The need for this balancing act is a simple fact of life. But our current situation has thrown this reality into sharp relief.
On June 24th, after 12 days of fighting, our war with Iran ended. Or, perhaps more accurately, it “sort of” ended: In the opinion of many, the ending was premature. Trump declared a ceasefire while our planes were in the air headed for an attack on Iranian military targets – an attack that never took place.
Without question, there was a sense of gratitude here in Israel with regard to what had been accomplished during those 12 days. Gratitude first to the Almighty.
Here we see Netanyahu offering special prayers before the Kotel after the final attack on Iran.
And then, gratitude to the leaders of Israel and the US, who ordered the attacks on Iran. There was solid intelligence that Iran – which has consistently sworn to destroy Israel – had been on the cusp of becoming a nuclear power.
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However, even as we felt enormous relief that the imminent nuclear threat of Iran had been diminished, there were ways in which the relief was tentative or incomplete. Iran was not defeated, but rather, set back in its efforts to develop a nuclear weapon.
Tensions were exacerbated because information regarding what had been accomplished during those 12 days was anything but clear. While there were reports indicating that damage to the nuclear reactors was actually minimal, my best information, gleaned from sources here in Israel, indicates that serious damage was done. This is not to say that all centrifuges were taken out or that Trump’s declaration of having “obliterated” the nuclear sites is accurate.
There were reports of trucks sighted outside of Fordow prior to the attack on the site, with some suggesting that the Iranians had smuggled the enriched uranium from that site and still possessed it.
The lineup of trucks can be seen here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_IvBSsE586U
However, I have seen an extensive analysis that argues the logistics would have rendered this impossible. You don’t load radioactive material on the back of a pickup truck. It is believed that the trucks were participating in an effort to seal vents leading to the depths of Fordow.
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What we do see is that Iran is already attempting to rally and is exhibiting a defiant tone. The Iranians have decided to suspend cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) regarding inspections of its nuclear sites. Today (Wednesday) legislation was passed in Iran that aims to ‘ensure full support for the inherent rights’ of Iran, ‘especially uranium enrichment.’
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Earlier this week, journalist Khaled Abu Toameh – a Fellow of the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs – had written: “The continuing rule of Iran and its terror proxies remains a major threat to security and stability in the Middle East…Iran’s regime may have lost its nuclear sites, but it has not lost its appetite to kill Jews and wipe Israel off the map.”
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/21708/obliterating-iran-nuclear-sites-is-not-enough
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Similarly, did Avigdor Lieberman, chair of Yisrael Beitenu and former defense minister, deliver a warning to the Knesset yesterday that we have a maximum of three years before we will face another, tougher round of fighting with Iran.
Tehran, he stated, was “determined to exact revenge” for the blows it suffered in the recent Israel-Iran exchange…“These are not theoretical threats…The next stage will be more complex and more difficult.”
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Following the end of the 12-day war with Iran, reports from mental health professionals had surfaced with regard to what Israelis might expect emotionally. A sense of relief and gladness does not come all at once, we were cautioned. There will be periods of sadness and sleeplessness, feelings of fatigue.
In any event, this would be so. But given the broader context of what we are dealing with, how much more is it so!
Ask almost any Israeli today, how he or she is, and you are likely to get a shrug, and an answer along the lines of “like everyone else.”
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Where then is the sweet in all of this? Actually, it is enormous.
All of Israel understood the importance of our having hit Iran as we did. But it was only in the days after we hit that details of what had been accomplished became clear. In a nutshell, we were amazing. Extraordinary. This 12-day war, declared military analysts, was more astounding than Israel’s six-day war.
Israeli planes quickly gained control of the airspace over Tehran and across Iran. Our planes flew in, attacked, and flew out, without damage to a single plane.
Our astounding intelligence allowed us to hit key security personnel, as well as nuclear and ballistic missile scientists at the start of the attack. This will now render Iran less capable of rebuilding.
Most astounding is that the Mossad has maintained a presence in Iran for years, right under the noses of Iranian security, and will continue to operate in this fashion going forward. We have a large cadre of Iranians eager to undercut the regime, who work with us.
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And so, we can rejoice in what we were able to accomplish and find reassurance in our ability to continue to function every bit as effectively going forward. During these 12 days, we took on Iran in a manner no one from the outside would have thought possible and – Please God! – we will continue to function to protect our land and our people going forward.
