Otherwise, you will find your head swimming. I commented to a friend yesterday that I think the news shifts every three-and-a-half hours; he told me I was wrong, it was every three-and-a-half minutes.
But all attempts at humor aside, one often has the feeling these days that it is difficult to hold fast to an understanding of any particular event, because the political undercurrents shift it so readily.
And imagine trying to post in this environment. So often these days, I prepare a post mindful of the fact that what I am writing about may change before my readers see it. But I proceed…
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The entire topic of our war with Hamas in Gaza and securing the release of the hostages perhaps most vividly exemplifies the situation described above.
With a new chief-of-staff in place and the refusal of Hamas to agree to any acceptable terms for the release of further hostages, we had returned to active fighting at a dramatic pace. We were not about to allow Hamas additional time for a de facto ceasefire, during which they would further strengthen, if there were no benefit for our side.
And results appeared to be very good. The very swiftness with which the IDF operated overwhelmed Hamas; there were predictions for the first time that we might actually be able to take them down.
Then, in the face of these gains, the IDF slowed down considerably, although there was not a complete halt to fighting.
Why? Because Egypt had floated a new proposal for a ceasefire-hostage release deal that appeared to have some potential. It seems a pretty solid bet that this proposal came from Egypt in order to provide a struggling Hamas with a breather. Or, let me put it differently: at the request of Hamas because they needed a breather. You can rest assured it was not because Egyptian president Sisi was worried about the wellbeing of Israeli hostages. Word was out in various media sources that this deal might fly, as Hamas was showing some flexibility.
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What Egypt had proposed was the release of five live hostages of the perhaps 21 or 22 in captivity believed to still be alive, to be released in phases. (How many phases for five hostages?). This would be in return for a 50-day ceasefire.
Israel countered with a demand for half of the remaining live hostages, presumably 11 in number, to be released at once at the beginning of a 40-day ceasefire; that number would apparently include America-Israeli Edan Alexander. (President Trump had floated a suggestion that Alexander, the only remaining American-Israeli in captivity still alive, be released in return for a statement from him calling for a ceasefire. Hamas was not interested.)
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/406205
Additional stipulations have now been added by Israel: verification mechanisms in place to ensure humanitarian supplies reach Gaza residents rather than Hamas; detailed information on the condition of each hostage; and guarantees from the mediators for the safety and well-being of all hostages during the pause in fighting and subsequent negotiations.
Another report surfaced that spoke about moving into negotiations for stage two of the ceasefire, with half of the hostages to be released as negotiations began and the remaining half of the hostages to be released at the end of these negotiations. I find this a dubious proposition, as Hamas would not be pleased with the negotiating position of Israel. (More on this below.)
Hamas – which was insisting five hostages was the maximum to be released – has the Israeli counter- proposal under consideration, but we should not expect a speedy answer. Nor should we expect a positive one.
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In the course of all of this, there were, of course, demonstrations by families of hostages – and, as usual, those on the left using this issue to weaken the government.
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The angst of those concerned about relatives in captivity is deep, and their fears are not without justification. When they hear of a deal to bring out half the remaining hostages, they recognize that there may never be a subsequent deal that brings out the other half: that their relatives may be lost. Their anxiety is exacerbated by the cruel psychological manipulation of Hamas, which puts out videos of hostages begging to be brought out.
Bring all at once! The families cry. And their plea makes sense, to a point. For what they call for is an end to fighting, which they imagine will accomplish this goal.
I’ve already written extensively on why this is not a good idea, and why there is an imperative to take out Hamas. I wanted to cry out to these worried families: wasn’t there a ceasefire during which Hamas gave nothing? Did you not notice that Hamas was willing to at least consider making some sort of deal now because they were being hit hard?
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And sure enough, on Sunday, Prime Minister Netanyahu declared that the military pressure on Hamas is working.
“It’s working because it operates simultaneously: on one hand, it crushes Hamas’s military and governmental capabilities, and on the other, it creates the conditions for the release of our hostages. That’s exactly what we’re doing.
“We are committed to bringing the hostages back, and we are working to bring the hostages back. To this day, the combination of military and diplomatic pressure is the only thing that has led to the return of hostages.”
https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-848124
The day before the Security Cabinet had voted to increase operations against Hamas.
