With regard to the “ceasefire” in Lebanon, that is. If you are a realist, it is likely you expected very little. And very little is what we are going to get. At best.
~~~~~~~~~~
After the deal was finalized, we heard about a side arrangement between Israel and the US: a secret letter from Biden to Netanyahu, providing assurances that the IDF would be able to respond to all violations by Hezbollah. It was put in place after serious negotiations between Israeli Minister of Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer and members of the Biden administration.
The letter was shown to the Security Cabinet but has otherwise remained classified. The fact that it would not be made public raised serious questions about how much weight it carries.
Last Monday, military analyst Yaakov Lappin cited Brig. Gen. (res.) Hanan Geffen, former commander of Unit 8200 in the IDF Military Intelligence Directorate. Geffen addressed issues of Israel’s “freedom of action,” purportedly granted within that secret agreement: He cited a hypothetical instance in which Hezbollah was smuggling serious weapons into Lebanon, which would require immediate action. “…if freedom of action means two days of discussions, then it’s not so much freedom of action, because if you want to respond to an event, you cannot hold discussions.”
https://www.jns.org/implementation-challenges-in-lebanon-ceasefire-agreement/
He was referring to a clause in the ceasefire agreement regarding a “monitoring mechanism” – consisting of the US and France – which is charged with investigating claims that the ceasefire had been breached.
~~~~~~~~~~
And yet, Prime Minister Netanyahu was quite clear in his stated intentions: With the United States’ full understanding, we maintain full freedom of military action.”
He vowed to enforce the ceasefire by responding to all violations by Hezbollah. “To every violation, we will respond with force. A good deal is one that is enforced, and we will enforce it.”
~~~~~~~~~~
Lappin referred to the Lebanese army as Hezbollah in army uniforms. In a follow-up article on Friday – https://www.jns.org/the-ceasefire-is-shaky-like-all-things-in-lebanon/ – he cited Professor Eyal Zisser, who holds a chair at Tel Aviv University in Contemporary History of the Middle East:
“It [the success of the ceasefire] depends on one thing—whether Hezbollah will be deterred from violating it for fear of an Israeli response.” Zisser’s conclusion was that the burden to enforce the agreement – including for “minor” incidents – fell on Israel.
~~~~~~~~~~
Professor Zisser was correct in his assessment that, “Hezbollah will seek to rearm and violate the agreement as soon as it can.” There have been violations every day since the ceasefire went into effect.
On Saturday, the IDF reported that it had acted against Hezbollah activities in Lebanon that posed a threat to Israel and violated the ceasefire agreement. Just a few examples:
“…armed men were spotted arriving in southern Lebanon, loading RPGs, ammunition crates, and additional military equipment onto a vehicle. A short time later, Israeli aircraft attacked the vehicle.
“Additionally, terrorists were identified in Hezbollah-controlled buildings in Southern Lebanon…with Israeli forces subsequently discovering a weapon cache, including grenades and a pistol.
“Later on Saturday, a Hezbollah facility in Sidon with rocket launchers was attacked by fighter jets. Israeli aircraft also targeted a military site in southern Lebanon connected to Hezbollah’s missile production infrastructure.”
“This weekend, Israeli forces spotted several armed terrorists adjacent to a church in southern Lebanon that was actively used by Hezbollah and eliminated the operatives.
“The…terrorists were operatives in the Hezbollah Khiam ground defense, anti-tank missile, and artillery units and shot at the[IDF] troops from the church…Following the elimination of the terrorists, the troops scanned the church area and located a tunnel shaft containing weapons.”
~~~~~~~~~~
And so, what did we see yesterday? An accusation by France that Israel violated the ceasefire 52 times. The French complained that Israel had not first notified the “monitoring mechanism” of the violations. That “mechanism” would decide if there had been a violation and what response was required.
US envoy Amos Hochstein reportedly added his voice to that of the French, pointing to the return of Israeli drones in the skies over Beirut. Apparently, this – Israel’s use of drones for surveillance – is the main complaint of the US. (see Jewish Press link above)
According to State Department Spokesman Mathew Miller, the US has not yet determined if Israel has violated the ceasefire. He says the “monitoring mechanism” will become more formalized in the coming days, which means the US will expect Israel to report violations by Hamas.
~~~~~~~~~~
At least we have clarity now regarding that letter from Biden: it is worth zilch.
Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar responded to the accusations, saying that “Israel is not violating the ceasefire understandings but is instead enforcing them in response to Hezbollah’s violations.
“[Israel] will not return to the reality of October 6, 2023.”
https://www.jns.org/israeli-fm-to-french-counterpart-jerusalem-is-enforcing-ceasefire/
~~~~~~~~~~
Yesterday afternoon, Hezbollah launched two mortar shells over the border with Israel, at an IDF post in the Mount Dov area of the Golan Heights.
Defense Minister Yisrael Katz declared that there would be a “harsh response” to Hezbollah’s actions. “What was will no longer be.” And indeed, later in the day yesterday, the IAF struck dozens of launchers and terrorist infrastructure throughout Lebanon.
