I have put aside a major posting I am working on in order to write this in real time. Of course, since the situation is, as they say, fluid, what I write today may well have changed by tomorrow.
Northward: towards Lebanon and Hezbollah, which has been attacking the Israeli north since October 8, allegedly in support of Hamas. Sometimes, after a lull, the terrorists launch a barrage of rockets, missiles and drones. More than 20 soldiers and civilians have been killed; others have been wounded. There have been major fires started: agricultural fields, parkland, and wildlife have all paid an enormous price.
The most significant factor has been the disruption to Israeli life in the north. Tens of thousands of Israeli citizens, unwilling to deal with the constant risk of attacks by Hezbollah, have left their homes and are living in hotels and other temporary quarters.
Their demand – a reasonable one – is that the IDF secure conditions that make it safe for them to return home. Major figures both in the government and the military have acknowledged their responsibility to secure these conditions.
The question has been how and when.
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When there is an attack from Hezbollah, the IDF has routinely responded with some force and extracted some damage. But the exchange of fire has remained below the level of an all-out war, with each side hesitant to escalate beyond a certain point. This means the Israeli responses do not guarantee security for the residents of the Israeli north.
There has been talk of some negotiated settlement, but this – again, with reason – does not provide sufficient guarantees of security either, because Hezbollah cannot be trusted. Nothing that has been attempted diplomatically by the US has proved productive.
At one point Israel demanded that the provisions of UNSC Resolution 1701 be enforced. This calls for disarmament of Hezbollah, which would be required to remain north of the Litani River. Not surprisingly, the US rejected this option. They prefer a tepid, milk toast sort of deal. Since the resolution was passed in 2006, it has never been enforced. It was a farce from the get-go.
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On Monday, US Middle East envoy Amos Hochstein arrived here to try to convince Israel not to escalate in the north. The major concern for the US is escalation that might lead to a full-scale war. Hochstein is a fervent advocate of the milk toast sort of deal, with a few concessions thrown in on the side. (If and when time allows, I will recall a story about Hochstein and Hezbollah.)
Israel’s response to Hochstein was reassuring. When he met with the prime minister in the Kirya, IDF headquarters in Tel Aviv, Netanyahu “made it very clear” that it “will not be possible to return our residents without a fundamental change in the security situation in the north.” (Emphasis added)
Netanyahu told him that, “while Israel appreciates and respects the support of the US, it will – ultimately – do what is necessary to safeguard its security and return the residents of the north securely to their homes.”
Minister of Defense Gallant delivered a similar message to Hochstein.
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What Netanyahu was reflecting was a toughening attitude towards going into Lebanon after Hezbollah. I see two significant reasons for this.
One has to do with what we have achieved in Gaza. There has been concern about waging war on two fronts, with two adversaries, at the same time. There was a strong desire to finish Hamas first, without distraction, and then turn to the north. I will not say we are finished in Gaza, there is still work to be done. But we have achieved a great deal; we have done superbly well.
Consider:
“Since the start of the Rafah operation on May 6, troops have killed more than 2,000 Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad terrorists and destroyed some eight miles of underground smuggling and attack routes, according to an Israeli army statement on Thursday evening.
“’During these operations, the troops have dismantled the Rafah brigade of the Hamas terrorist organization,’ the military formally declared.”
“Troops destroyed some 80% of tunnels located near and beneath the Philadelphi Corridor, the army statement noted…It added that forces continue to discover and destroy underground routes.
“Speaking with reporters on Thursday, 162nd Division commander Brig. Gen. Itzik Cohen (pictured) declared that ‘four battalions have been destroyed, and we have completed operational control over the entire urban area.’”
https://www.jns.org/idf-declares-victory-over-hamass-rafah-brigade/
“Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on [September 11] revealed a letter from a senior Hamas commander to the terror group’s leader Yahya Sinwar detailing the massive damage the organization has sustained due to the ongoing war with Israel.
“The letter was written by the commander of Hamas’s Khan Yunis Brigade, Rafa’a Salameh, who was killed in an Israeli airstrike in Al-Mawasi in the Khan Yunis area in mid-July…
“Quoting figures from the letter, Gallant said, ‘Seventy percent of the weapons were destroyed. Ninety-five percent of the missiles were destroyed. Fifty percent of the terrorists were killed or wounded and many escaped…’”
Declared Gallant: “Hamas as a military formation no longer exists. Hamas is engaged in guerrilla warfare and we are still fighting Hamas terrorists and pursuing Hamas leadership.”
https://www.jns.org/gallant-reveals-document-showing-hamass-difficult-situation/
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Hamas, then, at this point should draw on less of our fighting energy, freeing more of the IDF to head northward.
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The second reason has to do with recent assessments about what we would confront in a war with Hezbollah. Its arsenal of weapons was vastly superior to what Hamas had (a fair percent of which is now destroyed). Most of Hezbollah’s rockets are dumb rockets, but it was known that the terror group possessed a number of sophisticated smart missiles, which would be capable of inflicting considerable damage on Israel.
In late August, Hezbollah was about to launch some 3,000 rockets and missiles towards Israel in retaliation for Israel’s killing of Fuad Shukr, who was responsible for the killing of 12 Israeli Druze children (and a host of other horrors).
In a stunning move, Israel preempted this attack. About an hour before the rockets were to be launched, 100 Israeli planes entered Lebanese airspace and destroyed launching sites in 40 locations. Without launchers, Hezbollah was not able to send those thousands of rockets. They ultimately launched some 200-300.