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And so, we have gone back to more strenuous fighting in Gaza.
The IDF issued an evacuation warning on Monday for Gazans in the entire Rafah area of southern Gaza, saying the military was “returning to fight with great force to eliminate the capabilities of terror organizations in these areas.
“In a post on X, the IDF’s Arabic-language spokesman, Col. Avichay Adraee, published a map of the area to be evacuated, telling Gazans to move to the al-Mawasi area on the southern Strip’s coast. It was the most significant evacuation order issued by the IDF since the resumption of the offensive against Hamas earlier this month ended a two-month ceasefire.”
“The evacuation area covers a large swath of land between Rafah and Khan Younis, where the IDF has so far not operated with ground forces.”
We have been advised that fighting will intensify further if no hostages are released, but this will not require the sort of reserve call-up that was necessary at the beginning of the war.
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Netanyahu also addressed stage two of negotiations during his comments. He maintains that the claim that Israel is unwilling to advance to that stage is incorrect:
“…We are willing. Hamas will lay down its weapons. Its leaders will be allowed to leave. We will see to the general security in the Gaza Strip and will allow the realization of the Trump plan for voluntary migration. This is the plan. We are not hiding this and are ready to discuss it at any time.”
https://www.gov.il/en/pages/spoke-start300325
It appears, then, that our prime minister is headed in a new direction. There has been a broadscale understanding – whether it was formalized in writing when Witkoff pushed the Biden ceasefire plan on us remains unclear – that stage two called for the IDF to slowly depart Gaza entirely with a permanent ceasefire to be set in place.
My own suspicion is that this may simply have been Netanyahu’s way of letting Hamas know that we were not leaving Gaza.
As we might have expected, yesterday, Hamas political bureau deputy chairman Khalil al-Hayya responded (emphasis added): “As long as the occupation continues, the resistance will retain its weapons. This is a red line we will not cross.”
https://www.jns.org/hamas-official-says-disarmament-a-red-line/
The words of Al-Hayya were apparently drawn from a special document on the matter of disarming drafted in Beirut by the representatives of 13 Palestinian terrorist groups, including Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine:
At present “they will not compromise on their weapons. However, they are willing to begin discussions on the issue if and when Israel fully withdraws from the Gaza Strip, a comprehensive ceasefire is implemented, and negotiations begin on the establishment of a Palestinian state. In such a case, the organizations are prepared to discuss integrating their armed wings into the institutions of a future Palestinian state.”
https://www.israelhayom.com/2025/03/31/hamas-these-are-our-conditions-for-disarmament/
And so, let there be no delusions as to what we are facing.
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Before closing let me mention another situation that has morphed significantly in a brief period of time: the massive demonstrations by Gazans against Hamas that continued unabated for a number of days.
From the beginning there were several differing interpretations as to what this meant. At first glance it certainly seemed to represent a weakening of Hamas: this was such a switch from the prior situation in Gaza that it promoted a sense of new possibilities.
Caution was voiced by various analysts, however, not to equate an anti-Hamas stance with one that was pro-Israel. We were reminded that not one “civilian” Gazan ever lifted a finger to help a hostage (whereas there were righteous gentiles in Germany who did help Jews). Thus was it difficult to guess where this was going or what its implications were.
There were even some who suggested that Hamas promoted these demonstrations for their own purposes – that they would not have been possible otherwise. It was pointed out that massive numbers out on the streets in a variety of locations might inhibit Israel’s ability to attack.
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Well, as you may have heard, the situation has now been turned on its head: Hamas is beginning to take action against demonstrators.
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/sjl5xnua1x
On the other hand, according to Arutz Sheva, “Family members belonging to a local clan in Deir al-Balah in the Gaza Strip executed a Hamas police officer who was alleged to have shot and killed a member of the clan.
“The execution was documented in a video that has caused an outroar in the Gaza Strip.”
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/406261
This is not something that would have happened prior to the demonstrations. The undercurrents have shifted. How it will go remains to be seen.
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I ask for prayers for Israel’s wellbeing.
Pray for the wisdom and courage of our leaders.
Pray for the safety of our brave troops.
Pray that the hostages will be brought home.
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©Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by independent journalist Arlene Kushner. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution.