See a detailed description of what transpired in the war:
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Last week, Minister of Defense Yisrael Katz “directed the IDF to formulate an enforcement plan against Iran, including steps to preserve Israel’s aerial superiority, prevent the advancement of Tehran’s nuclear and missile programs, and respond to the Islamic Republic’s support for terrorism.”
https://worldisraelnews.com/katz-directs-idf-to-develop-plan-to-stymie-iranian-recovery/
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Taking down the regime of the mullahs was not a stated goal of Israel (except insofar as Defense Minister Katz spoke of eliminating the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei). But the obvious resolution to the threat of Iran is a regime change, with a moderate, pro-Western regime stepping in. I remain dubious about this because I continue to read of various and diverse opposition factions, when in fact a unified resistance is needed. I would dearly love to be wrong on this.
Last week MK Dan Illouz (Likud) organized a meeting of members of various factions of the Iranian opposition and members of the Knesset – both from the coalition and the opposition – via Zoom.
Its primary goal was to foster direct dialogue between Israeli public officials and Iranian opposition leaders. It was conducted under conditions of anonymity, so there are no names supplies and no pictures.
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Yesterday, there was a wide scale alert across Israel because the Houthis in Yemen – an Iranian proxy group – had launched a missile in our direction.
It was successfully taken down; there were no casualties. But the alerts, and the need to rush to safe rooms with alacrity, were jarring. It served to remind us of yet one other challenge we must still contend with.
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But there is also another challenge, far heavier, still confronting us: the issue of Gaza and how our fighting there will be resolved.
The ceasefire with Iran, and the quiet that ensued here in Israel, was not even a day old when we awoke to the news of the death of seven soldiers in Khan Younis; all were attached to the 605th Combat Engineering Battalion of the 188th Brigade. The armored vehicle they were in was hit by an explosive device.
Bottom row, left to right: Sgt. Maayan Baruch Pearlstein, Staff Sgt. Niv Radia, Sgt. Shahar Manoav, and Staff Sgt. Alon Davidov.
(Israel Defense Forces)
It pierces our hearts when even one of our brave soldiers dies. This was heavy. Since then, two more soldiers have been killed.
And so, very quickly, our focus then turned to the war in Gaza and where it is going. There are two schools of thought here in Israel:
Stop the war if it can secure the release of all of the remaining hostages – some 20 or fewer are believed to be alive out of 50 being held.
Or continue fighting until Hamas is vanquished.
As my readers well know, I stand with the latter alternative. Not because I am not eager to bring the hostages home, but because I believe that the jihadists of Hamas are evil to the core and must be eradicated. Their goal is also the destruction of Israel, and we must be certain that they are never in a position to hurt a single Jew again.
In point of fact, we have been hitting hard and having considerable success of late. Reports are that Hamas is close to collapse. We are in control of somewhere between 60% and 75% of the land (estimates vary); calculations are that we need to control at least 75%.
The IDF is prepared to do a final major military push, if the political echelon gives the word. It likely would not take long. Weeks? But the political echelon has not given that word, because Trump is pushing for a ceasefire.
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Today (Wednesday) he announced that Israel had agreed to the terms of the ceasefire he is proposing. (It is always interesting to me that Trump makes such announcements when we have not yet heard from our prime minister with regard to the issue at hand.)
Hamas, however, while said to be considering the proposal (which may have undergone some modifications), has not agreed to it as of this writing.
The core issue remains the same: Israel would agree to a 60-day ceasefire for the return of 10 hostages in all (it is not clear to me that all would be alive). Discussions regarding a permanent cessation of hostilities would be held during that 60 days, with Israel having the latitude to return to attack at the end of those 60 days if nothing further had been agreed upon.
Hamas wants the ceasefire to extend beyond the 60 days, if no final agreement had been achieved prior to that, and to be maintained until there is an agreement. In short, Hamas wants the end of the war. Period.
It is difficult for me to believe that Netanyahu would agree to this. Israel would accept an end to the war if the Hamas leaders were exiled and Hamas was demilitarized.
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Netanyahu is scheduled to meet Trump at the White House on Monday; Ron Dermer, Minister of Strategic Affairs and a close Netanyahu confidant, is apparently going to Washington ahead of Bibi. It is clear that Trump and company will attempt to pressure Dermer – who is hardline on this issue – to modify his stance.
I will close here, as this is an evolving situation.
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I ask for prayers for all of Am Yisrael.
Pray for the wisdom and courage of our leaders.
Pray for the safety of our soldiers as they fight.
Pray for the recovery of all hostages.
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©Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by independent journalist Arlene Kushner. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution.
