandon the regime and stand with the people.
What is more, in spite of the large numbers of brave individuals who have taken to the streets, there is no resistance leader inside the country with a developed organization.
Reza Pahlavi, the son of the last shah, has assumed a leadership role from his exile in America, calling on the people to take to the streets and continue to demonstrate. And indeed there have been calls from the street for him to return to Iran as their leader.
There are, however, questions as to whether he can actually lead a revolution from outside the country. (He has been in Washington DC for the better part of 50 years.) Additionally I have read that various ethnic groups within Iran have been reluctant to join the street demonstrations that call for his return because the policies of his father, the shah, had been repressive towards them.
And there have been warning that this repressive regime might be brought down and then followed by another different but equally repressive and authoritative regime. Revolution does not ensure moderation.
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And so here we are. The only clue as to Trump’s possible intentions is a statement he made in an interview with Politico: “It’s time to look for new leadership in Iran.”
This was a remark aimed at the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has ruled for 37 years.
I had assumed that if it were possible to take out Khamenei, who is in hiding, it would signal the end of the regime, but there are experts who believe this is not the case.
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Trump’s envoy Witkoff made a comment subsequent to this regarding the possibility of negotiations with Iran. This is NOT the way to go. First because Iran cannot be trusted to adhere to commitments so that negotiations are ultimately futile. And then because negotiations take time and a decision regarding an attack on Iran must be made soon.
What did occur to me, with regard to the possibility of negotiations, is that Trump might be feigning preparations for a military attack in order to push Iran to the table. I do not really think so and fervently hope not.
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Estimates are that if Trump does decide to attack, it will be within approximately a week. There is a question of how much he is focused on Iran now. He’s been mighty busy with his event in Davos on Wednesday and his focus on Greenland. But some analysts see this as positive: he may be waiting for less public attention on the issue before he attacks.
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And here we come to the issue of the moral imperative.
What is crystal clear at this point is that the regime in Iran is violently repressing the people of Iran. They have been able to carry out much of their extreme brutality with a minimum of international attention (not that the international community cares a good deal) because they have shut down the Internet and there is not a great deal of information coming out.
The little that has come through paints a picture that is horrendous.
Yesterday (Wednesday), the JPost ran a front-page exposé by Alex Winston, that included testimony that has leaked through. It makes the blood run cold:
Winston cites one message that was passed through the National Union for Democracy in Iran (NUFDI), which he says “captures the scale of what Iranians say they are living through…
“’I experienced the worst, worst, worst days of my life. With the things I saw experienced, I don’t think I will ever be the same person as before. It is a crime against humanity. Tell the whole world that a crime against humanity has taken place.’ (Emphasis added here and below)
“The writer states that thousands of innocent people have been killed, that children and young people were shot in the streets…
“’The Islamic Republic turned the streets into rivers of blood.’
“The account comes from trustworthy sources and aligns with a growing body of testimony emerging from inside of Iran.”
“…Members of the Basij militia [a notoriously vicious paramilitary volunteer militia within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps] patrol Tehran on motor bikes…
“Videos have shown armed guards patrolling the streets from the backs of trucks…
“There have multiple reports and videos of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps security forces breaking down doors of private properties and beating residents…
“Reports have also emerged of Arabic-speaking mercenaries from Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan reinforcing regime forces…
“…inside Iran, the present reality is captivity – a people held hostage.
“’I am suffocating. We in Iran are 80 million hostages of this regime,’ the message to NUFDI concluded. ‘The world must act now.’”
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-883992
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The imperative is clear to me: This regime must not be permitted to stand.
I, along with most Jews, certainly most Israelis, remember what happened during the Shoah (Holocaust), when the world turned a blind eye.
Most of the world will turn a blind eye to this inhumanity as well. But we will not, must not.
Hopefully, in the end Trump will not turn a blind eye either. He has already demonstrated concern and intention to act.
It is not for me to say what military tactics should be employed in bringing down the regime. I only know they must be brought down.
Hopefully, the U.S. will act to do this, with whatever assistance is required of Israel.
What I know about my fellow Israelis is this: It is most unpleasant when we are assaulted by Iranian ballistic missiles, when we have to stay close to home and rush for shelter with every nerve-jarring siren. But we will not complain. We will understand that this must be endured so that evil does not triumph.
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Please, pray for all of Am Yisrael: for the wisdom and courage of our leaders and the strength of our people.
Pray as well for President Trump, that he will have the wisdom and courage to act decisively against evil.
©Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by independent journalist Arlene Kushner. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution.
