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What Can We Expect Ahead??

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Getting information out as broadly as possible is critical now.

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What I am alluding to in my title is the entire situation with regard to Gaza. It is difficult to wrap one’s head around what is happening both because the situation is so fluid, and because various reports contradict each other.

A significant case in point was the front page of the Jerusalem Post on Sunday morning.

One article said:

“The US government is giving Israel a say in the composition of an international peacekeeping force for the Gaza Strip, according to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Friday.

The force must be made up of states with which ‘Israel must feel comfortable,’ Rubio said…”  (Emphasis added)

https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/israel-must-feel-comfortable-gaza-152537694.html

Alex Brandon/AP

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A second article, right next to it, said:

US President Donald Trump said that Qatar would send peacekeeping troops to Gaza if needed.”

https://www.jpost.com/american-politics/article-871587

 

Gulf News

 

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Just days ago it was reported that, “Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has ruled out any Turkish or Qatari involvement in Gaza’s postwar administration, calling such participation a ‘red line’…” 

According to an Israeli source, “Jerusalem views any Turkish or Qatari presence as a direct threat to Israeli sovereignty and regional stability.” 

https://thecradle.co/articles/netanyahu-rejects-turkish-qatari-involvement-in-post-war-gaza-efforts-report

Yesterday, Bibi reiterated the Israel position at the weekly Cabinet meeting:

Israel will determine which forces are unacceptable to us—that is how we act, and we will continue to act.”

https://www.jns.org/netanyahu-israel-will-set-its-own-red-lines-on-intl-forces-deployed-under-trump-peace-plan/

Israel’s position is quite clear, then.

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It is perhaps helpful to note that Rubio was inside of Israel when he made his statement, while Trump was speaking to Qatari leadership inside of Qatar – in the presidential plane Air Force One, which had put down for refueling at the Al Udeid Air Base. 

And so, we might say that the message delivered by each was different because each was speaking to a different audience.  We might, but I would be hesitant to say that, for I think Marco Rubio is a friend who understands our position. I suspect he truly would like Israel to be comfortable with the peacekeeping force that is being put together.  But his is not the last word.

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Let us take another look at the link I provided above that contained the quote from Trump:

https://www.jpost.com/american-politics/article-871587

Scroll down to the video of Trump sitting in the plane between the emir and the prime minister of Qatar and hear Trump declare: “The emir is one of the great leaders of the world, not just the Middle East.  He is beloved and respected by his country…”

In my last posting, I used the term “barf-inducing,” when alluding to a statement by Jared Kushner.  But this?  This is worse and I found myself momentarily at a loss as to how to account for the president’s statement. Trump is given to wildly overblown statements.  But this is just SO over the top.

Donald Trump is often described as naïve, ignorant of the power of absolutist Islamist ideology.  And to a considerable degree that is certainly true; he believes in forging deals. But it is not all about naivete.  It is also about what Trump wants, and what he thus opts to believe (or pretends to believe), and what he prefers to ignore.

Qatar is a repressive authoritarian monarchy with an abysmal record on human rights. Does Trump really believe that the people of his country love and respect the emir? I very seriously doubt it.  Does it matter to him a wit if they really love the emir or not?  Of course not.

Qatar is a major purveyor of a radical ideology that threatens Western culture.  Does Trump not know this?  Or does even this not matter to him?  Is he so dazzled by Qatar’s incredible wealth – which as we shall see, may play an important role in his plans going forward – that he overlooks a great deal else?       

Al Jazeera, the media outlet run by Qatar, is a primary means by which its radical ideology is promoted internationally. According to the Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center, Al Jazeera has been taking direct instructions from Hamas regarding how to describe given situations and what terminology to use, in order to protect the image of Hamas.

https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-871118

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And so what is it that Trump might be seeking in this situation?

In various sources, I have been picking up allusions to post-war plans for the Middle East that far exceed the simple (if I may use that term) goal of taking out Hamas.

Maj. (res) Doron Spielman, an analyst and former IDF spokesman, does “True East” podcasts on JNS,  interviewing experts in various fields.  On October 22, he hosted Amiad Cohen, CEO of the Herut Center (pictured below).

Cohen – while readily conceding that nothing is definite – spoke about the fact that there is a strategy regarding Gaza and then there is a grand strategy for the region, which encompasses a great deal more.  That grand strategy, as Cohen describes it, would lead to a new world order, an order that he says would be of benefit to Israel.  The price, however, would be allowing Hamas to remain in Gaza – a price that Cohen suggests might be worth paying in return for this new world order.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ext4CfUuS3w&list=PLsksduy16U5LbcoCm_SU-mcOYqJMut4_T&index=1&t=6s

 

Noam Rivkin Fenton

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Cohen was not greatly forthcoming with regard to the nature of this new world order, except to say that there would be a coalescence of Middle East nations (sort of an Abraham Accords on steroids) standing against the evil empires of Iran, China and Russia, as well as N. Korea.

This is an audacious vision in and of itself.  Something this grandiose would appeal to Trump, who loves deals and loves to be involved in promoting matters on a huge scale.