At the same time, both Israel and Lebanon have informed the White House of an ongoing commitment to the ceasefire agreement. Israel is committed to continuing actions to enforce the ceasefire, while a Hezbollah-controlled Lebanon will not meet its obligations.
~~~~~~~~~~
If this on-again, off-again attempt to tie Israel’s hands makes you weary, you are in good company. Always, the position of the international community is to block Israel from totally defeating an enemy.
The good news is that post-October 7, Israel is acting with a new determination.
~~~~~~~~~~
On that note, let us turn to Gaza, where fighting is still going on.
As to a deal to secure the release of the hostages, the parameters here are even more convoluted than those of the Lebanon ceasefire.
It is understood that the hostages are suffering, starved by Hamas and facing the conditions of winter. It is estimated that additional captives have died. Prime Minister Netanyahu says he is ready for a ceasefire that will secure the release of the hostages without requiring an end to the war and IDF withdrawal from Gaza. While Hamas is “open to discussing all ideas and proposals that lead to the end of the war, Israel’s withdrawal from the Gaza Strip.” A very painful stalemate.
On Saturday, Hamas released a cruel propaganda video of Israeli-American hostage Edan Alexander, 21.
Cpt. Omer Maxim Neutra, 21, an Israeli-American lone soldier, was a tank commander stationed on border on October 7. Until now it was believed that he was abducted and was being held captive, but now it has been discovered that he died on the 7th, and Hamas took his body.
~~~~~~~~~~
Every now and then, Hamas and Fatah – the key party of the PLO, headed by Mahmoud Abbas – who are rivals and enemies, find it prudent to come together. Now is such a time.
Representatives of the two groups met in Cairo to discuss the creation of a “national” committee to manage Gaza affairs until an alternative government is set up. According to the agreement, the committee will operate in accordance with the principles of protecting what is considered “the unity of the Palestinian state lands”
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/400146
This is not going to happen but is worthy of attention for two reasons: First because Hamas is not yet finished, but instead is devising methods for staying relevant. And then because it reminds us that the PLO is no better than Hamas, with which it is ready to get in bed.
~~~~~~~~~~
An analysis written by Alex Joffee and Asaf Romirowsky sheds light on the mentality of Palestinian Arabs – Hamas and PLO Arabs alike. They have moved, say the authors, beyond “intifada,” which calls for support for the Palestinians, and has promoted everything from rock throwing to suicide bombing. It broadly suggests “throwing off the shackles of capitalism and the West.”
But now a new concept – more vicious still – has been embraced: “razzia,” which in Arabic means “raid. Modelled after the behavior of Mohammad and his army, it religiously sanctions murder, torture, rape and kidnapping. In other words, it precisely provides the rationale for Oct. 7.
This is the Islamization of their confrontation with Jews. This is not a secular territorial battle that are fighting. There has always been religious sentiment underlying the Muslim Arab fight against Israel and the Jews. But this has now come to the fore. It is a force for religious hyperviolence.
https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-831687
It is imperative that we internalize this reality and grapple with its implications. There is no space for a “ceasefire” in Gaza, no time to close our eyes to the violations in Lebanon. When Hamas says they will do Oct. 7 again and again, they mean it. As does Hezbollah mean it when they say they will emulate the massacre committed by Hamas. It is our job to protect ourselves with maximum conviction and strength.
~~~~~~~~~~
Until recently, Alice Nderitu of Kenya served as the United Nations’ Special Advisor on the Prevention of Genocide. But then she refused to say that Israel had committed genocide in its war on Hamas. Israel’s actions are designed to defeat an enemy, not eliminate an ethnic group.
Following her insistence on taking this stand, the UN decided not to renew her contract.
People with integrity and courage are rare these days. They merit recognition and praise.
~~~~~~~~~~
And so, I close with someone else who merits recognition for a statement he recently made: President-elect Donald Trump. Writing on his Truth Social platform he said:
“Everybody is talking about the hostages who are being held so violently, inhumanely, and against the will of the entire World, in the Middle East.
“But it’s all talk, and no action! Please let this TRUTH serve to represent that if the hostages are not released prior to January 20, 2025, the date that I proudly assume Office as President of the United States, there will be ALL HELL TO PAY in the Middle East, and for those in charge who perpetrated these atrocities against Humanity.
“Those responsible will be hit harder than anybody has been hit in the long and storied History of the United States of America. RELEASE THE HOSTAGES NOW!”
https://www.jewishpress.com/news/us-news/trump-warns-hamas-release-the-hostages-now/2024/12/02/
That’s the way to talk to them. And may action follow Trump’s word after January 20, if the hostages have not been released.
~~~~~~~~~~
Please, pray with a full heart…
[] for the safety of the Jewish People everywhere,
[] for the continued strength and courage of Israel’s leaders as they make the hard decisions,
[] for the safety of our soldiers in battle as they fight a righteous war,
[] and for the rescue of the hostages.
~~~~~~~~~~
©Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by independent journalist Arlene Kushner. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution.
