I often feel compelled to write on one specific theme or another in a posting. But never more urgently than now, when we are facing down an evil empire that wishes to destroy Israel and create havoc in the world.
Following the missile/drone attack on Israel on Saturday night, there were voices – totally apart from the voice of Biden – advising us not to retaliate.
Iran just intended to make a show of it, these voices said. They weren’t out to cause real damage. There were even those who maintained that Iran informed Biden in advance so that a defense would be in place to prevent damage to Israel. (The Americans vociferously deny this.) And besides, they say, there weren’t that many projectiles.
In the main, these voices sought to discourage Israel from actively responding. Don’t attack, they were saying, this is the wiser move now. Wiser because our attack would be likely to stimulate a counterattack by Iran that would be the beginning of a war. Besides which, we would be angering the US: Biden has let us know that he would not support a military retaliation by Israel.
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The Security Cabinet, however, has decided there will be a response: one that is “clear and decisive.”
It is not my intention to write here about the specifics of that response, but rather why there must be a response. The specifics will come later.
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I want to look first at the nature of the Iranian attack, which was viewed by many as far less serious than it actually was because damage from it was very, very minimal.
For a clear and powerful perspective, I cite Elder of Ziyon. He wrote this yesterday, Monday (emphasis in the original):
“As we get more information, we learn that the attack was in most ways larger than anything Russia has mounted against Ukraine.
“The extent of the attack was one of the largest seen in modern warfare. Russia’s opening “shock and awe” barrage on the first day of the invasion of Ukraine, on February 24, 2022, included between 160 and 200 cruise missiles and ballistic missiles – against a country more than 20 times the area of Israel.
“Russia first used Iranian-made Shahad drones in conjunction with a missile attack on October 10, 2022, a barrage aimed at Ukraine’s infrastructure, This included a total of 84 missiles and 24 UAVs. Only about half of the Russian missiles were intercepted.
“This compares to 185 drones, 110 ballistic missiles and 30 cruise missiles launched by Iran towards Israel.”
https://elderofziyon.blogspot.com/2024/04/it-was-one-of-largest-such-combined.html
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Got that? One of the largest attacks in modern warfare. This was not just a “token” attack; it was meant to do serious damage. A country does not launch that amount of weaponry without serious intent.
We note as well that this is the first time Iran has attacked Israel from its own territory; previously it employed proxies – Hezbollah, the Houthis in Yemen; Hamas and Islamic Jihad. This represents an escalation. (I note here that some small number of the projectiles on Saturday night came from the Houthis in Yemen, but none from Hezbollah, which likely signals an attempt by Hezbollah to avoid being a target in an Israeli retaliation.)
Israel has not deal with anything like this since the Yom Kippur War in 1993.
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How then, did Israel avoid serious damage from this attack? I spoke in my last posting about a “nes” – a miracle. It was a miracle, but miracles are not necessarily dramatic supernatural events such as the splitting of the sea. Miracles can come via ordinary events that surface at the right time. That is what we have here:
What has been revealed is that Iran alerted Gulf states – including Saudi Arabia and the UAE – about the impending attack. The Saudis (Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, de facto Saudi ruler, is pictured below) and United Arab Emirates alerted the US, which alerted Israel. Thus were Israel and the US well-prepared to “receive” the onslaught of drones and missiles.
What we have seen then are the fruits of the Abraham Accords – negotiated by Jared Kushner during the Trump administration – and a shifting alliance of critical importance in the Middle East.
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A response from Israel is imperative now.
For years the world has remained passive in the face of the growing strength of Iran. For years the world has rationalized the wisdom of letting matters be. The warnings by Prime Minister Netanyahu about the dangers of Iranian nuclear development were ignored.
But even putting aside the incredible danger of a nuclear Iran, there has been the unfolding of Iranian plans to encircle Israel with jihadi forces. I remember all too clearly when an appeal was made to then-president Obama that the agreement with Iran that he was negotiating include provisions forbidding monies that would come from the lifting of sanctions to be used to support terrorist forces such as Hezbollah. He refused.
That encirclement is strengthening now with increased Iranian-supported terrorism in Judea & Samaria, and I will return to this in future posts.
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Michael Oren, former Israeli ambassador to the US, has written now about the culpability of America in creating the current dangerous situation regarding Iran. An important read (emphasis added):
“…the bulk of the blame, fair historians will likely agree, will have to fall on the policies of those in Washington who sought to appease Iran at almost any price and ignore its serial aggressions…
“…on Sunday, a historic first: Tehran directly attacked Israel from its territory with hundreds of drones and missiles.