The major catch, and Cohen alludes to it, is that Qatar would be part of the package and would be participating in this new world order.  Suddenly then, Trump’s courting of the emir of Qatar begins to make more sense. Did he not refer to the emir as a great leader of the world?

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But for this world order to proceed, the mess in Gaza must be resolved.  Trump did what he believed was most important – and it is to his credit: he worked to help bring out the hostages (the live ones out, efforts still going forward on the deceased hostages that Hamas has not delivered).  For the rest, I suspect that what he wants is simply an end to the war, providing the quiet that he hopes will allow the grand strategy to proceed – even if it means Hamas, which is committed to attacking Israel again, remains standing in Gaza.  He makes various statements regarding consequences Hamas may yet face, but his statements cannot be relied upon.  We can only watch what he does or does not do.

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Doron Spielman declared himself dubious as to whether this grand strategy is something we should depend upon, especially as it would require us to accede control of Gaza. His preference, he made clear, is that Israel should return to fighting and finish the job.

FIDF

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I certainly concur. 

What I see is that it works to Qatar’s advantage to be a part of – playing a role in – this anticipated new order. The more the Qataris are legitimized, the greater their opportunities for advancing their Islamist ideology. This is a danger to the world that is not readily perceived. It is not their style to moderate their stance in accordance with a new role, although they might offer pretense of moderation (as they have when serving as mediators with Hamas). They will be patient as they seek new opportunities to promote their ideology and weaken the West – most particularly Israel, while strengthening Hamas.   

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This new Middle East order, should it actually materialize over time, would very likely have many different aspects to it, perhaps with a variety of side deals.  We would expect aspects of a financial/economic nature to be of key significance.

Of major interest is the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (commonly abbreviated as IMEC).

“At its core, IMEC is a trans-continental trade corridor which aims to significantly increase economic integration between the Indian, Middle Eastern and European markets. The project envisions an ambitious connectivity network that starts by sea from the western coast of India to the United Arab Emirates, then across the Middle East (Saudia Arabia, Jordan) through rail to Israel [Haifa port in Israel is a key transition point for the North Corridor heading towards Europe], and then a maritime route into Europe via Greece (or Italy or France). Along the way, hydrogen pipelines and optical data cables (undersea) are expected to be laid down.”

https://indiasworld.in/the-india-middle-east-europe-economic-corridor/

First conceptualized before October 7, IMEC had been put on hold during the war.  Since the ceasefire, interest has been renewed. And once again, quiet in Gaza would be necessary for it to be sustained going forward.  One more reason for Trump to do all in his power to continue the ceasefire – including sending a series of members of his government here to attempt to keep Israel in line.

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Here I mention the obvious: the enormous wealth of Qatar would serve well in assisting with development of IMEC.  Thus, another reason for Trump to support Qatar.

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Senator Lindsay Graham (R-SC) “has expressed deep concern over President Donald Trump’s Gaza ceasefire plan, warning that it may unintentionally empower Hamas rather than neutralize the terror group.”

“To expect an international force to go to war with Hamas to require their disarmament is unrealistic. To expect Hamas to disarm without the threat of confrontation is unrealistic,” Graham wrote.

Under the current approach, every day that goes by allows Hamas to get stronger and more lethal,” he added. “The world needs to understand that Israel cannot tolerate this outcome. If Israel feels it needs to re-engage in Gaza to finish Hamas off, they have my full support.” (Emphasis added)

https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/416908

CNN

How refreshing this is.

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And then significant points from Dan Diker, president of the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs (emphasis added):

“…the remaining 19 points of the Trump plan will only have the chance of successful implementation if it is backed by explicit American commitment reflecting Trump’s declared peace-through-strength principle, guaranteeing its public support for Israel’s right to enforce the Trump plan and respond militarily to Hamas violations.

 

“Otherwise, the Trump plan will constitute a one-time hostage release, but will not progress to stage two guaranteeing Gaza’s demilitarization and rehabilitation led by non-Hamas and non-Palestinian Authority international forces…

Hamas’s transition from above-the-radar military/terror and governing power to a below-the-radar ‘ghost’ jihadi network poses a greater long-term threat than the Islamist group’s current exposed position, enabling it to embed deeper into society, influence elections and manipulate any future government without the liabilities of public administration.

World leaders, including Trump, risk being misled by surface-level disarmament gestures (influenced and orchestrated by Turkey and Qatar, Muslim Brotherhood governments that are ideologically aligned with Hamas).

“The problem Israel faces now is that with the U.S.’s first-ever direct negotiations with Hamas—tantamount to negotiating directly with Al-Qaeda or ISIS—constitutes a de facto designation of the terror group as a legitimate political actor against whom it becomes more prohibitive for Israel to take military action in response to political violence and terror.”

https://www.jns.org/stabilizing-gaza-securing-israel-the-importance-of-disarming-hamas/

Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs

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Please, pray for all of Am Yisrael, with special prayers for the rehabilitation of the returned hostages, return of all deceased hostages, and our final victory over Hamas.

 

©Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by independent journalist Arlene Kushner. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution.