At first it seemed that “It never rains but it pours” was too clichéd a phrase to use when describing the current situation.
Stockcake
But on further reflection, I realized it applied quite aptly:
We were in the midst of tracking the current Israeli election process, which is raising a number of unsettling questions, when Trump announced that American money to Israel would be terminated at the end of 2026. And then, then within hours, the not-surprising but most distressing news about the US elections was announced. And to add to the complexity of our current situation – there is the major issue of war with Iran.
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Let us proceed one step at a time, examining the issues – which in several respects generate stress and lack clarity. I remain confident, with it all, that Israel will in the end contend and emerge solid.
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With regard to the elections in Israel, there is much that is not sitting right:
Central Elections Committee Chairman Justice Sohlberg has presented the official results of the election to President Herzog (on the right, below).
President’s Office
Herzog then declared that he was beginning to meet with the leadership of the parties, in order to receive recommendations as to which party head should be chosen to establish a coalition.
Addressing the ongoing election fraud investigation, Solhberg said, “Casting doubt on the election results poses a real danger. The suspicions require a thorough investigation.” He offered reassurance that while some of the suspicions are serious, the relevant parties are taking action. “At this stage, these are merely suspicions” and “the scope of the potential impact stemming from these suspicions is limited.” (my emphasis)
Herzog observed that “Any suspicion of subversive foreign interference in the election results must be fully investigated by the Shin Bet and the Police…an entire community must not be smeared.”
But the entire community (i.e., the Arabs) is not suspected of improper action and is not being smeared. The charge is against those who may have employed bribery to secure votes, and those who were bribed, taking money or other perks in return for voting in a certain fashion.
It does not take action by the whole Arab community – some two-million plus – to affect the election. Some thousands of Arabs, voting as they were bribed to do, can influence election results.
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What I see are officials assuming a politically correct stance out of concern that they might otherwise appear to be biased against the Arab community or accused of taking an anti-Arab position. I see them lacking the backbone to say that election results should not be declared official until the investigation is complete and doubts about subversive actions have been properly addressed.
Nor am I alone in this opinion. The Likud and Shas representatives who sit on the Election Committee abstained from the vote that certified the election results. Why they abstained and did not vote against is not clear to me as I write. Likud MK Amit Halevi announced his resignation from the CEC after the party’s decision to abstain. Likud’s election integrity representative, Sagi Kaisler, accused the commission of failing to consider hundreds of complaints. I believe the representatives of Otzma Yehudit did vote against. While Likud is considering the possibility of filing an appeal challenging the validity of the Committee vote; they have until November 18 to proceed.
https://www.jpost.com/israel-election-2026/article-913780
Meanwhile…in a new development in the investigation, Shin Bet Director David Zini is seeking to question four senior politicians from the Arab parties under caution, including Ta'al chairman Ahmad Tibi, Ra'am chairman Mansour Abbas, and Balad chairman Sami Abu Shehadeh. A fourth politician whom the Shin Bet director is seeking to question is a senior Knesset member whose identity cannot yet be revealed. There is “broad agreement that substantial evidence has been collected against” this particular MK. Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara has not yet granted approval for the questioning.
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/435608
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And then we have this, which perhaps says it all (emphasis added):
“During coalition consultations with representatives of the Ra'am party…Israeli President Isaac Herzog asked Ra'am chairman MK Mansour Abbas whether he considers Hamas a terrorist organization.
"’We are at war with Hamas, a murderous terrorist organization. Do you consider Hamas a terrorist organization?’ Herzog asked directly.
“’Even before we became Ra'am as a political party, we were an Islamic movement. You cannot constantly put us to this test - a test of loyalty, of upholding the law, of respecting people's dignity and ensuring their safety. You simply cannot,’ Abbas responded, avoiding a direct answer.
“Later in the meeting, the Director General of the President's Residence also raised the question, asking why Abbas was unwilling to explicitly define Hamas as a terrorist organization.
“This time, Abbas directly addressed the reason he said he was reluctant to make such a declaration, claiming, ‘I have an answer, but leave me some room to serve as a bridge and to protect myself and my family. It is a matter of saving lives.’"
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/435719
Share this broadly, my friends, for it is incredible: Abbas’s family is at risk if he speaks out against Hamas. He attempts to cover himself by saying he serves as a bridge. Where does political correctness end?? We have an MK who is controlled by Hamas and admits it. How can we permit such a man to sit in our Knesset?? Every single member of our Knesset must be loyal to Israel.
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We turn then to the announcement by President Trump that Israel will cease receiving US aid as of the end of 2026: a real stunner. He made the statement on a Fox interview on election day.
ABC News
The timing of the announcement immediately called his motivation into question. It surely was not simply a coincidence that he made this statement as he was struggling with dire predictions about a Republican loss: This was an attempt to offer Democratic voters, hardly friends of Israel, something that would draw them as they headed for the polls.
But let us first look at what this aid, totaling $3.8 million annually, actually represents. I believe there is considerable misconception about this, as many likely imagine that the US simply hands over billions to Israel.
In point of fact, the majority of these funds must be funneled back to the US to support the manufacture by the American military industry of military equipment for use by Israel.
This funding actually helps keep the American industry afloat and generates many jobs; it is almost a certainty that companies involved will protest what Trump projects as the cutoff of funds. Among the companies that participate are Lockheed Martin, Boeing, and Northrop Grumman and General Dynamics.
But there is more: Once equipment – fighter jets, including the F35I Adir (pictured) and F-15; attack helicopters; precision-guided bombs; missiles, rockets and more – is turned over to Israel, it is tested in real time (in real battle). Serving as a front-line lab, Israel makes adjustments in the equipment and funnels information to the US that allows them to make improvements; this not only increases the weapons’ efficiency, but also the market value of the equipment that is sold to other countries.
This service is priceless.
Lockheed Martin
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According to Trump, Netanyahu had agreed to the termination months ago. This increases puzzlement about his timing. The predictions of a Republican loss in Congress were not new. If he and Netanyahu had truly already agreed upon the cessation of funding months ago, why didn’t Trump mention it a week ago, or two weeks ago, when it might have had more impact?
But did Netanyahu agree? Our prime minister has not uttered a word, as I write, confirming that he and the president had agreed upon this, whether months ago or even two days ago. What Netanyahu had said months ago was that Israel has recognized a need for greater independence and that there would be a gradual phasing out of American aid over the course of ten years. This period of time would allow for the development of the equipment necessary for the manufacture of all weapons. On the American side, it would allow time for adjustments to be made by the manufacturers of the military equipment.
The impulse to be more independent and manufacture our own weapons is a very positive one. But it does need to be done in stages. The question arises as to how we would cope if no further manufacture of weapons for Israel were to be done after 2026.
However, this may not be a genuine concern, for the situation is far more complex than the way Trump presented it, in a couple of throw away sentences. Consider:
Congress has already approved funding through September 2027, and this raises doubts as to whether Trump would be able to halt aid sooner. Actually, it is unclear as to whether he meant aid would be cut off on December 31, or no new aid would be approved after December 31.
Add to this the fact that there are a number of weapon purchases already in the pipeline, but which will not be fully manufactured and delivered for years. Will they be affected by the aid cutoff?
Considering the complexities of this situation, it should not surprise us that some analysts believe Trump was, figuratively speaking, talking through his hat and that what he said simply is not going to happen.
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As I am on the subject of Trump, I allude here to the fact that he has been making all of Israel a bit crazy with his statements regarding an attack on Iran. During these last few days he has been saying that there was no need to attack because negotiations were going very well. What negotiations he was referring to is not clear. This too was likely an attempt to satisfy Democratic demands before the election. Not long before, he had been saying that he would like to pursue negotiations, but the Iranians cannot be trusted. But if he knows they cannot be trusted, what point in negotiating?
It has been maddening. But perhaps all of this is a ploy, and he will attack within days. There are massive numbers of American military personnel and much heavy military equipment in the area, poised for attack. Were there to be such an attack, Israel would join.
If he does initiate an attack, it would likely be fierce and brief (perhaps lasting no more than a week) – an attempt to weaken the Iranian regime sufficiently so that they would agree to genuine, serious negotiations. This is a pipe dream. Such an attack, if it does materialize, will very likely take place in the next two months, before the Democratic Congress is sworn in. Here too there are differing opinions; some believe he has more latitude to act now that the election is over, while others see him constrained by the Republican defeat and what he may have to contend with once the new Congress is in place.
Netanyahu’s opinion differs significantly from that of Trump in this matter. He wants to see a more sustained operation against Iran, with the aim of taking it down or weakening it sufficiently so that it subsequently falls. He harbors no illusions about negotiations. And so, we Israelis assume there will be war at some point, and we will cope with it, in all its unpleasantness. What creates greater difficulty is the not-knowing when this will happen.
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Lastly here I refer to the US midterm elections, but only briefly. There will be much more to follow and to analyze as the weeks go by. Quite simply, it is a horror. Both Houses of Congress will be controlled by a left-wing, anti-Israel, isolationist Democratic party. The victory of Abdul El-Sayed perhaps represents the worst of it. We will see gridlock going forward, and a president determined, thankfully, to wield his presidential powers, including veto power.
Perhaps most disturbing were the comments of Vice President JD Vance, who blamed America’s relationship with Israel and the war in Iran for the losses suffered by the Republicans.
Niall Carson/ ZUMA
We knew he was an isolationist, and no friend to Israel, and now he expresses his views most clearly. His charge is that there was a failure to “put America first.” And there is the possibility that he may be the next president.
But then we see that Trump has taken a strong stand in response to Vance’s charges: “That is probably true [that the election was lost over the war with Iran],” he said last night, “But at the same time, if I had to do it again, I'd have to do it again because long term, it's the only answer. You can't let Iran have nuclear."
And I say, Wow! Bravo Mr. President.
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Ari Fleischer, former White House Press Secretary for George W. Bush, has a response to Vance that merits repeating here:
“The problem was not the Iran War. It was the cease fire.
“If you start a war, you need to win it and finish it – otherwise don’t start it.
“We stood on the brink of a new, more peaceful Middle East – and then we blinked. We had a chance not only to deny Iran nuclear weapons, but to get rid of the world’s biggest supporter of terrorism.
Instead, we had a cease fire, which was followed by months of will we or won’t we finish the job. Every day was a different message. There still is. Is the war over? Is it about to begin? No one knows. There is confusion and inconsistency.
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The issue of isolationism is exceedingly important and exceedingly worrisome. And so I am going to table it now and return to it for a serious look next time I write.
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Please, do not stop praying!!
© Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by independent journalist Arlene Kushner. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution.
