As I write, the news is replete with information about a possible ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. This ceasefire was one proposed by US Envoy Steve Witkoff, with “adjustments” made by Qatar to render it more palatable to Hamas.
I use the term “information” loosely, as the reports are neither fully consistent nor fully reliable.
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We must ask up front: why would we even consider a ceasefire, when we are so close to taking down Hamas? Why would we give them a chance to regroup, rest, and possibly remain standing? Why, and why, and why?
There are two major responses to these questions. The first is with regard to the enormous pressure being put on our prime minister by those longing desperately to bring home the hostages who are still being held in horrendous circumstances. (We will put aside here consideration of those using this issue to protest the Netanyahu government.)
Not for a second do I minimize the anguish of those who have loved ones held by Hamas. But the situation is exceedingly complex. As reports stand, we would get only 10 of the remaining 20 believed to still be alive. Hamas is going to hold some as a further bargaining chip, and it is thought that securing a partial release might make it even more difficult to secure those not yet released at a later date.
And then, there is the enormous question of what it means to curtail our efforts to bring Hamas down, even temporarily. More on this following.
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And the second reason we would consider a ceasefire is the maddening propensity of Trump for “deals.” This, too, is an exceedingly complex situation: He has been a superb friend to Israel – releasing weaponry, hitting Iran, etc. The best Israel has ever had.
But there is a level at which he simply does not get it. Failing to grasp the jihadist mentality, he believes it is possible to resolve issues with exceedingly aggressive world players by talking with them and reaching understandings. It is not.
We are seeing this now with Iran. Having participated (to a limited degree) with Israel in damaging Iran’s capacity to become a nuclear nation, Trump now speaks about a deal with Iran and his willingness to meet personally with Iranian leaders. They want to meet with the US “very badly,” he says.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UCShp4O8h6Y
But what I’ve been seeing – and sharing with my readers – is Iranian obstinance. They officially refuse to allow inspection of their sites and maintain their right to enrich uranium. They are not going to be stopped with negotiations, and Israel full well realizes this. Stopping Iran requires exquisite intelligence, sabotage of their efforts in a variety of ways, and additional attacks as required. If there is anything jihadists can be counted upon to do, it is to lie and cheat on a deal.
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In recent days, Trump has declared over and over that a ceasefire is near. Perhaps in a week, perhaps in two weeks. If we are going to talk about maximum pressure, that is what Bibi has been contending with in this context: Trump’s expectation that Israel will agree to that ceasefire.
One of the components of the ceasefire deal now being considered is the possibility of extending it beyond the specified 60 days. During those 60 days, “serious” negotiations are to be held between Israel and Hamas regarding an indefinite extension of the ceasefire – that is, an end to the war. Apparently the US is to be a guarantor of those negotiations. That this is what Trump wants is clear: he wants an end to the fighting.
And so, this is a primary concern of mine: that we might be prevented from taking Hamas down.
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Yet another concern is with regard to the release of terrorists in our prisons. This has been the deal for each release of hostages, and it is to be expected that it would be the case here too. But I noticed something unsettling. When previous deals were being negotiated, there was a ratio stated of hostages to be released for prisoners to be released. It was obscene – perhaps 20 prisoners for each civilian and 50 civilians for each soldier – but it was stated upfront.
Now, I see no figures and this has me worried. Exactly how many murderers and accessories to murder would be allowed to go free here for the 10 hostages to be released? I shudder to consider, and I believe insufficient attention is paid to this. What is the price Israelis would pay for this deal in the future?
I had read recently that Israel consented to the release of “high level” terrorists that we had previously refused to release. Come again? Think about this: It may be because we have already released all or most of the “lower level” terrorists, so there’s no one else to release except the big guys.
I had read that the goal of Hamas is to empty Israel’s prisons of all of their terrorists.
Minister of Diaspora Affairs Amichai Chikli “demanded full transparency regarding the identities and backgrounds of any terrorists released in future deals, criticizing previous lack of disclosure.”
https://www.jns.org/smotrich-blasts-gaza-aid-policy-chikli-warns-on-hostage-deal/
When you read of the previous sins of some of the terrorists who are released, it makes your blood run cold.
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There is then, also concern because the IDF would be required to partially withdraw from Gaza. To come this close, and then to give Hamas breathing time and the opportunity to regroup? To know that they would booby-trap the areas to which our soldiers would return, so that additional numbers might be lost.
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Where are we now?
Trump had announced that Israel accepted the terms of the ceasefire deal.
Hamas then indicated acceptance as well but indicated the need for some changes.
Netanyahu announced Saturday night that those changes were not acceptable:
“Among the key demands submitted by the terror organization are the cessation of the activities of the Gaza Humanitarian Fund, a gradual withdrawal of the IDF to positions agreed upon in the previous agreement and guarantees that fighting will not resume after the 60-day ceasefire. (Emphasis added.)
“According to a source, ‘Egypt, Qatar, and the US must provide guarantees for the continuation of the process. [i.e., continued negotiations aimed at permanently ending the fighting].’ Another source noted that disputes remain regarding the distribution of aid, the Rafah crossing, and the precise timeline for the withdrawal of IDF forces.”
Nonetheless, Netanyahu sent our negotiating team to Doha today (Sunday).
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/411178
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Netanyahu left today for the US and meetings with Trump tomorrow, sounding an optimistic note as he left: “We’re working for Gaza deal on our terms; ultimately, Hamas won’t be there.” (Emphasis added)
Trump still sounded positive, but less so, stating – according to one report – that there “could” be a ceasefire soon, but things might change. According to the Times of Israel, however, Trump wants to “finalize the framework for ending the war” on Monday. We have yet to see exactly what this means, but it’s unsettling. Trump is known for his lack of patience and his penchant for resolving problems quickly.
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It may be that, working with Bibi, Trump will agree to a deal for ending the war that requires the end of Hamas. That certainly is what our prime minister is intent on seeing happen.
But if Trump pushes for an “end of war” deal that presents a threat to Israel, our prime minister must find the strength to refuse it.
Stand strong, Bibi!
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It might also be that Hamas will agree to nothing that is proposed, and we will continue to fight until they are finished. It is understood in this scenario that we would bring out the hostages – they would not be forgotten.
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Many other issues are to be discussed in the White House tomorrow as well.
Hold tight and stay tuned.
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I ask for prayers for all of Am Yisrael.
Pray for the wisdom and courage of our leaders.
Pray for the safety of our soldiers as they fight.
Pray for the recovery of all hostages.
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©Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by independent journalist Arlene Kushner. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution.