“Press reports about President Biden’s refusal to support an Israeli counterattack against Iran indicate, sadly, that nothing substantial in the U.S. position has changed. He has reportedly urged Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to see the coordinated response to the attack as a “win.”
“The Iranians, though, will not see things that way. Tehran will see this weekend’s direct attack on Israel as a victory—their own—for their ability to continue threatening Israel and destabilizing the Middle East with impunity. If Israel follows Biden’s advice it will send one message to the ayatollahs: “You can launch another 350 missiles and drones at Israel or try to kill Israelis by other means. Either way, the United States won’t stop you.
“Israel, of course, must respond differently. Our target cannot simply be the Iranian proxies that surround our country and that have waged war on us since October 7, but, as the Saudis call it, ‘the head of the snake’.”
https://www.thefp.com/p/michael-oren-iran-biden-obama
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Oren’s point about the Iranians seeing what happened as their “victory” is an important one. What most Westerners do not understand is that Muslim culture is honor/shame based. It is about the appearance of winning, not de facto military victory.
Iran’s objective wasn’t military. It was psychological. It needed to restore its “honor.” American diplomat Richard Haas has just written about this (emphasis added):
“Just reading Iranian media shows this. They are congratulating themselves on the few missiles that made it through Israel’s defenses. And now they are bragging that Israel’s defenses are not ‘impenetrable’ which no one ever said.
“Honor is the coin of the realm in the Middle East. And honor, almost by definition, includes lying in order to avoid shame.
“Iran has to claim victory. Even if Israel has stopped 100% of the projectiles, today’s headlines in Iranian media would be about the amount of effort and time and money Israel spent, how it relied on other allies and couldn’t defend itself alone, how this was one of the biggest attacks in history. They would be trying to ascribe honor to themselves and shame to Israel.
“Facts don’t matter. The results were of little importance, as long as Iran can twist facts to claim victory.
“Just like Egypt in 1973. Just like Hamas in all previous Gaza wars. The facts don’t matter because honor is the point, military victory is secondary.
“The entire Middle East conflict is an attempt by Middle Eastern Muslims to erase the shame of a small number of weak, dhimmi Jews defeating them in 1948 and 1967. If you want a root cause, that’s it.
“People who do not understand the importance of honor and shame to Israel’s enemies cannot possibly be Middle East experts.
“Once you understand the honor/shame dynamic, you realize that the only real solution is Israeli victory that cannot be denied. This is why Muslims are deferential to Christian-majority Europe – because they lost to them, definitively. That is the reason Bahrain and the UAE wanted peace – they realized Israel isn’t going anywhere.
“Undisputed Israeli strength is the only peace plan that makes sense. Unless you want another Holocaust.”
https://elderofziyon.blogspot.com/2024/04/again-it-is-all-about-honor-if-you-dont.html
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One other very salient point must be made here:
The Iranians are claiming that their attack was retribution for the killing of Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a senior commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, in a bombing of the Iranian embassy in Syria (for which Israel in fact never claimed credit). They say that international law and the UN Charter justify this action, which is not the case.
While they attempt to justify themselves by making this argument, they have ignored the single most important factor in this incident: Zahedi was deeply involved in the planning and execution of the October 7 massacre.
Not only does this mean Zahedi deserved to die. This information directly ties Iran to the massacre. It is broadly thought of as an operation of Hamas, but Hamas is merely an Iranian proxy.
It is Iran that organized it and promoted it and presumably funded it. And I would suggest that this is where the line absolutely must be drawn. The nation that planned and executed the murder – and rape, and torture, and mutilation – of 1,200 of our innocent civilians must know that this is where we call a halt.
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The decision has been made to retaliate militarily in a “clear and decisive” manner.
The IDF and the War Cabinet are now mulling the form that this retaliation will take. There will be an effort made to arrive at a decision that will not provoke an escalation to a larger war and may even be acceptable to the US – but that will deliver the necessary message of strength to Iran. This is a message that must be delivered.
Others will not likely understand this, of course, but we will be acting for a better world and not just for ourselves.
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Let your elected leaders in the US know that it is not only the progressive left that votes – that you are demanding support for Israel, especially during this difficult time.
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Keep praying to Heaven for Israel. Pray with fervor for the strength and wisdom of our leaders, for the safety of our soldiers, and for the rescue of our hostages. Pray with a heart filled with hope.
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© Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by independent journalist Arlene Kushner. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution.