Media was focused on this feat of destroying the launching sites, but the fact is that some weaponry, apparently including smart missiles, was taken out in the same operation. To some degree, perhaps considerable, the threat of Hezbollah had been reduced.
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There are other factors at play as well. Hezbollah, as eager as Hamas to utilize human shields, hid most of its missiles in civilian areas. What I have now read is that some 80 % of the residents of southern Lebanon have fled since October 7. This reduces the possibility of enormous collateral damage and would make an operation easier.
Additionally, Hezbollah’s elite Radwan Force had been positioned along the border fence for years. But now, many of these terrorists have been taken out by the IDF or have escaped northwards.
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And so…we have seen indications that we may be headed towards a major operation in Lebanon. May be…
“Israel Defense Forces Northern Command head Maj. Gen. Ori Gordin has recently suggested in private meetings that the IDF be authorized to create a security buffer zone under Israeli control in Southern Lebanon…Gordin argued that current conditions are favorable for the IDF to swiftly implement such a move.”
https://www.jns.org/idf-northern-chief-floats-israeli-buffer-zone-in-lebanon/
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Three days ago, Netanyahu ordered the IDF to prepare for a broad campaign in Lebanon. Again, this does not mean there will necessarily be a broad campaign, but rather that we will be prepared to proceed if the decision is made to do so.
Netanyahu told the Security Cabinet, “The situation in the north cannot continue. We need to change the balance and must return the residents home. This will not be done without changing the balance vis-à-vis Hezbollah.”
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/bje3pjv60
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And then, yesterday (Tuesday) something stunning happened between 3:30 and 4:30 local Lebanon time. Thousands of Hezbollah terrorists who were carrying new pagers that had been manufactured in Taiwan were blasted when their pagers exploded. The explosions began in Hezbollah strongholds in the Bekka Valley and Dahiyeh, a Beirut suburb, and then travelled across Lebanon to different areas where there were concentrations of Hezbollah operatives.
I hesitate to provide statistics, as the numbers keep changing upward. There were a small number of deaths, perhaps 9, and some 2,800 injured, some seriously. It was primarily terrorists who were affected but there was some damage to bystanders. The blasts were contained; they did not travel far or cause fires. Only the person carrying the pager or someone nearby was affected.
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Neither will I attempt to report on how this operation was put in place. It boggles my mind, but I am hardly cutting edge on what technical possibilities exist. There are different theories being advanced, with no clear-cut answer.
What I do know is that the response to the attack was absolute pandemonium. Hospitals are overwhelmed and a panic has set in. There is no question about the fact that Hezbollah capabilities have been depleted by this operation, with thousands of its members wounded, some critically, and out of action.
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Israeli officials have remained mum on this situation and Israel has not claimed responsibility. Hezbollah officials, none the less, consider Israel responsible.
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Today (Wednesday) there was a second series of explosions, this time involving a different device – walkie-talkies, which were backup devices, part of an emergency communication system, being utilized after the pagers exploded.
This attack began at about 5 p.m., and occurred mainly in Hezbollah strongholds, as before. But in this instance explosions also took place during the funerals of some of the people who had been killed yesterday. Among these was the funeral of the son of Hezbollah-affiliated Lebanese MP Ali Amma. In all, at least 14 people were killed and at least 450 were wounded.
Israel believes Hezbollah’s toll from the attacks over the last two days is much higher than the official numbers released so far. There may be many dozens dead, and according to investigative journalist Ronen Bergman, Israel believes that the explosions caused “significant harm” to Hezbollah’s elite Radwan unit, which has lost much of its leadership.
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Today, Prime Minister Netanyahu said, succinctly: “We said we would bring residents of the north home safely – and that is what we will do.”
Tonight, Gallant said, “The center of gravity is moving north. We are diverting forces, resources, and energy toward the north…I believe that we are at the onset of a new phase in this war, and we need to adapt. We will need consistency over time, this war requires great courage, determination, and perseverance.”
The Security Cabinet has been convened to discuss ways to respond if Hezbollah decides to retaliate. There have been no new instructions from the Home Front Command.
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Colonel Richard Kemp, the former commander of the British military forces in Afghanistan, has provided a thoughtful take on the ways in which the explosions in Hezbollah devices will have a lasting effect:
Not only has it taken out a large number of Hezbollah operatives and commanders, it has enormously undermined their communication capability. “The psychological impact will be huge, with every Hezbollah terrorist now fearing that almost everything he owns or touches, including cars, guns, laptops, radios, and other electrical items, could potentially be weaponized against them.” Some may leave Hezbollah, recruitment may be difficult.
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/396381
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I close with comments from analyst Yaakov Lappin (emphasis added):
“According to Brig. Gen. (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser, former head of IDF Military Intelligence’s Research and Assessment Division and a senior research fellow at the Misgav Institute for National Security and Zionist Strategy, the ball is now in Hezbollah’s court.
“’Based on that, we’ll see how this moves forward,’ said Kuperwasser…
“Hezbollah’s range of options ranges from the minor all the way up to a large-scale attack on Israel, he said, adding that Israel is prepared for all scenarios.
“If a full-scale war does break out, he said, Israel will now be in an improved starting position to create a new reality in southern Lebanon.”
https://www.jns.org/the-ball-is-in-hezbollahs-court/
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Keep praying to Heaven for Israel.
Pray for the safety of all Israel.
Pray for the strength and wisdom of our leaders, for the safety of our soldiers, and for the rescue of our hostages.
Pray in a spirit of hope.
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©Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by independent journalist Arlene Kushner. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution.
